Closing Line Value Calculator
Did you beat the closing line? Find out in percentage points and cents.
You beat the closing line.
Your price implied 47.6%, and the vig-free closing number was 48.9%. That is +1.30 percentage points of edge, worth +$2.72 per $100 staked if the close is the true price.
Closing line value measures whether your price was better than the market's final, sharpest number. It says nothing about whether a single bet won, which is the point: results are noisy over a season, but consistently beating the close is the clearest sign you are pricing bets well.
Enter the price you took and both sides of the closing market. The calculator strips the vig out of the close, compares it against your number, and tells you whether you beat it and what that edge is worth.
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How the Closing Line Value Calculator works
What is closing line value?
Closing line value is the gap between the price you got and the market's final price on the same bet. The closing number is the sharpest estimate the market produces, because it has absorbed every injury, every lineup change and all the money bet into it. Consistently getting a better number than the close is the strongest available evidence that you are pricing bets well.
Why CLV matters more than your record
A single season is far too short to separate skill from variance on results alone. You can bet well and lose, or badly and win. CLV moves that judgement forward: it scores the decision at the moment you made it, against the best benchmark available, instead of waiting on outcomes that are mostly noise in the short run.
Why you need both sides of the close
A raw closing price still has the book's margin baked into it. Comparing your number against that raw price flatters you by whatever the vig happens to be. Entering both closing sides lets the calculator strip the hold out first, so the comparison is against the market's true estimate rather than its retail price.
How to use closing line value
Log the closing number on every bet you place, then track your average CLV over a large sample. A small positive average sustained across hundreds of bets is a much stronger signal than a hot month of results. If your CLV is consistently negative, the bets are losing value at the moment you place them, however the results look.
How to read your closing line value
CLV is measured in percentage points of probability, not in wins. A bet at +110 when the vig-free close was 48.9% carries about 1.3 points of edge, which is worth roughly $2.70 per $100 staked if the closing number is the true price. One bet at that edge tells you very little. Two hundred of them tells you almost everything.
| Average CLV | What it means |
|---|---|
| Below 0 | You are giving up value at the moment you bet. Results may still look fine over a short run, but the process is losing. |
| 0 to 1 point | Roughly matching the market. Beating the vig from here depends on getting a better price than a retail book charges. |
| 1 to 2 points | A real, sustainable edge if it holds over hundreds of bets. This is where most winning bettors actually live. |
| Above 2 points | Strong. Worth checking the sample is large and the closing numbers were recorded accurately before believing it. |
Unlike the modeling tools on this site, this calculation involves no assumptions. Given the three prices you enter, the answer is exact arithmetic.
To strip the vig from any two-way market on its own, use the no-vig calculator. To see how much margin a book is holding, use the hold calculator, and to lock up a position you already hold, use the hedge calculator.
Frequently asked questions
What is closing line value in betting?+
Closing line value, or CLV, is the difference between the odds you took and the odds the same bet closed at. Beating the close means you got a better price than the market's final estimate, which over a large sample is the clearest sign of an edge.
How do you calculate closing line value?+
Convert your price and both closing prices to implied probabilities, remove the vig from the closing pair to get the fair closing probability, then compare it with the probability your price implied. The gap, in percentage points, is your CLV.
Is beating the closing line enough to be profitable?+
Not on its own, but it is the strongest leading indicator there is. Consistently beating the close means you are getting better prices than the market's final number, which is what long-run profit is built on.
Why do I need both sides of the closing line?+
Because the raw closing price includes the book's margin. Without the other side you cannot strip that vig out, and your CLV will look better than it really is.