2025 Chicago Bears Betting Outlook: Over/Under Insights

Greg Kajewski
3 days ago
4 min read

Updated: 2 days ago

The Chicago Bears are once again a hot topic in the sports betting world as we head into the 2025 NFL season. With strong opinions flying in every direction, from sharp bettors to casual fans, the team has become one of the most polarizing in this year’s betting landscape. Will they make a surprising leap under their new head coach, or are they destined to fall short in one of the toughest schedules in the league? Let’s dive into the key factors influencing the Chicago Bears' betting outlook this season.

A Polarizing Team with Divided Opinions

The Chicago Bears are surrounded by a unique level of disagreement among professional bettors this season. According to Lefty from The Betting Network, some of the sharpest minds in the industry are placing bets at opposite ends of the spectrum. Some believe Chicago could shock the league by winning the NFC, while others are betting heavily on the team missing the playoffs entirely. This unusual divide highlights the uncertainty surrounding the Bears, making them a fascinating team to analyze for sports bettors.

A Look Back at 2024: The Hype that Fizzled

The Bears entered the 2024 season with high expectations, bolstered by an infusion of talent and optimism. By Week 6, they had a promising 4-2 record and appeared to be on the rise. However, their season unraveled after the bye week, ending in a dismal 5-12 record.

One major factor in 2024 was luck. The Bears benefited from unusually high fumble recovery rates (74%, the highest in a decade) and one of the healthiest rosters in the league, with minimal injuries. However, regression is inevitable for both fumble recovery luck and injury luck, as history has shown these factors rarely repeat in consecutive seasons.

New Leadership: Can Ben Johnson Spark a Turnaround?

The Bears’ most notable offseason change is the hiring of Ben Johnson as head coach. Johnson, known for his brilliance as an offensive coordinator, has inspired hope for a brighter future. However, transitioning from coordinator to head coach is far from a guaranteed recipe for success, particularly in Year 1.

Johnson has been proactive in addressing Chicago’s weaknesses, particularly on the offensive line. The Bears acquired guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, along with center Drew Dalman, to strengthen their trenches. While these additions are smart moves, they may not be enough to elevate the team to playoff contention. As Lefty pointed out, "Adding three average offensive linemen isn’t enough to turn a five-win ball club into a playoff powerhouse."

Toughest Strength of Schedule in 2025

The Bears’ schedule is another major obstacle in their quest for improvement. In 2024, Chicago faced the second-toughest schedule in the league, and unfortunately, 2025 looks no easier. Based on strength-of-schedule ratings, the Bears are again facing the second-hardest slate of opponents, including nine games against teams ranked in the top 10 in Super Bowl odds.

The road games are especially brutal, featuring matchups against Detroit, Minnesota, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Baltimore, San Francisco, and Cincinnati. These teams are all ranked above league average, with the exception of Las Vegas. While the Bears have historically benefited from cold-weather home games at Soldier Field, this year’s schedule has largely denied them that advantage.

Key Players to Watch: Caleb Williams and the Offensive Line

The team’s success hinges largely on quarterback Caleb Williams, who is entering his second year. While immensely talented, Williams struggled with decision-making and pocket awareness as a rookie, contributing to Chicago’s league-high 68 sacks allowed. He’ll need to show significant growth in his ability to handle pressure if the Bears are to exceed expectations. As Lefty aptly noted, "I’m just not convinced Caleb Williams will be a top 15 quarterback - at least not yet, anyway."

The revamped offensive line will play a crucial role in protecting Williams and improving the team’s offensive output. However, even with the new additions, it’s unclear whether the unit will gel quickly enough to make a substantial impact this season.

Vegas Odds and Betting Advice

The Bears’ over/under win total is set at 8.5 wins, with the under slightly favored at -130 odds. Lefty projects the Bears to finish closer to 7.5 wins, citing the team’s brutal schedule, unproven young quarterback, and lingering defensive issues as key reasons for his skepticism.

One important statistic to consider: Over the past three seasons, the Bears have gone just 6-20 in games decided by seven points or less. This inability to close out tight games could prove to be a significant hurdle in achieving nine wins or more.

For bettors considering the under, the case is supported by:

A challenging schedule featuring nine top-10 Super Bowl contenders.
Likely regression in turnover and injury luck.
A historically poor track record in close games.

Key Takeaways for Chicago Bears Betting in 2025

Diverse Opinions: The Bears are one of the most debated teams among professional bettors, with sharp opinions ranging from playoff contenders to underachievers.
Strength of Schedule: Chicago faces the second-toughest schedule in the NFL, including a brutal slate of road games.
Caleb Williams’ Development: The young quarterback must overcome his struggles under pressure for Chicago to take a meaningful step forward.
Regression Ahead: After benefiting from fumble recovery and injury luck in 2024, the Bears are likely to see regression in these areas.
Projected Win Total: With an over/under set at 8.5 wins, Lefty’s projection of 7.5 wins leans heavily toward the under.

Final Thoughts: Is the Under the Safer Bet?

The 2025 Chicago Bears present an intriguing mix of potential and uncertainty. While there’s hope for future success under Ben Johnson’s leadership, this season is shaping up to be one of growing pains, particularly with a challenging schedule and key players still developing. Bettors eyeing the under on the Bears’ win total have a solid foundation of evidence, from statistical regression to unfavorable scheduling.

As always, sports betting comes with inherent risks, but understanding the nuances of a team like the Bears can help you make more informed decisions. Whether you’re a sharp bettor or a casual fan, 2025 is sure to be a pivotal year for the Chicago Bears and their betting landscape.

Source: "2025 NFL Team Preview | Chicago Bears | O/U 8.5 Wins?" - Live Dog Lefty, YouTube, Jul 29, 2025 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROKuPOp5osg