Expected Value (EV) Calculator
See whether a bet is positive or negative EV before you place it.
Enter the odds, your stake, and your estimate of the true win probability. The calculator returns the expected value in dollars and as a percentage of your stake, so you know if a bet is +EV.
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Everything behind the numbers
What is expected value in betting?
Expected value (EV) is the average profit or loss a bet would return if you placed it many times. Positive EV means the bet is profitable long term; negative EV means it bleeds money over time, no matter how a single bet lands.
How expected value is calculated
EV = (win probability x profit if you win) minus (loss probability x stake). If a $100 bet at +120 has a true 50% chance, EV = (0.5 x $120) minus (0.5 x $100) = +$10, a 10% edge.
How to find your true win probability
The honest input is your estimate of the real chance, not the book's. A good shortcut is the no-vig probability from a sharp market: devig the line, use that as your true probability, and the EV calculator shows whether a softer price elsewhere is +EV.
Turn +EV into real money on BettorEdge
Finding +EV is half the battle; getting the price is the other half. Because BettorEdge prices come from a market with no house margin, more of your edge survives, which is exactly what compounds over a season.
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Frequently asked questions
What is a positive EV bet?+
A bet whose expected value is greater than zero. Over the long run it returns a profit, because your true win probability is higher than the price implies.
How do I calculate EV for a bet?+
Multiply your win probability by the profit if you win, then subtract your loss probability times your stake. The calculator does it once you enter odds, stake, and your win probability.
Where do I get the win probability to use?+
Estimate the true chance yourself, or use the no-vig probability from a sharp market as a proxy. Garbage in, garbage out: the EV is only as good as your probability.
Is positive EV betting profitable?+
Yes, over a large sample, as long as your probability estimates are accurate and you actually get the prices. Better prices, like a marketplace with no vig, raise your EV on every bet.