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2025 U.S. Open Preview, Odds, Predictions: Top picks, Bets, and More!

  • Writer: Greg Kajewski
    Greg Kajewski
  • 2 days ago
  • 14 min read

The U.S. Open is back at Oakmont Country Club, one of the toughest golf courses in the world. Here’s what you need to know:

  • Key Players: Scottie Scheffler leads the odds at +280, followed by defending champion Bryson DeChambeau (+700) and Rory McIlroy (+1100). Other strong contenders include Jon Rahm (+1200) and Xander Schauffele (+2200).
  • Course Challenges: Oakmont’s narrow fairways, deep rough, and lightning-fast greens will test every golfer. Key holes like the par-3 8th and the Church Pews bunker on the 3rd are especially punishing.
  • Weather Impact: Rain early in the week will soften the greens, but conditions are expected to firm up by the weekend. Thunderstorms could disrupt play on Saturday and Sunday, adding unpredictability.
  • Betting Tips: BettorEdge’s no-vig marketplace is ideal for finding better odds and live betting opportunities. Favorites like Scheffler offer safety, while dark horses like Harris English (150/1) provide high upside.

Quick Comparison: Top Odds

Player

Odds

Implied Probability

Scottie Scheffler

+280

26.3%

Bryson DeChambeau

+700

12.5%

Rory McIlroy

+1100

8.3%

Jon Rahm

+1200

7.7%

Xander Schauffele

+2200

4.3%

Pro Tip: Use BettorEdge to track odds, connect with top bettors, and cash out early if your picks perform well. Stay updated on weather changes for live betting opportunities.


Oakmont Country Club Course Breakdown


Course Features and Player Challenges

Oakmont Country Club stretches across 7,372 yards with a par of 70 and boasts an impressive 168 bunkers strategically placed to test every aspect of a golfer's game. Recent renovations by Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner expanded these bunkers by about one-third, making them even more imposing.

The fairways, averaging just 28 yards in width, demand pinpoint accuracy off the tee. Miss the mark, and you'll find yourself battling through five-inch thick rough that can swallow golf balls and derail an otherwise solid round.

But the greens are where Oakmont truly separates the contenders from the rest. Running nearly 15 on the Stimpmeter, these lightning-fast surfaces are riddled with severe undulations. Even routine putts can become nerve-wracking tests of precision. As Jordan Spieth aptly described:

"You can't let your mind slip on these greens for one moment, or else you're going to be left with possibly a 10- to 15-footer on the next putt, if not worse".

Tiger Woods echoed this sentiment, calling Oakmont's greens the toughest he’s ever faced:

"They are by far the most difficult greens I've ever played...I thought Winged Foot was pretty tough. Augusta is pretty tough. But both courses have flat spots. Here, I'm trying to figure out where a flat shelf is".

Several holes stand out as defining moments on this course. The par-3 8th, at a daunting 289 yards, holds the distinction of being the longest par-3 in major championship golf. Then there's the 3rd hole, home to the infamous "Church Pews" bunker - a hazard that has ruined many rounds. Finally, the 17th hole, a 312-yard par-4, tempts players with a risk-reward opportunity. Its small, heavily bunkered green often punishes overly aggressive approaches.

Oakmont's history further underscores its difficulty. In the 2016 U.S. Open, only four players managed to finish under par, with Dustin Johnson claiming victory at 4-under. The 2007 championship was even more grueling, as Angel Cabrera won at 5-over par, with his final-day 69 standing as the only sub-70 round.

While the course itself is a brutal test, the weather will add another layer of unpredictability.


Weather and Course Conditions

Mother Nature always plays a role at Oakmont, and this year is no exception. Leading up to June 9, about 2 inches of rain softened the greens, which are typically rock-hard. By Monday, the greens were running at 13.5 on the Stimpmeter - slightly below the USGA's target of 14.5 for championship play.

Despite the softer start, USGA officials are confident the course will return to its usual form. Darin Bevard, the USGA’s senior director of championship agronomy, assured:

"By the time the lights go on Thursday, Oakmont is going to be Oakmont".

The weather forecast adds another layer of complexity. Thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon, posing flooding risks, but conditions are set to clear up from Tuesday through Friday. This break in the weather will allow the grounds crew to firm up the greens and bring them to championship speeds.

The weekend, however, looks more volatile. Saturday carries a 60% chance of thunderstorms, while Sunday has a 50% chance of showers. These conditions could favor players who finish their rounds before delays disrupt play.

Even slight changes in weather can have a massive impact on scoring at Oakmont. Softer conditions early in the week will likely reward aggressive play, while firmer greens over the weekend will demand a more conservative approach. BettorEdge users can take advantage of these shifts, as evolving conditions create opportunities in live betting markets. For instance, weather delays or interruptions can make outright winner bets riskier but open up value in real-time odds. Staying on top of the forecast could be the key to finding an edge during tournament week.


Player Analysis and Betting Odds


Tournament Favorites

At Oakmont, even the best golfers face a tough test, with the course's demanding conditions exposing any weaknesses. Scottie Scheffler leads the betting odds at +280, making him the most favored U.S. Open contender since Tiger Woods entered at +175 in 2009. Scheffler's recent victories and consistent dominance have solidified his position at the top. Reflecting on the challenges of the course, Scheffler commented:

"This golf course, like Oakmont, I think this is a place where if there's a weakness in your game, this golf course is going expose it pretty quick."

Bryson DeChambeau has climbed to the second spot on the odds board at +700, overtaking Rory McIlroy in recent weeks. As the defending U.S. Open champion, DeChambeau enters the tournament with momentum, having placed in the top six in five of the last six majors.

Rory McIlroy, at +1100, rounds out the top three. While his season includes three wins and five top-10 finishes in 10 PGA Tour events, his recent performances hint at a post-Masters slump, raising questions about his current form.

Jon Rahm, listed at +1200, remains a strong contender. The 2021 U.S. Open champion has consistently performed well in majors, securing top-15 finishes in his last three appearances.

These top players - Scheffler, DeChambeau, McIlroy, Rahm, and Xander Schauffele (+2200) - dominate the betting market, collectively accounting for nearly 60% of the win probability. While these favorites draw heavy attention, there’s plenty of value to be found outside the top tier.


Value Picks and Dark Horse Candidates

For those looking beyond the favorites, several players stand out as intriguing options:

  • Justin Thomas (+4000): With a well-rounded game and extensive major experience, Thomas offers excellent upside.
  • Patrick Cantlay (+4500): Known for his precision and steady iron play, Cantlay's skill set aligns well with Oakmont's challenges.
  • Shane Lowry (+4000): Lowry brings the grit and mental toughness needed to handle the grind of a U.S. Open, especially on a course as demanding as Oakmont.
  • Corey Conners (+7000): A ball-striking specialist, Conners has averaged 1.21 strokes better per round than the field in majors over the past five years, making him a strong sleeper pick.
  • Ben Griffin (+7000): Griffin’s recent form and solid approach game make him an attractive longshot option.

History suggests that experience matters. Nine of the last 10 U.S. Open winners had previously finished in the top 25 at this event, and eight had secured a top-five finish in a major. However, these trends also highlight opportunities for less-heralded players to make an impact.


Current Betting Odds Comparison

Here’s a breakdown of the current odds for key players:

Player

Odds

Implied Probability

Scottie Scheffler

+280

26.3%

Bryson DeChambeau

+700

12.5%

Rory McIlroy

+1100

8.3%

Jon Rahm

+1200

7.7%

Xander Schauffele

+2200

4.3%

Collin Morikawa

+2500

3.8%

Ludvig Åberg

+3000

3.2%

Joaquin Niemann

+3300

2.9%

Justin Thomas

+4000

2.4%

Patrick Cantlay

+4500

2.2%

Shane Lowry

+4000

2.4%

Brooks Koepka

+5000

1.9%

While Scheffler’s short odds reflect his dominance, they leave limited room for profit. Players in the +4000 to +7000 range, such as Thomas, Cantlay, and Conners, offer a better balance of risk and reward.

Brooks Koepka (+5000) and Jordan Spieth (+5500) also present intriguing value. Koepka’s proven ability to perform in majors and Spieth’s clutch putting skills make them well-suited for Oakmont’s challenges. Meanwhile, longer shots like Hideki Matsuyama (+6500) and Justin Rose (+10000) could surprise, as their games match the precision and patience required for success here.


2025 US Open Golf Picks, Research, Sleepers, Course Preview, Stat Rankings


BettorEdge Betting Strategies for the U.S. Open

The U.S. Open at Oakmont offers a unique landscape for bettors, especially when using BettorEdge's peer-to-peer platform. With its flexibility and user-friendly features, you can go beyond the limitations of traditional sportsbooks to make smarter, more strategic bets. Here's how to make the most of BettorEdge during the tournament.


How to Use the No-Vig Marketplace

BettorEdge's no-vig marketplace is a game-changer. It allows you to buy bets at better prices or sell your bets to other users, all while setting your own odds. This flexibility becomes especially useful during high-profile events like the U.S. Open.

For instance, if you're eyeing Justin Thomas at +4000 or Patrick Cantlay at +4500, you might find even better odds from other users on BettorEdge. Alternatively, you can post your own bet at the odds you want. Think Scottie Scheffler's +280 odds are too low? Post a bet at +320 and wait for someone to match it.

The platform also lets you cash out early. If Patrick Cantlay starts strong and his odds tighten, you can sell your +4500 bet for a profit before the tournament ends. This kind of flexibility isn't available with traditional sportsbooks.

Another major advantage is BettorEdge’s low commission fees - less than 1%, compared to the 10% vig baked into most sportsbook odds. Over time, this difference can significantly boost your profitability. In fact, BettorEdge users are 20 times more likely to see long-term profits compared to those relying on traditional sportsbooks.

This pricing control, combined with community-driven insights, helps you make sharper, more informed betting decisions.


Using Community Data and Social Features

BettorEdge transforms betting into a collaborative experience, thanks to its social features and community-driven insights. These tools are especially useful for making informed decisions during the U.S. Open.

Feature

Function

Benefit

Social Feed

Shows bets in real time

Spot trending bets and market shifts

Follow System

Connects you with top bettors

Learn from proven strategies

Tip Sharing

Rewards users for predictions

Encourages quality insights

Performance Tracking

Displays ROI and win rates

Identifies reliable bettors

The social feed keeps you updated on trending bets and market movements, helping you act quickly on valuable opportunities. By following successful bettors, you can gain insights into their strategies, especially those with strong track records in golf betting. Look for users who consistently profit during PGA Tour events - they’ll likely have valuable takes on player form, course conditions, and value bets.

Leaderboards showcasing ROI, win percentages, and streaks over the past 7 and 30 days can help you identify hot bettors heading into the tournament. Aligning your bets with these users during their streaks can open up new opportunities.

Performance tracking provides detailed stats for each bettor, breaking down their success rates across different sports and bet types. If you’re focused on golf, prioritize users who specialize in PGA Tour events rather than those who only bet on majors occasionally.


Head-to-Head Betting and Competitions

BettorEdge also offers competitive formats that add an extra layer of excitement to your U.S. Open betting experience. These head-to-head challenges and group competitions not only boost your chances of winning but also make betting more engaging.

Player matchups are a great option for the U.S. Open. Instead of betting on an outright winner, you can challenge a friend or another user to pick between two golfers. For example, backing Bryson DeChambeau over Rory McIlroy allows you to capitalize on your analysis without needing to predict the tournament champion.

Group competitions are perfect for office pools or friend groups. You can create or join contests with multiple participants, and BettorEdge handles all the logistics - from tracking results to managing payouts - without taking hefty fees. Reach out to us at Support@bettoredge.com if you’re interested in golf competitions or join the Ace Spirits group competition below.

The platform also ensures seamless settlement, automatically resolving bets based on official results. Your win-loss record is tracked over time, helping you build a reputation within the community. This could even attract followers who want to learn from your strategies.

Plus, with free entry, you can participate without risking your bankroll on entry fees. This is a great way to test strategies, build connections with other bettors, and gain experience without financial pressure.

These competitions also offer valuable learning opportunities. Observing how successful bettors approach tournament-long contests can refine your strategies for future PGA Tour events and majors.


Profit Tips for BettorEdge Users

Making money betting on golf, especially during the U.S. Open, takes more than just picking winners. BettorEdge offers tools that traditional sportsbooks simply don’t, but knowing how to use them effectively is the key to boosting your profits. Let’s dive into how you can make the most out of BettorEdge during the U.S. Open and beyond.


Track Your Betting Performance

BettorEdge’s analytics dashboard is your secret weapon for understanding your betting habits. Everything is tracked automatically, breaking down your performance by sport, league, and bet type. This gives you a clear picture of what’s working and what’s not.

For golf betting, the analytics can show how you perform on outright winners versus player matchups or even how your picks fare across different courses. These details help uncover patterns you might overlook otherwise.

Here’s a quick look at what the platform tracks:

Metric

What It Shows

Net Profit/Loss

How much you’ve earned or lost overall

Return on Investment (ROI)

Your percentage return based on total wagers

Average Win Amount

What you typically earn from a winning bet

Largest Win

The biggest payout you’ve scored on a single bet

Current Portfolio Value

The total value of all your active bets

By reviewing ROI trends and league-specific stats, you can identify your strengths. For instance, if you’re consistently more successful with mid-range odds (like a Tommy Fleetwood at +4000) than with heavy favorites, you can focus on those types of bets for the U.S. Open.

Armed with these insights, you’re ready to take the next step: connecting with other top bettors.


Build Your Betting Network

BettorEdge isn’t just about analytics - it’s also a community. The leaderboards highlight top-performing bettors based on ROI, win percentage, and streaks over the past week or month. Following these experts gives you access to their strategies and picks.

Each bettor’s profile provides detailed stats, so you can see who’s excelling in golf-specific bets. Prioritize users with strong results in golf rather than those spreading their bets across multiple sports.

Here’s where it gets interesting: BettorEdge’s tip sharing feature allows successful bettors to earn extra income by helping others win. If someone’s golf picks consistently deliver, you can tip them a percentage of your winnings, creating an incentive for high-quality analysis.

The social feed keeps you in the loop on trending bets and market activity. If several top bettors are backing the same player, it might highlight an opportunity you hadn’t considered. On the flip side, if sharp bettors are steering clear of a popular pick, it’s worth digging into why.

Engaging with the BettorEdge community doesn’t just make betting more interactive - it helps you learn from others and refine your own strategies over time.


Why BettorEdge Beats Traditional Sportsbooks

BettorEdge offers tools and advantages that traditional sportsbooks simply can’t match. One of the biggest differences? The absence of a built-in vig. Traditional sportsbooks typically include a 10% vig on bets, meaning you need to win at least 52.4% of the time just to break even. BettorEdge’s no-vig marketplace lowers that break-even rate to 50%, giving you a mathematical edge right out of the gate.

Here’s how it stacks up:

Aspect

With Vig

Without Vig

Break-even Win Rate

52.4%

50.0%

True Probability

Inflated

Accurate

Average Returns

Lower

5-10% Higher

Profit Likelihood

~2%

~40%

That 40% profit likelihood is a game-changer. While only about 2% of traditional sportsbook users turn a long-term profit, BettorEdge users are far more likely to see positive results. This isn’t just about better odds - it’s about the platform’s structure giving you a fairer chance.

Another standout feature? You can set your own odds. Think Bryson DeChambeau’s +700 odds are too short? Post a bet at +800 and wait for someone to match it.

Plus, the ability to sell bets back adds flexibility you won’t find elsewhere. For example, if Patrick Cantlay gets off to a strong start at the U.S. Open and his odds tighten, you can sell your +4500 bet for an immediate profit without waiting for the tournament to end.

BettorEdge’s peer-to-peer model eliminates the house advantage, leveling the playing field. And when it comes to golf betting - where longshots and value plays are common - the savings on vig and pricing flexibility can make a huge impact on your bottom line.


Final Thoughts: Your U.S. Open Betting Plan

The 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont offers a prime chance to make the most of BettorEdge's features and tools. With the tournament kicking off on June 12, now’s the time to fine-tune your approach and set yourself up for success.

Start by implementing a tracking system for every bet you place. This helps you identify patterns, pinpoint your strengths, and avoid impulsive decisions. BettorEdge's analytics dashboard is a great resource for monitoring how different types of bets - like outright winners, player matchups, or prop bets - are performing. Use this data to adjust your strategy as the tournament progresses.

When it comes to bankroll management, balance is key. Consider allocating larger portions of your budget to safer bets on favorites like Scottie Scheffler (+280) or Bryson DeChambeau (+700). At the same time, reserve smaller amounts for higher-payout opportunities, such as Tommy Fleetwood (+4000) or Shane Lowry (+4000). This approach minimizes risk while keeping the door open for bigger wins. Don’t forget to keep an eye on community trends to complement your strategy.

Tap into BettorEdge's community insights throughout the tournament. The platform’s social feed can reveal trending bets and highlight top performers on the golf leaderboards. If you notice experienced bettors rallying behind a mid-tier player, it might uncover a valuable opportunity you hadn’t considered.

The no-vig marketplace is another powerful tool. With no built-in fees, you gain a mathematical edge that can compound over the tournament's four days. If you spot odds that don’t align with your expectations, you can set your own and wait for a match. For example, if you believe a player’s odds undervalue their potential, you can post your adjusted odds and see if others bite.

Don’t overlook the sell-back feature as the tournament unfolds. Let’s say your longshot pick - someone like Ludvig Åberg at +3000 odds - starts climbing the leaderboard. You could sell your bet back to the community for an immediate profit, rather than waiting for the final round. This flexibility allows you to lock in gains and manage risk effectively.

As the tournament progresses, refine your strategy based on real-time data. Experiment with smaller bets to test new ideas before scaling up.

With BettorEdge's suite of tools - ranging from detailed analytics to community insights and customizable odds - you’re well-equipped to navigate the 2025 U.S. Open and maximize your potential returns.


FAQs


How do weather conditions at Oakmont Country Club impact player performance during the U.S. Open?

Weather at Oakmont Country Club plays a huge role in shaping player performance during the U.S. Open. This course is infamous for its lightning-fast greens and tough layout, but throw in some unpredictable weather, and things get even trickier.

Take rain, for example. It can soften the greens, making it easier for approach shots to stick. However, there's a trade-off - it also stretches the course, giving an advantage to players with powerful drives. On the flip side, dry and windy conditions crank up the difficulty. The greens become even quicker and harder to read, demanding incredible precision and unshakable patience from competitors.

Success at Oakmont often hinges on how well players adjust to these shifting conditions. For players - and even bettors - keeping tabs on the weather forecast during the tournament can make all the difference.


What are some effective betting strategies for the 2025 U.S. Open on BettorEdge?

To boost your chances during the 2025 U.S. Open on BettorEdge, start with in-depth research. Dive into player stats, analyze course conditions, and pay attention to weather forecasts - these factors can heavily influence the tournament's outcomes. The more you understand the event's nuances, the better prepared you'll be.

It’s also smart to mix up your bets to manage risk. Try options like head-to-head matchups, predicting top-10 finishes, or even picking outright winners. This strategy spreads your risk while keeping the door open for strong returns, even if one bet doesn’t pan out.

Lastly, make it a habit to track your betting history. By recording your wagers and their results, you can spot trends, learn from past mistakes, and fine-tune your approach for future tournaments. A little reflection can go a long way toward improving your strategy.


Who are some underrated players to watch as potential dark horses for the 2025 U.S. Open?

Lesser-Known Players to Watch at the 2025 U.S. Open

While the spotlight often shines on the favorites, a few under-the-radar players could turn heads at Oakmont in 2025:

  • Ben Griffin (+5,500): Griffin has been delivering strong results lately, with a series of top finishes that show he thrives under pressure. He’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.
  • Ryan Fox (+11,000): After clinching a playoff win at the Canadian Open, Fox has proven he can hold his own on major stages. His consistent play makes him an intriguing dark horse.
  • Harris English (+10,000): English has quietly built a solid record at the U.S. Open, with three top-10 finishes since 2020. His ability to navigate tough courses makes him a sleeper pick worth noting.

These players may not be the first names that come to mind, but their recent form and experience suggest they could make a splash in this prestigious tournament.


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