What is +EV? Expected Value in Sports Betting and Why It Matters

Greg Kajewski
20 hours ago
12 min read

Updated: 4 hours ago

Expected value (+EV) in sports betting is a way to calculate whether a bet is likely to be profitable over time. It’s not about predicting the outcome of a single game but about finding bets where the odds are better than the actual probability of an event happening.

Key points:

+EV bets mean the payout exceeds the risk, leading to long-term profits.
-EV bets result in consistent losses due to unfavorable odds or sportsbook fees.
BettorEdge, a peer-to-peer betting platform, increases +EV opportunities by eliminating fees and letting users set their own odds.

Formula for EV:EV = (Probability of Win × Payout) - (Probability of Loss × Stake)

Example: A $100 bet with a 58% chance of winning and odds implying a 51.2% chance gives a +$71.24 EV. This means you’d expect $71.24 in profit for every $100 bet over time.

Focusing on +EV bets and managing your bankroll can turn betting into a profitable, calculated strategy, especially on platforms like BettorEdge that allow for user-driven odds and transparent pricing.

How To Calculate Expected Value - +EV Sports Modelling

How to Calculate Expected Value in Sports Betting

Understanding how to calculate Expected Value (EV) is essential for spotting profitable bets in peer-to-peer betting markets. Let’s break it down step by step.

The Expected Value Formula

The EV formula helps you determine whether a bet is worth making. Here’s the basic formula:

EV = (Probability of Win × Payout) - (Probability of Loss × Stake)

Here's what each term represents:

Probability of Win: Your estimated chance of winning, expressed as a decimal (e.g., 0.60 for 60%).
Payout: The total amount you’ll receive if you win, including your original stake.
Probability of Loss: Calculated as 1 minus the Probability of Win.
Stake: The amount you’re risking on the bet.

A positive EV means the bet is expected to be profitable over time (+EV), while a negative EV suggests you’re likely to lose money in the long run.

For example, if you estimate a 55% chance of winning while the market prices it at 50%, that gap is your edge - and an opportunity for a +EV bet.

Converting American Odds to Implied Probability

Before calculating EV, you need to convert American odds into implied probabilities. American odds are displayed with a "+" for underdogs and a "−" for favorites, and the conversion process differs for each.

For positive odds (e.g., +150):Implied Probability = (100 / (American Odds + 100)) × 100 Example: With +150 odds, the calculation is:(100 / (150 + 100)) × 100 = 40%.This means the market gives a 40% chance for that outcome.
For negative odds (e.g., -150):Implied Probability = (|American Odds| / (|American Odds| + 100)) × 100 Example: With -150 odds, the calculation is:(150 / (150 + 100)) × 100 = 60%.Here, the market suggests a 60% chance for the outcome.

Keep in mind that these probabilities include the bookmaker's margin. Your goal is to find situations where your estimated probability is higher than what the market implies.

Real Examples of EV Calculations

Let’s see how this works with a real-world example.

Imagine a Thursday Night Football game where the Buffalo Bills are listed at -105 odds to cover the spread. First, convert the odds to implied probability:

Implied Probability = (105 / (105 + 100)) × 100 ≈ 51.2%.

Now, let’s say your analysis suggests the Bills have a 58% chance of covering the spread, and you’re planning to bet $100. Here’s how the EV calculation plays out:

Probability of Win: 0.58 (58%)
Payout if Win: $195.24 (your $100 stake plus approximately $95.24 in winnings)
Probability of Loss: 0.42 (42%)
Stake: $100

Using the formula:EV = (0.58 × $195.24) - (0.42 × $100)≈ $113.24 - $42.00= +$71.24

This +$71.24 EV means that, on average, you’d expect to profit $71.24 for every $100 bet placed under similar conditions. Over 100 bets, that’s about $7,124 in potential profit.

Now, let’s flip the scenario. Suppose you analyze the same game and determine the Bills only have a 48% chance of covering the spread, but the odds still imply a 51.2% chance. Here’s the EV calculation:

EV = (0.48 × $195.24) - (0.52 × $100)≈ $93.72 - $52.00= −$41.72

An EV of -$41.72 signals that this bet is likely to result in losses over time. This is exactly the type of bet you should avoid.

Finding +EV Opportunities in Betting Markets

Peer-to-peer betting platforms open the door to unique +EV (expected value) opportunities by highlighting market inefficiencies that traditional sportsbooks tend to hide.

How Peer-to-Peer Betting Stands Apart from Sportsbooks

In traditional sportsbooks, odds are set by the house, which includes a built-in edge (the vig) designed to tilt the scales in its favor. Essentially, you’re betting against the house, and the odds are structured to ensure its profitability.

Peer-to-peer betting takes a different approach. Instead of competing against a centralized operator, you place bets directly with other users, while the platform simply helps with the exchange - similar to how online marketplaces work.

This setup creates several advantages for finding +EV bets. Since the odds are driven by user activity, skilled bettors can take advantage of mispriced lines caused by market inefficiencies. With this in mind, there are proven ways to identify these opportunities in peer-to-peer markets.

Methods for Identifying +EV Bets

Finding +EV bets in peer-to-peer platforms requires a thoughtful and systematic approach. Here are some strategies to consider:

Compare Market Odds to Your Own Analysis: Assess the true probability of an event compared to the market’s implied probability. Any significant gap could signal a +EV opportunity.
Track Line Movements: Peer-to-peer markets can be slower to react to breaking news, creating brief windows where odds are misaligned.
Spot Emotional Betting Trends: High-profile games often attract bettors driven by passion rather than logic. This can lead to overvalued favorites or overlooked underdogs, presenting profitable chances.
Use Community Insights Wisely: Some bettors share their reasoning and track records. While their insights can be helpful, always double-check their conclusions with your own analysis.
Explore Niche Markets: Smaller sports or niche prop bets often receive less attention, leaving room for pricing errors that savvy bettors can exploit.

How BettorEdge Tools Help You Maximize Value

BettorEdge offers tools designed to help bettors uncover hidden value and refine their strategies:

BetMatch Feature: This tool compares external market prices with platform odds, making it easier to spot discrepancies.
Advanced Analytics and Historical Data: Dive into trends and performance data to identify patterns in team performance and market movements.
Social Feed and Community Features: Real-time insights from other bettors can reveal patterns or opportunities you might have missed.
Real-Time Market Data: Access to up-to-date odds ensures you can act quickly in fast-changing markets.
No-Fee Orders: With no transaction fees, even small edges can add up to meaningful profits over time.

Why +EV Matters for Long-Term Profitability

Positive Expected Value (+EV) betting isn't just a buzzword - it’s a strategy that turns betting into a calculated investment. By leveraging the mathematical certainty of +EV, bettors can achieve consistent profits over time, making it a cornerstone of long-term success.

Short-Term Variance vs Long-Term Gains

Imagine placing ten +EV bets and losing eight of them. It’s frustrating, sure, but it doesn’t mean your strategy is flawed. What you’re experiencing is variance, a natural part of any probabilistic activity like betting.

Take a +EV bet with a 55% win rate. In the short term, you might face losing streaks, but over thousands of bets, the results will align with the expected advantage. For instance, a bet with a 4% edge won’t guarantee a win every time, but across a large enough sample, it will average out to a 4% profit.

This is why professional bettors focus on the process, not individual results. A bad week doesn’t mean a bad strategy - it just reflects the inherent ups and downs of variance. Over time, as the number of bets increases, variance evens out, paving the way for steady returns and effective bankroll growth.

Impact of +EV on ROI and Bankroll Management

Consistently placing +EV bets has a compounding effect on your bankroll. Even a small edge, like 2-5%, can lead to substantial profits over hundreds of bets. For example, let’s say you place 500 bets of $100 each:

With a 2% edge, your expected profit is $1,000.
With a 5% edge, your expected profit jumps to $2,500.

That’s a $1,500 difference, all from improving your bet selection by just 3%.

Bankroll management plays a big role here. When you consistently identify +EV opportunities, you can size your bets more confidently without exposing yourself to unnecessary risk. This approach not only maximizes your returns but also safeguards your bankroll from catastrophic losses.

The structured nature of +EV betting also allows for more predictable bankroll growth, making it easier to plan financially. This predictability is a key advantage over conventional betting methods, setting the stage for sustainable success.

Comparison: +EV Betting vs Regular Betting

The contrast between +EV betting and typical betting strategies becomes clear when you look at long-term outcomes:

Approach	Pros	Cons
+EV Betting	Long-term profitability, systematic edge, predictable growth	Requires skill, patience, and time-intensive research
Regular Betting	Easier to understand, less analysis required	Higher risk of losses, relies on luck, inconsistent returns

+EV betting transforms sports betting into a skill-based strategy with a clear path to profitability. On the other hand, regular betting often depends on luck and lacks the systematic edge needed for consistent results.

The decision boils down to this: Are you investing with a calculated edge, or gambling with chance? With +EV betting, you’re choosing a method grounded in math and strategy, offering a reliable route to long-term success.

Using +EV Concepts on BettorEdge

BettorEdge brings a fresh twist to +EV (positive expected value) betting by combining it with a community-driven platform. Through social features, analytics, and competitive challenges, users can uncover and capitalize on opportunities that offer positive expected value.

By leveraging BettorEdge's tools, bettors can refine their strategies using performance tracking and interactive features that make identifying +EV bets more accessible and engaging.

The social marketplace on BettorEdge is a goldmine for spotting +EV opportunities, especially when you can pinpoint mispriced markets.

One of the simplest ways to identify potential value is by following successful bettors. BettorEdge’s social feed allows users to share their picks in real time, giving you direct insight into the strategies of profitable bettors. By tracking their bets, you can learn from their experience and potentially replicate their success.

BettorEdge Groups take this concept even further. These groups are like specialized communities focused on particular niches, such as NBA player props or NFL totals. Members share insights, discuss line movements, and collectively identify where market pricing doesn’t align with the true probabilities of outcomes. These discussions often reveal opportunities for +EV bets that might otherwise go unnoticed.

The exchange format is another standout feature for finding value. On BettorEdge, you can set your own odds and wait for someone to match them. For example, if you believe a team has a 60% chance of winning but manage to secure odds that imply only a 55% chance, you’ve just created a +EV bet. This flexibility puts more control in your hands compared to traditional sportsbooks.

Market liquidity is also key. With millions of dollars changing hands on BettorEdge each month, there’s plenty of action to uncover pricing inefficiencies. Early in the week, for instance, casual bettors might offer overly generous odds on their favorite teams, creating opportunities for sharper bettors to step in and take advantage.

Pair these social features with BettorEdge’s analytics, and you have a powerful toolkit for refining your betting approach.

Tracking Performance and Improving Strategies

BettorEdge’s analytics tools help transform +EV betting into a more precise, data-driven process. By breaking down your performance across different leagues, bet types, and time periods, the platform helps you identify where your strategies are working and where they might need fine-tuning.

For instance, ROI tracking by sport can highlight which markets you excel in. If you consistently find value in NBA totals but struggle with NFL spreads, you can adjust your focus accordingly. Meanwhile, historical performance charts give you a long-term view of your results, helping you stay disciplined even during losing streaks.

Another useful feature is bet tracking by outcome type, which helps you analyze whether you’re better at spotting value in underdogs, favorites, overs, or unders. This granular data allows you to zero in on the bet types where you’re most effective, saving time and effort in your research.

To add even more context, BettorEdge’s community leaderboards let you compare your performance against other users. By seeing how your ROI and win percentage stack up, you can gauge how well your strategies are working and identify areas for improvement.

Testing +EV Strategies in Competitions

Once you’ve identified and tracked potential value, BettorEdge offers competitions that let you put your strategies to the test. These contests, ranging from free pick’em pools to paid wager-based challenges, provide a low-risk way to practice applying +EV concepts.

Pick’em competitions are particularly useful for honing your value-spotting skills. These contests require you to pick winners across multiple games, rewarding those who can consistently identify sides with positive expected value. Success in this format often reflects a strong grasp of +EV principles.

During events like March Madness, bracket challenges give you a chance to practice evaluating long-term value. These competitions require you to think beyond individual games, considering how different outcomes might affect the overall tournament.

Head-to-head challenges are another great way to test your skills. Competing directly against another bettor over a series of picks provides immediate feedback on your ability to identify value. Over time, the bettor with a better understanding of +EV concepts is likely to come out on top.

Finally, parlay challenges offer a unique way to apply +EV principles to multi-leg bets. While traditional parlays often carry a negative expected value due to compounded house edges, BettorEdge’s peer-to-peer format can create situations where each leg offers value, making the parlay potentially profitable.

The competition leaderboards add an extra layer of validation for your strategies. Consistently performing well across different formats shows that your approach to finding value is solid and repeatable, rather than just a stroke of luck.

The Value of +EV in Sports Betting

Grasping positive expected value (+EV) is key to turning sports betting into a calculated, long-term investment. By consistently identifying and placing bets with +EV, you're essentially tipping the scales in your favor over time.

The math behind this is simple: when your win probability is higher than the implied odds, you're making a bet with value. Over hundreds or even thousands of wagers, this edge can translate into meaningful profits. While traditional sportsbooks make this harder by embedding their profit margins into every line, peer-to-peer platforms like BettorEdge offer a completely different playing field.

BettorEdge's exchange model eliminates the usual high house edge that eats into your expected value. Instead of betting against a sportsbook designed to profit, you place bets directly with other users. This setup allows you to find better odds and maximize your expected value on each wager. BettorEdge even simplifies the math with its Expected Value Calculator. By entering your bet amount, odds, and win probability, you can instantly see the expected value and potential ROI. For instance, placing a $100 bet on the Lakers at +110 odds with a 50% win probability yields a $5 expected value - a 5% profit.

The peer-to-peer marketplace offers even more advantages. BettorEdge combines mathematical precision with community-driven insights. With thousands of users participating, pricing inefficiencies are more common than in traditional sportsbook markets. For example, casual bettors might offer overly generous odds on their favorite teams or misjudge prop bets, creating opportunities for sharp bettors to capitalize on these +EV situations.

One standout feature is the ability to set your own odds. Instead of accepting the lines offered by a sportsbook, you can decide on the price that makes a bet worthwhile for you and wait for someone to match it. This flexibility ensures you're not settling for subpar value when better opportunities might be available.

BettorEdge also provides tools to fine-tune your +EV strategies. By tracking your performance across different markets, you can identify where you're most successful at finding value and focus your efforts there. The platform’s community leaderboards add another layer of validation - consistent wins in competitions or head-to-head challenges often reflect a solid understanding of +EV principles.

With millions in monthly volume, BettorEdge offers the liquidity needed for serious +EV betting. Active markets across major sports ensure there's always action when you spot value. This combination of high liquidity, community-driven pricing, and analytical tools makes BettorEdge a great environment for bettors looking to apply +EV strategies effectively and profitably.

FAQs

What is +EV, and how can it improve long-term success in sports betting?

Understanding +EV (positive expected value) plays a crucial role in achieving long-term success in sports betting. It allows bettors to spot situations where the likelihood of winning exceeds what the odds imply. By consistently placing bets with a positive expected value, you can gain an advantage over the sportsbook and set yourself up for profitable outcomes in the long run.

This method minimizes the influence of short-term luck or variance and prioritizes decisions grounded in data and logic. Over time, as you place more bets, the results tend to reflect the expected value calculations, making +EV betting a fundamental part of any effective strategy.

How can I find +EV opportunities on peer-to-peer sports betting platforms?

To find +EV (positive expected value) opportunities on peer-to-peer sports betting platforms, start by comparing odds and assessing probabilities. Break it down like this: evaluate the implied probabilities from betting lines and match them against your own calculations or trusted market data. When you notice the implied probability is lower than the actual likelihood of an outcome, it’s a sign you’ve found a potential +EV bet.

Another approach is to keep an eye on market trends and use tools that track real-time odds changes. Discrepancies in betting lines across different platforms or markets can reveal undervalued bets worth considering. By consistently spotting and acting on these opportunities, you’ll increase your chances of success over time.

Why is converting American odds to implied probability important for calculating expected value in sports betting?

Converting American odds into implied probability is a handy way to gauge the likelihood of an event based on the odds provided. This percentage can then help you calculate the expected value (EV) of a bet, which essentially measures how profitable that bet could be over time.

Here’s how it works: For positive odds like +200, use the formula . For negative odds such as -150, the formula changes to . Once you’ve figured out the implied probability, you can compare it to your own assessment of the event’s chances. If your estimated probability indicates a better chance of winning than what the odds suggest, the bet might qualify as a +EV bet. This method allows you to make more informed and data-backed betting decisions.