New Orleans Saints Betting: 2025 NFL Season Outlook

Greg Kajewski
Sep 4
5 min read

Updated: Sep 20

The New Orleans Saints have entered the 2025 NFL season with a turbulent history and plenty of uncertainty. After struggling through the post-Drew Brees era and failing to make the playoffs for four consecutive seasons, the Saints are now looking to reset under new leadership. For sports bettors, this team offers intriguing opportunities - despite their challenges. Let’s dive into the factors shaping the Saints' betting landscape this season, from roster changes and schedule dynamics to betting strategies that could capitalize on their unique situation.

A Rocky Transition: The Post-Drew Brees Era

The Saints have yet to find their footing following the retirement of their legendary quarterback Drew Brees. Over the past four years, they’ve been plagued by injuries, coaching issues, and a constant churn at the quarterback position. Last season (2024), they posted a disappointing record, highlighted by a string of seven consecutive losses and several late-game collapses. Head coach Dennis Allen was ultimately dismissed, leaving the team to regroup under new head coach Kellen Moore.

Kellen Moore, previously the offensive coordinator for the Cowboys, Chargers, and Eagles, brings a fresh perspective and a more aggressive offensive philosophy. While success as an offensive coordinator doesn’t guarantee head coaching prowess, Moore is widely seen as an upgrade over Allen. However, his success will depend on navigating a team that lacks stability at quarterback and is recovering from one of the worst injury profiles in the league.

The Saints’ Quarterback Conundrum

One of the biggest question marks for the Saints this season lies in their quarterback situation. With veteran Derek Carr retiring, the team is left to choose between two underwhelming options: backup Spencer Rattler and rookie Tyler Shough. Reports suggest Shough is the frontrunner to start, as the coaching staff is already familiar with Rattler’s limitations.

This uncertainty at quarterback, coupled with their performance in 2024, has heavily influenced oddsmakers' assessments of the Saints. At many sportsbooks, the Saints currently have the league’s lowest projected win total, set at 5.5 wins. However, bettors should note that this figure has already been adjusted downward from an initial 6.5 wins, indicating strong public skepticism.

A Favorable Schedule Amid Challenges

While the Saints’ roster may raise red flags, their 2025 schedule provides a glimmer of hope. They are slated to face the league’s second-easiest schedule, with only one opponent (Buffalo Bills) ranked in the top 10 based on last year’s defensive EPA ratings. Furthermore, the Saints’ schedule is strategically favorable for avoiding extreme weather conditions, typically a disadvantage for dome teams like New Orleans. They will play all cold-weather teams, such as Buffalo and Chicago, early in the season before winter sets in.

However, the schedule isn’t without its pitfalls. The Saints face a league-high four instances of back-to-back road games. Historically, teams playing the second leg of consecutive road games have performed slightly below average, but context matters. Unlike teams playing on short weeks, the Saints will play every game on a Sunday, giving them the benefit of a regular routine and adequate rest.

Key Factors Influencing the Saints’ Betting Value

1. Injury Recovery and Offensive Line Reinforcements

The Saints were decimated by injuries in 2024, particularly on the offensive line. They had the league’s worst injury metric, known as Adjusted Games Lost (AGL), at key positions like quarterback, offensive line, and wide receiver. Their offensive line, in particular, was in flux all year, with players being shuffled across positions due to injuries.

This offseason, the Saints addressed this glaring weakness by drafting left tackle Kelvin Banks in the first round. Banks’ arrival allows Trevor Penning to move back to his natural position at guard, shoring up the offensive line and potentially giving the team much-needed stability.

2. Rest Disadvantage Is Overstated

The Saints rank second-worst in net rest disadvantage, primarily because they face three teams coming off bye weeks (Rams, Dolphins, and Panthers). However, each of these matchups still allows the Saints a full week of preparation. The context here is crucial: playing on short rest is far more detrimental than facing a well-rested team while having adequate preparation time. Outside of these three games, the Saints will enjoy either neutral rest or a slight rest advantage in their remaining matchups.

3. Luck and Close Games

The Saints were one of the unluckiest teams in 2024, losing multiple games where they had an 80% win probability heading into the fourth quarter. They went 2-6 in one-score games and experienced a significant drop-off in second-half performance. While these trends highlight their struggles, they also point to potential regression to the mean. With modest improvements and better late-game decision-making, the Saints could outperform their low expectations.

4. Betting Implications of the Win Total

Although the Saints have the league’s lowest projected win total, bettors may find value in taking the over 4.5 or 5.5 wins, particularly at favorable odds. As pointed out by analysts, the Saints don’t need to be great - they just need to be marginally better than the bottom tier of the league. In a weak NFC South division, they have a legitimate chance to exceed expectations, especially if their revamped offensive line gives the quarterback enough protection to utilize their proven playmakers like wide receiver Brandon Cooks and running back Alvin Kamara.

Key Takeaways

Quarterback Uncertainty: With no clear standout, Tyler Shough is expected to start, but the Saints’ quarterback play remains a concern.
Soft Schedule: The Saints face the second-easiest schedule in the league, avoiding elite defenses and extreme weather conditions.
Injury Regression: After a disastrous 2024 injury profile, the Saints are healthier and bolstered by offensive line upgrades.
Luck Profile: New Orleans was one of the unluckiest teams last season, signaling potential improvement in key game situations.
Betting Value: The Saints’ win total (4.5 or 5.5) presents upside for bettors who believe in their ability to bounce back, especially with a weak divisional slate.

Final Thoughts

The 2025 New Orleans Saints are a team in transition, but their challenges create opportunities for savvy sports bettors. With a more favorable schedule, better health, and slight improvements at quarterback, the Saints could easily outperform their rock-bottom expectations. While it may not be a playoff year for New Orleans, the betting landscape offers interesting angles to explore. As always, understanding the nuances of their schedule, roster, and injury history will be key to making informed wagers.

Outlook and Source from Lefty of The Betting Network.

Source: "2025 NFL Team Preview | New Orleans Saints | o/u 4.5 Wins!?" - Live Dog Lefty, YouTube, Aug 23, 2025 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uyQst_gASTM

Use: Embedded for reference. Brief quotes used for commentary/review.