Preakness Stakes 2025: Odds, Analysis, & Post Time
Greg Kajewski- 1 day ago
- 14 min read
The 150th Preakness Stakes happens Saturday, May 17, 2025, at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. Post time is set for 7:01 p.m. EDT. This year’s race features nine contenders, but notably, Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty won’t compete. Journalism, the Derby runner-up, is the favorite at 8-5 odds. Key challengers include Sandman (4-1), River Thames (9-2), and Clever Again (5-1). Six of the last eight Preakness winners skipped the Derby, making fresh horses like River Thames strong contenders. Coverage starts at 4:00 p.m. EDT on NBC.
Quick Overview:
- Post Time: 7:01 p.m. EDT, May 17, 2025
- Favorite: Journalism (8-5)
- Top Contenders: Sandman (4-1), River Thames (9-2), Clever Again (5-1)
- Purse: $2 million
- Coverage: NBC at 4:00 p.m. EDT
Early speed and tactical positioning will be crucial, with 80% of winners historically leading within the first half-mile. Expect a competitive race with opportunities for both favorites and longshots.
Preakness Stakes 2025 Post Position Draw & Odds | Blinkers Off 723
1. Goal Oriented (6-1)
Goal Oriented comes into the Preakness with an unblemished record, having won both of his career starts. Purchased for $425,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, he first turned heads with a three-length closing victory in a six-furlong race at Santa Anita. He followed that up with a commanding front-running win in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs, earning an impressive Speed Figure of 109. These performances have clearly bolstered the confidence of his team.
Bob Baffert, aiming for his ninth Preakness win, shared his thoughts on the colt's post position:
"The 1 hole is not as bad here as it would be in the Derby"
Tom Ryan of SF Racing also praised the horse's preparation and mindset:
"He's a very tractable sort of horse that has gears and seems to be strong mentally. He's really come out of his race in incredible form. He's bounced out floating over the track. He's a big, stylish, quality two-turn colt whom we feel has the foundation to come back in two weeks."
With Flavien Prat in the saddle, Goal Oriented enters the race as a strong 6-1 contender, ready to make his mark in this leg of the Triple Crown.
2. Journalism (8-5)
Journalism, pegged as the morning line favorite at 8-5, boasts an impressive record of 4-1-1 with earnings of $1,638,880 across just six starts under trainer Michael McCarthy. His streak of four consecutive victories in California includes standout performances in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), San Felipe (G2), and the Santa Anita Derby (G1). These efforts have earned him a top Equibase speed figure of 110, underscoring his consistency at the highest level.
In the Kentucky Derby, Journalism demonstrated both grit and adaptability. After encountering early bump trouble on a sloppy track, he rallied from 11th place to briefly take the lead before being overtaken by Sovereignty, ultimately finishing second. It was a performance that showcased his ability to handle tough conditions and still deliver a strong run.
"I've taken a peek at the probables, it's a competitive spot... It looks like there's a little bit of pace in there, you'd expect that. It's a Triple Crown race, you expect it to be competitive", said trainer Michael McCarthy, who previously won the 2021 Preakness with Rombauer.
"He should be the favorite. Watching him run and chasing him, he ran a great Derby... He is a really good horse and ran a big race in the Derby. Usually a horse with a good Derby form will run well in the Preakness."
With Umberto Rispoli as his jockey, Journalism’s versatility and proven track record make him the horse to beat in this field. Next, we'll take a closer look at American Promise and his chances in the race.
3. American Promise (15-1)
American Promise heads into the Preakness Stakes after a tough 16th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. This colt, purchased for $750,000 at the 2023 Keeneland sale, has a career record of 2-1-1 from 10 starts, earning $444,874 in prize money. One of his standout moments came in the Virginia Derby (G3), where he shattered the 1⅛-mile track record with a blazing time of 1:46.41, winning by an impressive 7¾ lengths. That performance has prompted trainer D. Wayne Lukas to tweak his strategy for the Preakness. However, his Derby run only earned him a 52 Equibase Speed Figure.
"He got wiped out at the gate by the one-hole coming over. Actually, three of us took a beating on that. Then he made up good ground, and when he was ready to make a move, they shut him down again", explained D. Wayne Lukas.
Lukas, a Hall of Fame trainer, brings a wealth of experience to this race. With a Preakness record of 7 wins, 1 second, and 5 thirds from 48 starts, he's just one victory behind Bob Baffert's all-time record of eight wins.
"What I'm trying to do is get him focused on getting into his races quicker because with a 20-horse (Kentucky Derby) field, there's always a problem. Put yourself in a place where you can (avoid trouble)", Lukas noted.
American Promise’s stalking running style could give him an edge in the smaller Pimlico field, making him a contender to outperform his 15-1 morning line odds.
4. Heart of Honor (12-1)
Heart of Honor, a colt bred in Britain and purchased for $172,341 at the 2024 Arqana May 2-Year-Old Breeze Up sale, enters the Preakness Stakes with a solid resume. He narrowly missed victory in the UAE Derby, finishing second, and currently holds a 2-4-0 record with $340,919 in earnings.
Trainer Jamie Osborne made the strategic decision to skip the Kentucky Derby, prioritizing recovery time for the horse.
"The Kentucky Derby was clearly going to be too soon for him. Logistically, it was going to be nearly impossible to ship from Dubai back here (to England) and then to America. The extra couple of weeks will probably be to our benefit, as well. We're going to have a go, and if he runs OK in the Preakness the aim is to hang on for another three weeks and go to Saratoga (for the Belmont)."
Heart of Honor’s campaign stands out due to its international scope, setting him apart from many of his competitors. If he wins, he would become only the third foreign-bred horse to claim victory in the Preakness Stakes. Adding to the intrigue is the father-daughter partnership, with Saffie Osborne riding for her father, Jamie Osborne.
Jamie Osborne sees parallels between Heart of Honor and his former star, Toast of New York:
"If you asked me that three or four months ago, I'd say, 'No.' Other than they are both big, scopey, good-looking, good-actioned horses, Heart of Honor didn't have Toast's strength. But I say he has now. He's just thriving at the right time. I suppose when Toast won the UAE Derby, he was a little bit of a shell and by the time we got to the Breeders' Cup Classic, he had changed and just looked like a monster. This horse now has probably done that change a little bit earlier than Toast. The similarities are: they have great frames and they're strong powerful horses."
This recent surge in strength could give Heart of Honor an edge as he tackles the 1 3/16-mile challenge at Pimlico. After completing the transatlantic quarantine, his impressive UAE Derby performance - missing the win by just a nose with a time of 1:59.14 - demonstrates he has the stamina and ability to compete at this level.
5. Pay Billy (20-1)
Maryland's own Pay Billy has been making waves this season with a solid 4-1-1 record from eight starts, racking up $234,475 in earnings. His recent performances at Laurel Park have been especially impressive, where he clinched four wins in his last five starts. Among those victories were the Private Terms Stakes and the Federico Tesio Stakes on April 19, which secured him an automatic spot in the Preakness Stakes. The only blemish on this streak was a razor-thin second-place finish in the Miracle Wood Stakes on February 22, where he fell just a nose short in the one-mile race.
This transformation hasn’t gone unnoticed by his trainer and connections.
"He turned a corner when he turned 3", said Gorham about Pay Billy. "He wasn't that focused as a baby, and it took a couple races for him to even figure out what he was doing. We always thought he had a lot of talent and wanted to go further, and that's the way it turned out."
Another factor working in Pay Billy’s favor is his familiarity with Laurel Park. Having trained there through the winter, he has an edge on Maryland's racing surfaces that could prove crucial.
"This is their first horse, so they're getting a good introduction. It's like a home game for us. It's great. It's definitely a big move. Everybody wants to be in a Triple Crown race, that's for sure. If we can get lucky and get a good piece of it, that'd be great."
Though listed at 20-1 odds, Pay Billy’s consistent progress and home-track advantage make him a compelling contender to watch. Originally purchased for $60,000 at the 2024 Ocala Breeders' Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training, he’s already shown his worth. With his connections optimistic about his chances, Pay Billy could deliver a surprising performance in front of his home crowd.
6. River Thames (9-2)
River Thames steps into the Preakness spotlight as a fresh and intriguing contender. After back-to-back victories at Gulfstream Park, this colt, trained by Todd Pletcher, has proven himself a consistent force in graded stakes races. His narrow second-place finish to Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and a solid third-place effort in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) highlight his ability to compete at the highest levels. Skipping the Derby seems to have been a calculated move, a strategy that has paid off for other recent winners.
Pletcher’s decision to bypass the Derby reflects a growing trend among trainers, offering River Thames the chance to enter the Preakness with fresh legs.
"He's run well in every start. The tough beat in the Fountain of Youth looks even stronger after Sovereignty's performance in the Derby", said Pletcher. "We're hoping maybe by bringing in a fresh horse, it will give us a little bit of an advantage."
River Thames looks sharp heading into the 1 3/16-mile race. A recent half-mile workout at Belmont Park clocked in at :48.25 seconds, with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle. While the workout was promising, Pletcher remains focused on breaking his Preakness drought, having gone winless in his previous 10 attempts.
"I'd love to check that box; we will give it a try", Pletcher remarked about his pursuit of a Preakness victory.
Tactical speed will be key at Pimlico, where 80% of winners have raced in the front half of the field after the opening half-mile. River Thames fits this profile nicely, making him a serious contender for the win. At 9-2 odds, BettorEdge highlights him as a strong value pick in its Preakness guide, aligning with the importance of early positioning in this race.
7. Sandman (4-1)
Sandman heads to the Preakness after a challenging run in the Kentucky Derby. A bump early in the race forced him to rally from 18th place, navigating nine-wide to finish seventh. Trainer Mark Casse sees echoes of his 2019 Preakness winner, War of Will, who also overcame a seventh-place Derby finish to triumph in Baltimore.
A $1.2 million purchase, Sandman has already proven his talent, most notably with a dominant 2½-length victory in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Confidence in his ability remains high, as Casse noted:
"We wanted to see how he came back. He's an extremely happy horse right now. It looks like the race might set up nice for him. It looks like there's a fair amount of speed." - Mark Casse
Historically, horses finishing outside the top four in the Derby have had success in the Preakness. Since 1970, 23.6% of Preakness winners had finished fifth or worse in the Derby. This statistic adds weight to Casse's decision to enter Sandman, especially with adjustments to his race-day setup.
One of the most notable changes is the switch to veteran jockey John Velazquez, replacing José Ortiz. Velazquez’s experience, combined with Sandman’s strong closing kick, could be pivotal in a race expected to feature a fast early pace.
"I always quote Allen Jerkens, 'Run 'em when they're good,' and he's good right now. We were planning on waiting for the Belmont, but a lot of things can happen in between. He's telling us he's happy so we're going to go with it." - Mark Casse
At 4-1 odds, Sandman’s talent and potential are clear. His team is banking on a smoother trip at Pimlico, with BettorEdge suggesting that track conditions could play a critical role in his performance.
8. Clever Again (5-1)
Clever Again has quickly proven himself a rising star under the guidance of trainer Steve Asmussen. In just three starts, he’s posted impressive Equibase Speed Figures of 86, 100, and 108. Purchased for $500,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, this colt showcased his potential in the Hot Springs Stakes, where he defeated a Grade 1 winner by a commanding four lengths, earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure.
Steve Asmussen praised the horse’s capabilities, saying:
"He's physically capable, very athletic and his cruising speed suggests that the farther he goes, the better he'll be. He ran a very fast race at a mile and a sixteenth, and I believe the distance won't be an issue."
Clever Again’s combination of speed and stamina positions him as a serious contender for the Preakness. His ownership group is equally elite, featuring Winchell Thoroughbreds (50%) alongside Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith. Paired with Asmussen’s track record of Preakness success, this colt’s profile is hard to ignore.
Here’s a quick look at his progression:
Race | Equibase Speed Figure | Result |
Debut | 86 | Second |
Second Start | 100 | Won |
Hot Springs Stakes | 108 | Won by 4 lengths |
With Jose Ortiz as his jockey and his form improving with each race, Clever Again stands out as a strong value pick for Preakness bettors, according to BettorEdge.
9. Gosger (20-1)
In a lineup packed with seasoned competitors and Derby veterans, Gosger stands out as an intriguing longshot with plenty of potential. His entry comes on the heels of a two-length victory in the $400,000 Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. Adding to the buzz, his pedigree is noteworthy - his dam is a half-sister to Preakness winner - which raises hopes for his future success.
Gosger clocked 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.15 during the Lexington Stakes, showcasing strong closing fractions:
Section | Time |
Last 3/8 mile | :37.62 |
Final furlong | :12.88 |
Total time | 1:44.15 |
Trainer Brendan Walsh has expressed cautious optimism about Gosger’s progress:
"He's got a lot of maturing to do -- he's still a little raw... But I love what I saw today. I think he's got some big days in front of him. I think he's a very nice horse in the making. He was still a little green, but he beat a couple of really nice horses today."
Although Gosger’s Equibase speed figures (80-94-96) suggest he still has some catching up to do to compete with favorites like Journalism, his natural stalking style and the five-week break since the Lexington give him room to develop. Luis Saez will ride him for the first time, making this Gosger’s fourth jockey in as many starts. BettorEdge sees him as a solid option for exotic wagers, thanks to his potential for further improvement.
Racing analyst Mike Curry also weighed in on Gosger’s chances:
"I think there is significant untapped potential in Gosger, he could get a dream trip in the Preakness, and I think he's built for the 1 3/16-mile distance. I don't think he's good enough to beat Kentucky Derby runner-up Journalism if he brings his 'A' game (or even B+), but I do think he could round out the exacta in the Preakness. That would be a heck of a result for a 3-year-old in his fourth race."
As BettorEdge highlights, Gosger’s mix of potential and favorable conditions makes him a compelling choice for exotic bets in the Preakness Stakes.
Horse Comparison
The 2025 Preakness Stakes lineup brings together a mix of running styles and recent performances that could heavily influence the race's outcome. At Pimlico, track position has historically played a significant role, with 80% of winners over the past two decades running in the front half of the field after the first half-mile. This trend favors front-runners such as Goal Oriented, Clever Again, and River Thames.
Key Field Characteristics
Horse | Odds | Running Style | Key Performance |
Journalism | 8-5 | Stalker | 2nd in the Kentucky Derby |
River Thames | 9-2 | Front-runner | 3rd in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) |
Sandman | 4-1 | Closer | 7th in the Kentucky Derby |
Clever Again | 5-1 | Front-runner | Won Hot Springs race |
Goal Oriented | 6-1 | Front-runner | Won a Churchill Downs allowance |
Heart of Honor | 12-1 | Stalker | 2nd in the UAE Derby (G2) |
American Promise | 15-1 | Early mover | 16th in the Kentucky Derby |
Pay Billy | 20-1 | Early mover | Won the Federico Tesio Stakes |
Gosger | 20-1 | Early mover | Won the Lexington Stakes (G3) |
Fresh vs. Derby Runners
Horses bypassing the Kentucky Derby often hold an edge at the Preakness, as recent history suggests. Among this year’s non-Derby starters, River Thames stands out with a strong third-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, highlighting his potential to capitalize on fresher legs.
Class and Connections
This year’s field also showcases some of the sport’s most decorated trainers, many with a proven track record at the Preakness:
- Bob Baffert () – 8 wins
- D. Wayne Lukas () – 7 wins
- Steve Asmussen () – 2 wins
- Michael McCarthy ()
BettorEdge’s analysis points to Journalism as a standout contender, given his four consecutive wins in California leading up to a strong second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. However, fresh challengers like River Thames and Clever Again could disrupt the Derby runners, especially with Pimlico’s track favoring early speed and tactical positioning. With these factors in mind, trainer expertise and race dynamics will be crucial for bettors looking to spot value in this year’s field.
Betting Guide and Summary
Looking at historical trends and current stats, a few key betting angles emerge for the 2025 Preakness Stakes. At Pimlico, 80% of winners take the lead within the first half-mile. This makes early positioning absolutely crucial when planning your wagers.
Top Value Picks
Horse | Odds | Key Advantages | Betting Strategy |
River Thames | 9-2 | Fresh legs, tactical speed | Win, exacta key |
Journalism | 8-5 | Grade 1 proven, Derby runner-up | Multi-race keys |
Clever Again | 5-1 | Undefeated in 2025, strong speed | Win/place |
Gosger | 20-1 | Fresh, showing improving form | Longshot value |
This mix of contenders highlights a balance of freshness and proven ability. Recent Preakness Stakes trends show fresh horses dominating - six of the last eight winners skipped the Kentucky Derby. Additionally, horses coming off a defeat have won 60% of the last 20 Preakness races, putting Journalism in a favorable position.
For those looking to refine their betting experience, BettorEdge's peer-to-peer marketplace offers a no-vig platform where bettors can set their own odds and execute strategic wagers.
Key Betting Strategies
- Primary Plays: Focus on horses with tactical speed who can secure an early lead, such as River Thames and Clever Again.
- Value Hunting: Six of the last 20 winners started at double-digit odds. Gosger (20-1) is worth considering as a longshot.
- Exotic Wagers: Build trifecta or superfecta bets around strong contenders, using longshot picks like Gosger to boost potential payouts.
"We're pretty confident he can carry his speed a long distance. He's very professional. He acts like a horse who just wants to do it. Mentally, he's doing great. Physically, he's doing great, and they think he's coming into his own."– Ron Winchell, co-owner of Clever Again
With post time set for 7:01 p.m. EDT on May 13, 2025, focus on horses with early tactical speed and don’t overlook longshots for added value at Pimlico.
FAQs
Why isn’t Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty running in the 2025 Preakness Stakes?
Sovereignty Skips the Preakness Stakes
Sovereignty, the 2025 Kentucky Derby champion, will not compete in the Preakness Stakes. While no official explanation has been given, it's not unusual for Derby winners to sit out the Preakness. Often, connections make this choice to give the horse more time to recover or to focus on upcoming races.
This move reflects a growing pattern among top-tier horses in recent years. Some owners and trainers are opting to skip the Preakness to prioritize the horse's health and long-term performance. Sovereignty's absence is sure to shake up the race, creating opportunities for other strong competitors to take the spotlight in the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Why might some horses skip the Kentucky Derby and focus on the Preakness Stakes?
Skipping the Kentucky Derby can provide horses with extra time to rest and recover, which might enhance their stamina and readiness for the Preakness Stakes. This gives trainers the opportunity to focus on tailoring their preparation for the specific demands of the second leg of the Triple Crown.
By sitting out the Derby, horses avoid the intense physical strain of running in a crowded, high-stakes race. This can leave them fresher and potentially more competitive when they take to the track at Pimlico. Additionally, this strategy may help safeguard a horse's long-term racing career, extending their potential well beyond the Triple Crown season.
What are the most important factors to consider when betting on the 2025 Preakness Stakes, especially regarding speed and track strategy?
When placing bets on the 2025 Preakness Stakes, keep a close eye on tactical speed and track positioning. Horses that show early speed often hold an advantage - just look at the stats: six of the last 20 winners were leading after the first half-mile. Interestingly, seven of the last ten winners entered the race after a loss, proving that a recent setback doesn’t necessarily mean a horse is out of contention at Pimlico.
Also, focus on contenders with a strong track record in graded stakes races. Success in these high-stakes events is a reliable sign that a horse can handle the pressure of a major race. Lastly, take the time to analyze each horse’s running style. Pimlico’s shorter track tends to favor those who can stay near the front, making positioning a critical factor in predicting the outcome.
