Win Probability Calculator
Turn a point spread into each team's real chance of winning the game.
Enter the spread as the favorite lays it, for example -7. Win probability is the chance that side wins the game outright, not the chance it covers: a fairly priced spread is close to a coin flip against the number. The fair moneylines carry no vig, so they are what the two sides would pay in a market with no house margin.
Pick a sport and enter the point spread. The calculator converts that spread into each team's probability of winning the game outright, and shows the no-vig moneyline those probabilities imply.
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Everything behind the numbers
How a spread becomes a win probability
The spread is the market's best estimate of the final margin. Real margins scatter around that estimate roughly along a normal distribution, so the chance the favorite wins outright is the chance the final margin lands above zero. The wider a sport's scoring spread, the less a given number of points is worth.
Why sport matters
A 7-point NFL favorite is not the same bet as a 7-point college football favorite. College football margins scatter much further from the spread than NFL margins do, so the same number converts to a lower win probability. The sport selector applies the right scatter for each league.
Winning outright is not covering
These probabilities describe winning the game, not covering the spread. A fairly priced spread is close to a coin flip against the number by design, which is why both sides are usually priced near -110. The two questions have different answers, and this tool answers the first one.
Turning probability into a price
Once you have a win probability you can read the fair moneyline it implies, with no house margin attached. Compare that against what you are actually being offered: the gap between the fair number and the posted number is the vig you are paying.
Point spread to win probability chart
The chance the favorite wins the game outright at each spread, by sport. The same number is worth noticeably less in college football than in the NFL, because college margins scatter further from the closing line. The classic key numbers, 3 and 7, are highlighted.
| Spread | NFL | College FB | NBA | College BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 53.0% | 52.5% | 53.5% | 53.6% |
| -1.5 | 54.4% | 53.7% | 55.2% | 55.4% |
| -2.5 | 57.3% | 56.2% | 58.6% | 59.0% |
| -3key number | 58.8% | 57.4% | 60.3% | 60.7% |
| -3.5 | 60.2% | 58.7% | 62.0% | 62.5% |
| -4.5 | 63.1% | 61.1% | 65.2% | 65.9% |
| -6.5 | 68.5% | 65.8% | 71.4% | 72.3% |
| -7key number | 69.8% | 66.9% | 72.9% | 73.8% |
| -7.5 | 71.1% | 68.0% | 74.3% | 75.2% |
| -10 | 77.1% | 73.4% | 80.8% | 81.8% |
| -10.5 | 78.2% | 74.4% | 81.9% | 83.0% |
| -14 | 85.0% | 80.9% | 88.8% | 89.8% |
| -17.5 | 90.3% | 86.3% | 93.6% | 94.4% |
| -21 | 94.0% | 90.5% | 96.6% | 97.2% |
| -28 | 98.1% | 96.0% | 99.3% | 99.5% |
| -35 | 99.5% | 98.6% | 99.9% | 99.9% |
How these are calculated. Final margins land approximately normally around the closing spread. The favorite's win probability is the share of that distribution above zero. The scatter used per sport is roughly NFL 13.5, College FB 16, NBA 11.5, College BB 11 points of standard deviation. Those are widely used estimates rather than exact constants, so treat the output as a well-grounded approximation, not a precise forecast. Low-scoring sports like baseball and hockey are left out on purpose: their margins are not normally distributed, so this method would mislead there.
Starting from a moneyline instead of a spread? Use the implied probability calculator. To strip the vig out of a two-way price, use the no-vig calculator, or read what a specific number means on the -7 spread page.
Frequently asked questions
How do you calculate win probability from a point spread?+
Treat the spread as the expected final margin and assume real margins scatter around it approximately normally. The favorite's win probability is the share of that distribution above zero, which works out to the normal CDF of the spread divided by the sport's margin standard deviation.
How often does a 7-point favorite win?+
In the NFL, a 7-point favorite wins outright roughly 70 percent of the time. In college football the same 7-point favorite wins closer to 67 percent, because college margins scatter further from the spread.
Is win probability the same as implied probability?+
No. Implied probability is the win rate a price is pricing in, and you get it from odds. Win probability here comes from the point spread instead. Use the implied probability calculator when you are starting from a moneyline.
Does this predict who covers the spread?+
No. A fairly priced spread sits close to 50/50 against the number by design. This calculates the chance a team wins the game outright, which is a different question from whether it covers.