A power rating is a single number you assign to each football team that says how many points better or worse it is than an average team on a neutral field, and subtracting one team's rating from the other's, then adding a home field value, gives you your own point spread for the game. Compare that number to the posted line and you have a reason to bet, or a reason to pass, that is yours and not the market's.
What a power rating is
A power rating is not a ranking. A ranking only tells you that one team is better than another. A rating tells you by how much, in points, which is the unit a spread is written in. If your rating for one team is +6.5, you are saying that team would beat a perfectly average opponent by about 6.5 points on a neutral field. A team at 0 is average. A team at -4 is four points worse than average.
Because every team sits on the same points scale, any two can be compared directly. That is the whole trick. Once you have a number for every team in a league, you can price any matchup on the schedule, including games nobody has posted a line for yet.
How to make power ratings
Building your own ratings takes four steps, and none of them needs a model or a spreadsheet full of formulas to start.
- Pick one scale and stick to it. Points above or below an average team on a neutral field is the simplest, because the output is already a spread.
- Set a starting number for every team. Before the season, that means judging each roster: quarterback, lines, coaching, what changed since last year. You will be wrong on some teams. That is fine, because the next step corrects you.
- Adjust after every game, but only by part of the surprise. If your ratings said a team should win by 7 and it won by 21, it probably is better than you thought, but not 14 points better. Move the rating a fraction of the miss, not the whole miss, because one final score carries a lot of noise.
- Keep inputs separate. The rating measures the team. Venue, rest and injuries are adjustments you add on game day, so they do not leak into the number and distort next week.
Take the spread at a fairer number.
Standard -110 juice is the house tax on every spread. On BettorEdge you set your line against other bettors and keep more of every win.
From two ratings to your own spread
Here is the whole build on one game. Your ratings have the home team at +6.5 and the visitor at +2.0. On a neutral field the gap is 4.5 points, so the home team should be a 4.5 point favorite. Now add the venue. The value of playing at home has its own post, how much home field advantage is worth in betting, and this example uses the 1.5 points it describes for the modern NFL. The gap of 4.5 plus 1.5 for home field makes your line home team -6.0.
The posted line is home team -3.5. Your number says the home team should be laying 6. The market is asking you to lay only 3.5. That 2.5 point difference is the entire reason power ratings exist.
Home team spread. Your ratings say the home side is worth 6 points; the posted line charges 3.5. The green gap is what you would be betting on.
Power rating vs betting line: what to do with the gap
A gap is a question, not a bet. When your number and the posted line disagree, ask why before you act.
- A small gap is noise. If your line is -6.0 and the posted line is -6.5, your ratings are not precise enough to claim that half point. Pass.
- A big gap means check the news first. The market may know something your ratings do not yet reflect, such as a starting quarterback ruled out. If the news explains the gap, the gap is gone.
- A gap that survives the check is a bet. In the example, your number says home -3.5 is 2.5 points too cheap, so the home side at -3.5 is the play. If the posted line had been -8, the same ratings would point you to the visitor at +8.
How a book arrives at that posted number in the first place is covered in how Vegas odds are set, and what happens to it once money arrives is in why betting lines move. Your ratings are the bettor-side answer to both: a number you built, to hold theirs against.
NFL and college football ratings are built the same way
The method does not change between leagues, but the spread of the scale does. NFL teams are bunched closer together, so the ratings sit in a tighter band and small adjustments matter. College football covers far more teams with far wider talent gaps, so the distance between the top and bottom of your ratings is much larger, and the early season ratings rest more on your preseason judgment because teams play few common opponents. Check your numbers against the week's board on the NFL hub and the college football hub.
Venue is only one of the game-day adjustments. Rest is another, such as a team coming off a bye, and it deserves its own value rather than a guess folded into the rating.
Power ratings FAQ
What are power ratings in betting?
Power ratings in betting are point values assigned to each team that measure how much better or worse it is than an average team on a neutral field. Subtracting one team's rating from another's gives the expected margin between them, which works as a point spread. Bettors compare that number to the posted line to decide whether a side is worth betting.
How do you turn power ratings into a point spread?
You turn power ratings into a point spread by subtracting the visitor's rating from the home team's rating and then adding a home field value. With the home team at +6.5, the visitor at +2.0 and home field worth 1.5 points, the math is 6.5 minus 2.0 plus 1.5, which makes the home team a 6 point favorite.
What do you do when your power rating differs from the betting line?
When your power rating differs from the betting line by more than a point or so, first check injury and lineup news, and bet the side your number favors only if nothing explains the gap. A half point difference is within the error of any set of ratings and is a pass. A gap the news does not explain is the situation power ratings are built to find.
Your number is only worth something if you can bet it at a fair price. On BettorEdge community odds you post the line you built against other real bettors, with no house margin added on top, so the gap you found stays yours. Open BettorEdge and get this price for real, peer-to-peer.
Take the spread at a fairer number.
Standard -110 juice is the house tax on every spread. On BettorEdge you set your line against other bettors and keep more of every win.