Poisson Soccer Calculator
Turn expected goals into 1X2, over/under, BTTS, and scoreline odds.
| Most likely scores | Chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 - 1 | 11.8% | +745 |
| 1 - 0 | 10.8% | +830 |
| 2 - 1 | 9.5% | +957 |
| 2 - 0 | 8.6% | +1062 |
| 0 - 1 | 7.4% | +1253 |
| 0 - 0 | 6.7% | +1388 |
The model treats each team's goals as independent Poisson draws around your expected-goals inputs. It is the standard starting point for soccer pricing, but it ignores correlation and game state, so treat the numbers as a baseline, not gospel.
The Poisson model is the standard starting point for soccer pricing. Enter each team's expected goals and the calculator returns the chance of a home win, draw, or away win, plus over/under, both-teams-to-score, and the most likely scorelines with fair odds.
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How the Poisson Calculator works
What the Poisson model does
It treats each team's goal count as a Poisson draw around its expected goals, then combines the two into a full grid of scoreline probabilities. Summing that grid gives the match odds (1X2), the over/under at any line, both-teams-to-score, and the correct-score market. It is the model most soccer prices are built on.
Where to get expected goals
Expected goals (xG) is a team's average goals against a given opponent, and you can start from season xG-for and xG-against, adjusted for home advantage and opponent strength. The two inputs are the whole model, so the quality of your price is only as good as the two numbers you feed it.
Reading the output
The percentages are true probabilities that sum to 100% within each market, and the fair odds are those probabilities expressed as American prices with no vig. Compare them against the market: where your fair price is better than the offered price, you have found a potential edge, assuming your expected-goals inputs are right.
What the model ignores
Poisson assumes the two teams' goals are independent and that scoring rate is constant through the match. Real games have correlation, red cards, and game-state effects the model does not see, so treat the output as a disciplined baseline to refine, not a finished price. For spread-scoring sports like football and basketball, use the win-probability tool instead.
Frequently asked questions
What is a Poisson calculator used for in betting?+
It converts each team's expected goals into scoreline probabilities, then into 1X2, over/under, both-teams-to-score, and correct-score odds. It is the standard model for pricing soccer and other low-scoring sports.
How do I get the expected goals inputs?+
Start from each team's season xG-for and the opponent's xG-against, adjusted for home advantage. The two expected-goals numbers are the only inputs the model needs.
Why not use a point spread for soccer?+
Soccer is low-scoring and its margins are lumpy, so the normal approximation behind spread-to-win-probability tools breaks down. A Poisson scoreline model fits soccer far better.
Is this Poisson calculator free?+
Yes, free and no signup. It returns match odds, totals, both-teams-to-score, and correct-score probabilities with fair prices from your two expected-goals inputs.