2025 Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview & Predictions

Greg Kajewski
3 days ago
5 min read

Updated: 2 days ago

The Las Vegas Raiders are entering the 2025 NFL season with a fresh start, a new head coach, and a sense of cautious optimism. After a dismal four-win campaign in 2024, the organization made significant changes, including overhauling its leadership and roster. For sports bettors, the Raiders present an intriguing case study of potential, risk, and opportunity. This guide will break down the key factors shaping the Raiders’ season, from their personnel shifts to statistical trends, to help bettors make more informed decisions.

A New Direction: Leadership Changes and Key Additions

The Raiders wasted no time addressing their struggles from last season, starting with the dismissal of General Manager Tom Telesco and head coach Antonio Pierce. In their place, John Spych takes over as GM, while veteran coach Pete Carroll, at 73 years old, brings his vast experience and culture-building pedigree to Las Vegas. Carroll’s appointment is particularly intriguing for bettors, as his teams historically outperform win total expectations, boasting a 10-4 record in such situations since 2010.

The biggest on-field change is the arrival of quarterback Geno Smith, who reunites with Carroll after several successful seasons in Seattle. While Smith might not be considered elite outdoors, his indoor performance tells a different story. Over 15 career indoor starts, Smith has delivered top-five-level quarterback metrics, with his teams exceeding expectations in 14 of those games by an average margin of nine points. For a team that was plagued by instability at quarterback last year, Smith’s consistency indoors could be a game-changer.

Other notable additions include running back Ashton Jeanty, a player who is expected to elevate the Raiders’ run game, and veteran Raheem Mostert. On defense, the Raiders revamped their unit by adding versatile players like Jeremy Chinn, a hybrid safety-linebacker who can contribute in multiple schemes. The front four remains the strength of their defense, anchored by Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins. If defensive coordinator Patrick Graham can keep his top pass rushers healthy, the team’s defense could rank among the league’s best in quarterback pressure.

2024 Struggles: A Season of Misfortune

Last season, the Raiders’ poor performance wasn’t solely due to talent deficiencies - it was also shaped by some of the unluckiest metrics in recent memory. The team had the lowest fumble recovery rate (20%) of any NFL team in the past decade, recovering just six of 33 fumbles. This level of randomness often skews results, and for the Raiders, it contributed to a staggering -16 turnover differential.

Injuries also took a significant toll, with adjusted games lost (AGL) ranking as the second worst in the league. Nearly every position group, particularly on defense, was affected by injuries. Such factors, while unpredictable, highlight the potential for regression to the mean in 2025, especially if the team stays healthier and benefits from better turnover luck.

Strength of Schedule and Rest Disadvantage

The Raiders’ schedule features a mix of opportunities and challenges. On one hand, their strength of schedule is slightly easier than the league average, with opponents collectively rated half a point below an average team. Additionally, they face the fourth easiest slate of opposing offenses, theoretically giving their defense more favorable matchups.

However, the Raiders are at a significant disadvantage in terms of rest days. They have the league's worst net rest differential at -19 days, with three games against opponents coming off bye weeks. While rest disparity can add strain over the course of a season, its impact is often more situational than definitive. Similar disadvantages didn’t prevent the Denver Broncos from making the playoffs last season, serving as a reminder that rest metrics, while important, don’t always dictate outcomes.

Betting Opportunities: Win Totals, Playoff Odds, and Upside

Oddsmakers have set the Raiders’ 2025 win total at 6.5, with the over slightly favored. Bettors should weigh Pete Carroll’s history of exceeding expectations and the team’s potential bounce-back from last year’s misfortunes. Teams with low win totals (between 5.5 and 7.5) have historically offered strong returns for over bets, and Carroll's track record further bolsters this case.

Moreover, the Raiders’ playoff odds (+320 or higher) may seem like a longshot, but history suggests otherwise. Every season for the past 25 years, at least one team with odds in this range has defied expectations and made the playoffs. Last year alone, five teams with win totals of eight or fewer reached the postseason. For bettors looking to capitalize on high-upside wagers, the Raiders could present value.

Key Considerations for Bettors

Geno Smith’s Indoor Advantage: Smith’s performance indoors aligns with top-tier quarterbacks. With the Raiders playing home games in a dome, bettors should factor in his efficiency in such conditions.
Turnover Regression: The Raiders are likely to improve their turnover metrics after suffering from historically bad luck in fumble recoveries and timing of turnovers last season.
Pete Carroll’s Track Record: Carroll-led teams consistently outperform market expectations, particularly in overachieving win totals and making playoff pushes.
Strength in the Trenches: A healthy defensive front, led by Maxx Crosby, could emerge as the backbone of the Raiders’ success.
Rest Disadvantage: While the Raiders have the league’s worst net rest differential, this factor is not always correlated with poor performance. Situational matchups and bye-week timing will play a larger role.

Key Takeaways

New Leadership, New Hope: Pete Carroll and Geno Smith bring stability and upside to a team that struggled with leadership and quarterback play last year.
Indoor Efficiency: Geno Smith thrives in dome environments, making the Raiders’ home-field dynamics more favorable for offensive production.
Turnover and Injury Variance: Improved luck in turnovers and injuries could lead to a better overall performance compared to 2024.
Win Total Value: With a win total set at 6.5, the over offers an intriguing bet for those confident in Pete Carroll’s ability to exceed expectations.
Playoff Longshot Appeal: Historical trends suggest that teams with similar odds to the Raiders often surprise and make the playoffs.

Conclusion

The 2025 Las Vegas Raiders may not be a Super Bowl contender, but they possess significant upside for bettors willing to take calculated risks. From Pete Carroll's veteran leadership to Geno Smith’s indoor prowess, the pieces are in place for a better-than-expected season. Factor in the potential for regression in turnovers and injuries, and this is a team that could surprise in a tough AFC West. While caution is warranted, especially given their rest disadvantage and unproven roster depth, the Raiders make a compelling case for over bettors and those seeking value in playoff odds.

For bettors, the key is to monitor how the team performs in early matchups, particularly at home, and adjust strategies accordingly. The 2025 Raiders may not dominate the league, but they’re certainly a team worth paying attention to in the betting space.

Source: "2025 NFL Team Preview | Las Vegas Raiders | Predictions & Future Bets" - Live Dog Lefty, YouTube, Aug 9, 2025 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rS3t7ZyBERY