Atlanta Falcons Betting 2025: Win Totals & Playoff Odds

Greg Kajewski
Sep 4
5 min read

Updated: Sep 20

The Atlanta Falcons head into the 2025 NFL season as one of the league's most intriguing teams. With a fresh face at quarterback, changes on defense, and a favorable schedule, there's plenty to unpack for sports bettors weighing their options. Whether you're eyeing win totals, playoff odds, or divisional futures, understanding the Falcons' dynamic situation is key to making informed bets. In this comprehensive betting breakdown, we’ll analyze their strengths and weaknesses to uncover the opportunities and potential pitfalls for bettors this season.

Outlook and Source from Lefty of The Betting Network

A New Era at Quarterback: Michael Penix Jr.’s Ascension

Last season's quarterback carousel in Atlanta was a tale of two halves. Starting strong at 6-3, the Falcons' fortunes took a sharp downturn as Kirk Cousins struggled, culminating in a slump where he went one touchdown to nine interceptions over his last five starts. His eventual benching paved the way for Michael Penix Jr., who stepped in as the starter for the final three games of 2024. While Penix’s sample size was small, he showed enough promise to lock in the starting role for 2025.

The Falcons aren’t asking Penix to be a superstar. With a schedule as forgiving as theirs (more on that below), he could thrive as a steady game manager. His chemistry with wide receiver Drake London, who averaged an astounding 117 yards per game over Penix’s three starts, could be one of the defining features of Atlanta’s offense this season. For bettors, London’s production could open the door to profitable prop bets, especially against weaker secondaries.

A Schedule Built for Success

The Falcons’ 2025 opponents offer a favorable landscape for achieving double-digit wins. Ranked as the fourth-easiest schedule in the league, Atlanta plays six teams projected to finish in the bottom eight. Additionally, their seven-game stretch from Week 8 through Week 14 (Dolphins, Patriots, Colts, Panthers, Saints, Jets, Seahawks) stands out as the easiest midseason schedule of any team.

Equally important is their environment. Indoor teams often struggle in harsh weather conditions late in the season, but Atlanta catches a break here. Of their 17 games, 12 will be played in domes - a huge advantage for a team that relies on fast-paced, offensive football. The only potential cold-weather matchup is Week 13 against the Jets, mitigating the risk of weather-related disruptions.

These scheduling details are significant for win total bets, as they make hitting the over (likely set around 9.5 or 10 games) a plausible target. The Falcons have also historically hovered around eight wins, even during down years, further bolstering confidence in an over bet.

Offensive Continuity Amid Key Changes

Atlanta’s offense retains most of its core, returning 10 of 11 starters. However, the one departure - center Ryan Dolman - could be consequential. Dolman was a top-five center per Pro Football Focus, and his replacement, Ryan Nel, graded poorly during his 500 snaps last year. While this downgrade could impact the offensive line’s cohesion, the Falcons are otherwise well-positioned.

Skill position depth, however, remains a concern. Beyond star running back Bijan Robinson and wideout Drake London, there’s little proven talent. Tight end Kyle Pitts, once heralded as a cornerstone player, has yet to deliver consistently. Whether Pitts can finally break out remains an open question, though Penix’s development could aid his production.

For bettors, these factors suggest caution when betting on offensive consistency, especially when considering large spreads or parlays tied to high-scoring games. However, focusing on individual player props like London’s receiving yards could be a safer bet, given his favorable matchups.

Defensive Overhaul: Boom or Bust?

Atlanta’s 2024 defensive struggles were stark, ranking near the bottom in pressure rate and sacks. To address this, the Falcons invested heavily in their pass rush during the offseason, drafting SEC standouts Jalon Walker (Georgia) and James Pierce (Tennessee) in the first round. These additions, alongside veteran coordinator Jeff Ulbrich’s more aggressive scheme, aim to transform the defense into a unit capable of generating consistent pressure.

That said, the defense still faces challenges, particularly in situational play. Last year, Atlanta ranked near the top in early-down defensive efficiency but cratered on third and fourth downs. Opponents converted far too many high-leverage plays, a trend that must reverse for the Falcons to reach their potential.

For bettors, defensive volatility could make Atlanta a high-risk, high-reward team in close games. Their 11 matchups with spreads of three points or fewer highlight the importance of turnovers and late-game execution. Consider targeting live bets during games where Atlanta’s defense starts hot or when they face turnover-prone offenses.

Special Teams: The Hidden X-Factor

Special teams play was a quiet Achilles’ heel for the Falcons in 2024. Opposing kickers combined to hit 31 of 32 field goals, including an incredible 11-for-11 from 50 yards or more. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s own kicking unit finished with the second-worst field goal percentage in the league (70%). These discrepancies cost the Falcons critical points in one-score games.

While special teams performance is notoriously unpredictable year-to-year, it’s worth monitoring for bettors placing spreads or moneyline bets in close matchups. Should Atlanta’s kicking woes persist, it could tilt tight games against them.

Betting Outlook: Over Wins, Playoff Contenders, and Divisional Value

The Falcons’ path to success in 2025 is clear: capitalize on a favorable schedule, minimize turnovers, and improve situational play. Despite their flaws, this team has more upside than downside, particularly in the context of the NFC South. Their division rivals - the Panthers, Saints, and Buccaneers - are all dealing with their own uncertainties, giving Atlanta a legitimate shot at the crown.

Key Betting Markets to Watch:

Win Totals: With a favorable schedule and a history of reaching eight wins in down years, betting the over on their projected total is appealing.
Playoff Odds: Considering the relative weakness of their division, Atlanta is a strong contender to reach the postseason for the first time since their infamous Super Bowl collapse.
Player Props: Drake London’s role as Penix’s go-to target makes him a prime candidate for overs in receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns.
Game Totals: Their combination of offensive potential and defensive uncertainty could lead to high-scoring games, particularly against weaker opponents.

Key Takeaways

Michael Penix Jr. steps in as the Falcons’ starting quarterback, bringing promise but manageable expectations as a game manager.
Drake London is poised for a breakout season, especially against a favorable slate of opponents.
Atlanta’s schedule, ranked fourth-easiest, offers a clear path to 10+ wins, with limited exposure to harsh weather games.
Defensive reinforcements on the pass rush could improve performance, but situational play remains a question mark.
Special teams inconsistencies from last year could impact close games, highlighting the importance of monitoring kicking performance.
Betting opportunities include win totals (over), playoff futures, divisional odds, and targeted props for London and other key players.

The Atlanta Falcons are a team with untapped potential heading into the 2025 NFL season. With a forgiving schedule, a promising young quarterback, and room for improvement on both sides of the ball, the pieces are in place for a playoff run. For savvy bettors, understanding these dynamics is the key to capitalizing on the Falcons’ odds throughout the season.

Source: "2025 NFL Team Preview | Atlanta Falcons" - Live Dog Lefty, YouTube, Jul 28, 2025 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_iuIVWfL3E

Use: Embedded for reference. Brief quotes used for commentary/review.