Kansas City Chiefs Betting: 2025 Season Insights

Greg Kajewski
3 days ago
5 min read

Updated: 1 day ago

The Kansas City Chiefs are once again in the spotlight for the 2025 NFL season. After making their third consecutive Super Bowl appearance earlier this year, the Chiefs remain a dominant force in the league. However, their performance last season revealed some intriguing data points that bettors must consider. Whether you're a seasoned "Sharp" or a casual bettor, understanding the nuances of this team can help you make more informed wagers this season.

We’ll delve into key trends, statistical analysis, and potential betting angles for the Chiefs in 2025. From Patrick Mahomes' continued brilliance to questions surrounding the offensive line, here’s everything you need to know before placing your bets.

A Look Back: Chiefs' 2024 Season Performance

The Chiefs finished the 2024 season with an impressive 15 wins, but their journey to the Super Bowl was far from straightforward. While they reached the league's pinnacle, they only covered the spread in seven games. Here are some key observations:

Close Game Dominance: The Chiefs excelled in clutch moments, winning four games on the final play. This aligns with their historic success in close games with a stellar 47-20 record in one-score matchups during the Mahomes era. However, last season was an outlier, even for them.
Overachieving Metrics: Using a metric called , the Chiefs were found to have won four games over their expected total. This ranked as the fifth-most overachieving season since 2000. Essentially, they outperformed their statistical baselines in critical situations.
Offensive Struggles: Surprisingly, Kansas City’s offense ranked just 15th in points scored for the season - a drop-off compared to previous years. Their +59 point differential was the worst in Mahomes’ tenure.

For bettors, these metrics reveal a fascinating duality: while the Chiefs are an elite team, their consistent success in close games may not always be sustainable.

Key Betting Considerations for 2025

1. Strength of Schedule

The Chiefs face a tougher-than-average schedule this season. According to projections, their opponents are rated half a point stronger than the league average. Additionally, they are scheduled for at least eight prime-time or standalone games. While this boosts their exposure, it also disrupts their weekly routine - something that can hinder performance.

Historically, teams with six or more standalone games have struggled to meet their win totals, failing by an average of half a win. Bettors should be cautious when evaluating the Chiefs' win total, as their challenging schedule could lead to unexpected losses.

2. Roster Changes and Depth

Kansas City’s offseason saw minimal roster shakeups. They added left tackle Jaylen Moore and cornerback Christian Fulton, both of whom are expected to start. While Moore has shown promise, filling the shoes of Joe Thuney - an "Iron Man" on the offensive line - will be a significant challenge. Similarly, the team lacks depth on both the offensive line and defense, making them vulnerable to injuries.

On a positive note, the Chiefs’ wide receiver group is stronger than in recent seasons. With Hollywood Brown, Rashi Rice returning from injury, and rookie Xavier Worthy, Mahomes has a diverse set of weapons. This could help offset any regression on the offensive line.

3. Betting on Team Futures

The Chiefs have consistently exceeded expectations under Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid. Since Reid arrived in Kansas City, the team is 10-2 to the over on their season win totals. However, their overachievement last season raises questions about regression. Bettors seeking value in futures markets may want to explore alternative options or wait for mid-season adjustments.

For Super Bowl futures, the Chiefs are undoubtedly contenders, but the current pricing may not offer sufficient value. As the bettor in the video suggests, "Sometimes the obvious option is the best option", but big plus-money odds can provide better opportunities over a six-month span.

Player-Specific Betting Angles

Patrick Mahomes – MVP Candidate

Mahomes remains the centerpiece of this team, and another MVP-caliber season is likely on the horizon. However, as the video highlights, the current MVP odds may not provide sufficient value. If you’re considering a wager on Mahomes, it might be worth waiting for more favorable mid-season pricing.

Travis Kelce – Bounce-Back Season?

Last season’s decline in Travis Kelce’s production has raised some eyebrows. Was it a one-year anomaly, or the beginning of a downward trend? This is a critical question for prop bettors focusing on Kelce’s yardage and touchdown totals. Early-season performance should offer clarity.

Defense – A Solid Foundation

The Chiefs’ defense, led by coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, was a stabilizing force last season. While depth remains a concern, the unit should continue to perform well, making Kansas City an intriguing option for bettors considering under wagers in high-total games.

Betting Tips and Strategies

Here are actionable strategies for betting on the Chiefs in the 2025 season:

Be Wary of Big Spreads: Kansas City’s reputation often leads to inflated point spreads. Last season, they covered in just 7 of 15 wins. Look for opportunities to bet against them as heavy favorites.
Target Close Games: Despite the Chiefs’ success in close games, regression is a real possibility. Betting on their opponents in one-score matchups could offer value, especially if the Chiefs are facing tough competition.
Monitor Injury Reports: With limited depth on the offensive line and defense, injuries could significantly impact their performance. Stay updated on roster news before placing wagers.
Prime-Time Unders: Given the disruptions caused by standalone games, betting the under in prime-time matchups may be a profitable angle.

Key Takeaways

The Chiefs overachieved last season, winning four games more than expected based on advanced metrics.
They face a tougher-than-average schedule in 2025, with numerous prime-time games that could disrupt their routine.
Depth concerns on the offensive line and defense make them vulnerable to injuries.
Patrick Mahomes and the improved wide receiver group remain the team’s strengths, though questions linger about Travis Kelce’s production.
Bettors should be cautious when backing the Chiefs as heavy favorites or in long-term futures markets.

Final Thoughts

The Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2025 season as perennial contenders, but their path to success may not be as smooth as in years past. While they remain a Super Bowl favorite, betting against inflated spreads or exploring value in their opponents could be lucrative strategies. Keep a close eye on their performance in close games and the impact of their challenging schedule.

For bettors, the Chiefs present both opportunities and risks. Armed with this data-driven analysis, you can approach your wagers with confidence and a deeper understanding of what makes this team tick.

Outlook and Source from Lefty of The Betting Network: "2025 NFL Team Preview | Kansas City Chiefs | SuperBowl?" - Live Dog Lefty, YouTube, Aug 9, 2025 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1AHkTgF__Y