Money Line to Win Percentage Conversion Table
- Greg Kajewski
- Jul 11
- 8 min read
Updated: Jul 15
Moneyline odds help you understand betting payouts and the likelihood of outcomes. They show how much you need to bet on favorites (negative odds) or how much you stand to gain from underdogs (positive odds). By converting these odds into implied win percentages, you can assess the likelihood of a result and compare it with your own predictions.
Here’s a quick breakdown:
- Negative odds (e.g., -150): Use the formula to find the win percentage. Example: -150 = 60%.
- Positive odds (e.g., +200): Use the formula . Example: +200 = 33.3%.
- Implied probability: Combines odds into percentages but includes the sportsbook’s profit margin, often exceeding 100%.
The provided table converts common odds into win percentages, simplifying the process. For less common odds, tools like the BettorEdge Implied Probability Calculator offer precise conversions. Use these insights to identify value bets where your analysis differs from the implied probabilities.
How To Convert Moneyline To Probability? - The Friendly Statistician
How to Convert Moneyline Odds to Win Percentage
Now that we’ve explored implied probabilities, let’s dive into converting moneyline odds into win percentages. This process requires different formulas depending on whether the odds are for favorites (negative odds) or underdogs (positive odds). These calculations reveal the implied probability behind each bet, offering valuable insights. Here’s how it works step by step.
Formula for Negative Odds (Favorites)
Negative odds, like -150 or -200, indicate a favorite. To convert these odds into a win percentage, use this formula:
Probability = |Odds| / (|Odds| + 100)
The absolute value bars mean you ignore the negative sign and treat the number as positive. For example, if the odds are -150:
150 / (150 + 100) = 0.60 (60%)
This tells you that the sportsbook is implying a 60% chance of the Warriors winning the game.
Formula for Positive Odds (Underdogs)
Positive odds, such as +300, represent an underdog. The formula for converting these odds is slightly different:
Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)
Let’s say the odds are +300. Plugging into the formula:
100 / (300 + 100) = 100 / 400 = 0.25 (25%)
This means the sportsbook is suggesting a 25% chance of the underdog pulling off a win.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Don’t mix up the formulas. Use the correct one based on whether the odds are negative or positive. For negative odds, drop the minus sign before calculating.
- Double-check your results. Favorites should always yield probabilities above 50%, while underdogs should fall below 50%.
Complete Moneyline to Win Percentage Table
Here’s a handy table that translates common moneyline odds into their implied win probabilities. It’s a quick way to grasp what the sportsbook predicts about any matchup.
How to Read the Table
The table pairs moneyline odds with their corresponding win percentages. Negative odds signify the favorite (win percentage above 50%), while positive odds represent the underdog (win percentage below 50%).
Notice how the percentages shift as the odds change. For instance, a team listed at -200 has a 66.7% implied win probability, but if the odds move to -300, the probability jumps to 75%. On the flip side, underdog odds of +200 imply a 33.3% chance, while +300 drops that to 25%.
Moneyline Odds and Win Percentage Chart
Moneyline | Win % | Moneyline | Win % |
-400 | 80.0% | +400 | 20.0% |
-350 | 77.8% | +350 | 22.2% |
-300 | 75.0% | +300 | 25.0% |
-250 | 71.4% | +250 | 28.6% |
-200 | 66.7% | +200 | 33.3% |
-180 | 64.3% | +180 | 35.7% |
-160 | 61.5% | +160 | 38.5% |
-150 | 60.0% | +150 | 40.0% |
-140 | 58.3% | +140 | 41.7% |
-130 | 56.5% | +130 | 43.5% |
-120 | 54.5% | +120 | 45.5% |
-110 | 52.4% | +110 | 47.6% |
-105 | 51.2% | +105 | 48.8% |
-100 | 50.0% | +100 | 50.0% |
This chart makes it easy to assess implied probabilities and spot potential value in betting opportunities.
How to Use This Table for Betting
This table is a time-saver for evaluating bets. Instead of calculating probabilities from scratch, you can immediately see, for example, that a -150 favorite has a 60% implied win chance, while a +130 underdog sits at 43.5%.
To find value, compare these percentages with your own game analysis. If your predicted win probability for a team is higher than the implied percentage, there could be an opportunity worth exploring. This table streamlines the process, complementing the formulas discussed earlier.
"When people decide how to bet on a game, first they identify who is going to win. The faster and easier it is, the less concerned they are with correcting that intuition when answering the more difficult question of whether the favorite is going to beat the point spread."– Joseph Simmons, Associate Professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School
This quote underscores the importance of precise percentages. Small differences - like the gap between a 55% and a 65% favorite - can have a big impact on risk and reward, ultimately influencing your long-term betting success.
BettorEdge Implied Probability Calculator
For odds that fall outside the examples in our table, the BettorEdge Implied Probability Calculator is your go-to tool for quick and precise conversions. While the table covers many common odds, you'll sometimes face unusual numbers or need to work with different formats. That’s when this calculator becomes indispensable, ensuring you get accurate results without the hassle of manual math.
How to Access the Calculator
Accessing the BettorEdge Implied Probability Calculator is simple. Just head to https://www.bettoredge.com/implied-probability-calculator. The tool is compatible with any device, so whether you're at home analyzing matchups or making decisions on the fly, it’s always within reach.
Its clean, straightforward interface allows you to convert moneyline odds in seconds, letting you focus on refining your betting strategy instead of crunching numbers.
When to Use the Calculator
This calculator shines in several scenarios:
- Live betting: Odds can shift rapidly, like -187 or +243, and you need precise probability calculations in real-time.
- Nonstandard odds: While tables often show rounded figures like -150 or +200, sportsbooks frequently present odds like -163 or +127. The calculator handles these exact numbers effortlessly, giving you the implied probability without any guesswork.
- Odds format conversion: If you’re betting across platforms or international markets, the tool converts between American, decimal, and fractional odds seamlessly.
Why the Calculator Matters
The BettorEdge calculator isn’t just about convenience - it’s about accuracy and smarter betting. It eliminates the risk of manual errors and saves time by delivering instant results. Plus, its ability to switch between different odds formats makes it a versatile companion for bettors using multiple platforms.
More importantly, it helps you make informed decisions. For instance, instead of wondering if -174 odds are worth your bet, the calculator reveals the implied probability of 63.5%. Armed with this data, you can compare it to your own analysis and identify value opportunities. This approach promotes rational, data-backed decisions and can give you an edge in finding profitable bets.
With its speed, precision, and versatility, the BettorEdge Implied Probability Calculator is a must-have tool for anyone serious about refining their betting strategy.
Summary and BettorEdge Benefits
Moneyline Conversion Recap
Let’s quickly revisit how to convert moneyline odds into win percentages. Negative odds (like –150) indicate favorites with win probabilities over 50%, while positive odds (like +150) represent underdogs with win probabilities below 50%. By translating these odds into implied probabilities, you can compare your own assessment of a team's chances with what the odds suggest. This comparison helps you spot value bets - situations where your estimated probability is higher than the implied probability.
The formulas for these conversions depend on whether the odds are positive or negative, as outlined earlier. Whether you crunch the numbers yourself or rely on tools like our conversion table or the Implied Probability Calculator, this process is crucial for identifying smart bets, avoiding bad ones, and managing your risk effectively.
How BettorEdge Gives You an Advantage
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Get Started with BettorEdge
Kick things off with our Implied Probability Calculator to instantly convert odds into actionable insights.
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FAQs
How can I use the Moneyline to Win Percentage Conversion Table to find value bets?
The Moneyline to Win Percentage Conversion Table is a handy tool for identifying potential value bets. It works by comparing the implied probability derived from the moneyline to your own evaluation of a team's likelihood of winning. If your calculated probability is higher than the implied probability, it might signal a value bet worth considering.
For instance, imagine a team's moneyline reflects a 70% chance of winning, but your analysis suggests their chances are closer to 80%. That gap could indicate an opportunity where the odds might lean in your favor. Spotting these differences allows you to zero in on bets that could offer better returns, helping you make more informed and potentially profitable decisions.
What should I avoid when converting moneyline odds into win percentages?
When converting American moneyline odds into win percentages, there are a few common mistakes you’ll want to avoid. One big one? Overlooking the vigorish (or 'juice') that sportsbooks build into the odds. This extra margin can distort the implied probabilities, so it’s crucial to factor it in when calculating the actual chances.
Another common misstep is using the wrong formula for the type of odds you're working with. Here's a quick refresher:
- For negative odds (favorites), the formula is: .
- For positive odds (underdogs), use: .
Taking the time to double-check your math can help ensure your calculations are spot-on. By sidestepping these errors, you’ll get a clearer picture of a team’s true likelihood of winning based on the moneyline odds.
How can the BettorEdge Implied Probability Calculator improve my betting decisions?
The BettorEdge Implied Probability Calculator makes betting easier by translating American odds into straightforward win probabilities. This gives you a clearer picture of how likely an outcome is, helping you make smarter betting choices.
When you compare the implied probability with your personal evaluation of a team's chances, you can spot opportunities for value bets. This method can refine your strategy and boost your odds of consistent success over time. It's a must-have tool for anyone aiming to bet with greater confidence and precision.
