NHL Home vs. Away Betting Trends 2025
- Greg Kajewski
- 4 hours ago
- 8 min read
Bet smarter this NHL season with these key 2025 betting trends:
- Home teams win 56.6% of games outright, while away teams take 43.4%.
- Underdogs cover the puck line (+1.5) 60% of the time, making them a strong option.
- Home-ice advantage remains steady at 54%, but ATS (Against the Spread) records for both home and away teams are even at 50%.
- Home underdogs shine, covering ATS at 63.9%, while home favorites struggle with a 41.8% cover rate.
- Unders slightly outperform overs, hitting 51.2% of the time.
Quick Tip: Look beyond win rates - factors like rest days, travel fatigue, and goaltender rotations can heavily influence outcomes. Platforms like BettorEdge offer tools to refine your strategy by analyzing these trends.
Use this data to make informed, strategic wagers throughout the 2025 NHL season.
1. NHL Home Team Betting Trends 2025
Performance Metrics
When looking at home team performance in betting roles, home favorites are winning 64.1% of the time, with a record of 555-231-54-26. Meanwhile, home underdogs are securing wins at a 44.4% rate, with a record of 232-240-40-10. These numbers highlight the influence of home-ice advantage but also remind us that it doesn't guarantee profitable outcomes.
"Home-ice advantage is pretty much on par with where it landed last year, with home teams winning about 54% of the time."
Moneyline data further breaks this down: home favorites are winning at 61.2%, while home underdogs sit at 43.4%. While these stats offer a solid foundation for evaluating team performance, they don't always translate directly into profitable betting opportunities.
Profitability
Profitability for home teams largely depends on your betting strategy. Home underdogs have been a bright spot this season, with an impressive against-the-spread (ATS) record of 329-186, covering at a 63.9% rate. This makes them one of the more appealing options for NHL bettors. On the other hand, home favorites have struggled in spread betting, posting an ATS record of 367-511, which translates to a disappointing 41.8% cover rate.
For instance, the Winnipeg Jets have excelled, winning 80% of their 30 home games, while the New York Islanders have struggled, winning only 27% of their 22 home contests. These disparities significantly impact unit profits.
Odds Patterns
Oddsmakers have adjusted their pricing in response to these trends. Home teams cover the puck line (+1.5) at a 63.9% rate, closely aligned with the implied 64.2%. However, covering the puck line (-1.5) has proven tougher, with a success rate of 39.3% compared to the implied 40.2%. This balanced moneyline pricing underscores the importance of selecting bets based on specific matchups rather than broad trends.
Market Insights
Bettors are finding success by digging into factors that go beyond traditional metrics. Variables like rest days, goaltender rotations, and travel schedules can significantly influence home team performance. Teams coming off extended breaks tend to outperform those wrapping up long road trips.
"Betting Trends normally leans to favorites and over wagers since the betting public isn't always keen to play underdogs, especially when you have to win outright and almost everybody loves seeing goals scored."
Platforms like BettorEdge add a social element to betting, allowing users to share strategies and track performance. Canadian teams often create unique opportunities due to "hometown bias", where heavy local betting inflates lines for popular home teams. This can open up value for betting on their opponents. Advanced analytics - like Corsi, Expected Goals, and GSAA - also help identify teams whose home records might not reflect their true performance.
2. NHL Away Team Betting Trends 2025
Performance Metrics
Away teams have faced challenges during the 2025 NHL season. Moneyline data shows they win just 43.4% of games outright, falling short of the overall league average of 45.8% . However, road underdogs have shown slight improvement from last season, managing to win about 40.6% of their games. These stats set the foundation for evaluating the profitability of betting on road teams.
Profitability
When it comes to the spread, away teams have covered exactly 50.0% of the time, making spread bets on road teams almost a coin toss. Performance varies widely by team, though. The Washington Capitals have been a standout underdog, securing 14 wins in 21 games and generating a profit of $11.08. On the other hand, the Nashville Predators have struggled, with just 2 wins in 15 games, resulting in a $10.23 loss.
Odds Patterns
NHL betting offers unique quirks that sharp bettors can exploit. Canadian teams often see inflated lines due to hometown bias, which can create value for those betting against them. Another key factor is how heavily NHL odds react to goaltender announcements. Lineup changes involving goalies tend to shift odds significantly more than similar changes in other sports. Despite these nuances, road underdogs continue to face difficulties on the moneyline, with a historically low winning rate of 35.6%.
Market Insights
Understanding market behavior adds another layer of insight into betting on road teams. Bettors generally favor favorites and over wagers, avoiding underdogs - especially in road games where outright wins are required. This bias creates opportunities for those willing to go against the grain.
Interestingly, factors like extended road trips or back-to-back away games don’t consistently impact a team’s likelihood of winning. Instead of dismissing teams on long road swings outright, bettors should evaluate these situations on a case-by-case basis.
Platforms like BettorEdge highlight these market inefficiencies, helping users identify undervalued away teams. Public perception often diverges from actual performance, creating opportunities for savvy bettors. Teams like the Washington Capitals demonstrate how strong road play can offer consistent betting value throughout the season.
NHL Betting Tips & Strategies | 6 Ways To Win Betting on Hockey
Home vs. Away Betting Comparison
The 2025 NHL season highlights a noticeable gap in performance between home and away teams, which plays a crucial role in shaping betting strategies. Recognizing these differences can help bettors make smarter wagers.
Performance Breakdown
Home teams enjoy a clear edge in the NHL, winning 56.6% of their games compared to the 43.4% win rate of away teams. The season's records - home teams at 788-474-95-36 and road teams at 605-630-117-41 - underline this disparity. The 13.2 percentage point difference is one of the most consistent advantages seen in professional sports betting.
When focusing on moneyline outcomes, home teams come out on top 54.2% of the time, while away teams succeed in 45.8% of games. This gap provides opportunities for bettors to tailor their strategies based on team location.
Metric | Home Teams | Away Teams | Difference |
Win Rate | 56.6% | 43.4% | +13.2% |
Moneyline Win % | 54.2% | 45.8% | +8.4% |
ATS Record | 696-697 (50.0%) | 697-696 (50.0%) | Even |
Against the Spread Analysis
While home teams dominate in straight-up wins, the story changes when looking at ATS (Against the Spread) performance. Both home and away teams cover the spread at an identical rate of 50.0% - home teams with a 696-697 record and away teams at 697-696. This balance suggests that oddsmakers effectively account for home-ice advantage when setting spreads, leaving no clear edge in ATS betting. To uncover profitable opportunities, bettors need to dig deeper into matchup specifics.
Favorite vs. Underdog Dynamics
Breaking it down further, home favorites win 64.1% of the time, compared to 55.6% for road favorites. This 8.5 percentage point gap showcases how home-ice advantage amplifies the success of favored teams.
Underdogs follow a similar pattern but with narrower margins. Home underdogs win 44.4% of their games, outperforming away underdogs, who win only 35.9%. Road underdogs face the dual challenge of playing away from home while being the less-favored team, making their path to victory even steeper.
Strategic Betting Implications
While home-ice advantage is evident, profitable betting requires a deeper dive into specifics. With ATS records essentially balanced, analyzing factors like team form, matchups, and situational dynamics becomes critical.
One key factor is rest. Teams with three or more days of rest often outperform those on back-to-back schedules. This scheduling detail can significantly influence outcomes, making it a vital consideration for bettors.
Platforms like BettorEdge provide tools to help bettors capitalize on these nuances. By allowing users to set their own odds and identify inefficiencies, BettorEdge enables a data-driven approach to refining betting strategies based on home-away trends.
Market Efficiency Considerations
The 50-50 ATS split highlights how well the market prices in home-ice advantage. Oddsmakers adjust point spreads to balance betting action, meaning win rates alone don't guarantee a betting edge. However, the improved performance of road underdogs - now winning around 40.6% of the time - suggests that market adjustments may not always keep pace with evolving trends. This lag can create value for sharp bettors who stay ahead of the curve by identifying and exploiting these subtle shifts.
Conclusion
The 2025 NHL season highlights a noticeable home-ice advantage, with home teams winning about 54% of moneyline bets compared to 46% for away teams. Betting on home underdogs has proven particularly lucrative, with teams like the Washington Capitals standing out as strong examples.
Beyond moneyline bets, puck line and Over/Under wagers offer additional opportunities for profit. Underdogs cover the +1.5 puck line approximately 60% of the time, while games with a total of 6.5 goals tend to go under about 57% of the time. These insights provide a solid foundation for bettors aiming to make more precise, data-driven decisions, especially with the help of BettorEdge's advanced tools.
BettorEdge's peer-to-peer model takes full advantage of these NHL betting trends. By eliminating the vig, users enjoy a 40% chance of profitability - compared to just 2% with traditional sportsbooks. This no-vig approach makes bettors 20 times more likely to turn a profit. Combined with features like advanced analytics, detailed bet tracking, and a social betting community, BettorEdge empowers users to spot profitable opportunities - whether it’s backing a value-packed home underdog or steering clear of an overpriced road favorite.
FAQs
How do rest days and travel fatigue impact NHL betting trends?
Rest days and travel fatigue are key factors that can influence NHL betting trends. Teams with more rest tend to perform at a higher level since fatigue can take a toll on both stamina and decision-making. On the other hand, teams enduring long road trips or playing back-to-back games often struggle to maintain their peak performance, which can lead to less favorable outcomes.
Home teams also enjoy certain advantages, such as the comfort of familiar surroundings, less travel-related stress, and the boost from a supportive crowd. These elements often give them an edge over their opponents. For bettors, paying attention to these dynamics is essential. When one team is dealing with fatigue or uneven rest, it can open up opportunities to spot value in the betting lines.
Why are home underdogs a smart betting choice in the 2025 NHL season?
In the 2025 NHL season, home underdogs have turned into an exciting option for bettors, thanks to their steady performance and potential for strong returns. Home teams, in general, enjoy the benefits of a home-ice advantage, boasting an overall win rate of about 54%. When it comes to home underdogs specifically, their moneyline win rate sits at roughly 43.4%, often translating into profitable outcomes.
Beyond the moneyline, there’s also value in backing underdogs on the puck line. Trends indicate these teams often perform well in certain matchups, especially when factors like fatigue, travel schedules, and goaltender performance come into play. For bettors looking to make strategic wagers, home underdogs this season bring a promising blend of risk and reward.
Why is it challenging for oddsmakers to set accurate lines for NHL road underdogs?
Oddsmakers often struggle to set accurate odds for NHL road underdogs because hockey is notoriously unpredictable. With factors like a goalie’s performance, the breakneck speed of the game, and sudden momentum swings, predicting outcomes in hockey can be trickier than in other sports. As a result, odds sometimes lean more toward public opinion than a team’s actual potential.
Road teams face their own set of challenges, too. Travel fatigue and the mental strain of playing in hostile arenas can take a toll. Yet, history shows that road underdogs occasionally defy expectations, especially when public sentiment underestimates their abilities. These layers of unpredictability make it tough to consistently nail down the right betting lines for road underdogs.
