Expected Value (EV) Calculator
See whether a bet is positive or negative EV before you place it.
This calculator tells you whether a bet is +EV. Enter the odds, your stake, and your estimate of the true win probability, and it returns the expected value in dollars and as a percentage of your stake.
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How the Expected Value Calculator works
What is expected value in betting?
Expected value (EV) is the average profit or loss a bet would return if you placed it many times. Positive EV means the bet is profitable long term; negative EV means it bleeds money over time, no matter how a single bet lands.
How to calculate EV in sports betting
EV = (win probability x profit if you win) minus (loss probability x stake). If a $100 bet at +120 has a true 50% chance, EV = (0.5 x $120) minus (0.5 x $100) = +$10, a 10% edge.
The expected value formula with decimal odds
With decimal odds the formula shortens: EV as a share of stake = (win probability x decimal odds) minus 1. The same +120 bet is 2.20 decimal, so 0.50 x 2.20 - 1 = +0.10, a 10% edge. Multiply by your stake for the expected winnings in dollars: +$10 on $100.
Value bet calculator: how to find +EV bets
A value bet is any price that pays more than its true chance deserves. The honest input is your estimate of the real chance, not the book's. A good shortcut is the no-vig probability from a sharp market: devig the line, use that as your true probability, and the calculator shows whether a softer price elsewhere is +EV.
Turn +EV into real money on BettorEdge
Finding +EV is half the battle; getting the price is the other half. Because BettorEdge prices come from a market with no house margin, more of your edge survives, which is exactly what compounds over a season.
Expected value of a -110 bet by win probability
The average result of a $100 bet at -110 at each true win rate. Break-even is 52.4%: below it the bet loses money over time, above it every extra point of win rate is worth about $1.91 per bet. Enter your own odds and probability above for any other price.
| True win probability | EV per $100 | EV % of stake |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | -$8.36 | -8.4% |
| 50% | -$4.55 | -4.5% |
| 52% | -$0.73 | -0.7% |
| 53% | +$1.18 | +1.2% |
| 54% | +$3.09 | +3.1% |
| 55% | +$5.00 | +5.0% |
| 56% | +$6.91 | +6.9% |
| 58% | +$10.73 | +10.7% |
| 60% | +$14.55 | +14.5% |
Need a true probability to plug in? Devig a sharp two-way line with the no-vig calculator, then compare it to the price you can actually get.
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Frequently asked questions
What is a positive EV bet?+
A bet whose expected value is greater than zero. Over the long run it returns a profit, because your true win probability is higher than the price implies.
How do I calculate EV for a bet?+
Multiply your win probability by the profit if you win, then subtract your loss probability times your stake. The calculator does it once you enter odds, stake, and your win probability.
Is a -110 bet +EV?+
Only if it wins more than about 52.4% of the time, the break-even rate at -110. At a true 55% a $100 bet at -110 is worth +$5.00 per bet on average; at 50% it is worth -$4.55. The table below shows the EV at every win rate from 48% to 60%.
Where do I get the win probability to use?+
Estimate the true chance yourself, or use the no-vig probability from a sharp market as a proxy. Garbage in, garbage out: the EV is only as good as your probability.
Is positive EV betting profitable?+
Yes, over a large sample, as long as your probability estimates are accurate and you actually get the prices. Better prices, like a marketplace with no vig, raise your EV on every bet.