NFL 2026 Offseason: Updated Super Bowl LXI Odds After Opening Days of Free Agency

Los Angeles Rams GM Les Snead knows what it takes to make a splash in the offseason. He's done this before. He traded a first-rounder for Jalen Ramsey, another for Matthew Stafford, and another for Von Miller. Every time, critics screamed. Every time, the Lombardi Trophy conversation stayed alive.

So, when the Kansas City Chiefs front office called back and accepted the 29th pick, a fifth, a sixth, and a 2027 third for Trent McDuffie, Snead didn't flinch. He already knows what he's paying to extend McDuffie: four years, $124 million—highest-paid corner in NFL history. He signs it without blinking.

This is what all-in looks like, and the oddsmakers know it. One can bet on sports at Bovada, and the betting giant immediately installed the Rams as the new +700 Super Bowl LXI favorites, down from the +800 they were just days prior. But what has happened to the rest of the Lombardi frontrunners after a wild couple of days in the free agency market? Let's take a look.

Los Angeles Rams: Was +800 > Now +700

The NFC Championship loss still burns. Stafford threw for 374 yards and three touchdowns in Seattle—put up a masterpiece—and it wasn't enough because the secondary got shredded. You can't win championships when corners get toasted on third down in the fourth quarter. Snead's after-action review was brutally short: fix the back end, or 2026 becomes another year of offensive brilliance wasted.

His response? Trade away the 29th pick—the last of the four firsts he's surrendered in five drafts—and restructure the entire secondary around a 25-year-old All-Pro who plays with an old safety's instincts and a cornerback's length. McDuffie's $124M extension broke the market, but Snead still has the 13th pick (courtesy of Atlanta's 2025 draft misjudgment) to attack other needs. Kamren Curl comes back on three years, $36M; Jaylen Watson locks down the CB2 role; Tyler Higbee returns to anchor 13-personnel packages that opposing linebackers cannot handle in coverage. They addressed the secondary. They retained weapons. They stayed aggressive.

The remaining hole is at TE depth—Higbee is 31, and Sean McVay wants that 13-personnel versatility insured. Oregon's Kenyon Sadiq at No. 13 would be a luxury, although the Ravens covet him too. Free agent Chigoziem Okonkwo is the backup plan. Even so, this is the NFC's most complete roster, and the Rams are rightfully installed as the Lombardi favorites.

Seattle Seahawks: Was +750 > Now +800

Kenneth Walker's gone—three years, $43M, off to Kansas City to resurrect Patrick Mahomes' offense. Coby Bryant left for Chicago. Boye Mafe didn't come back, instead opting to resurrect the worst defence in the league in Cincinnati. The players who defined a championship run are scattered, and John Schneider has to rebuild the identity that just hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.

After being the +750 favorites, the early business has seen the Seahawks shuffled out to +800. Schneider hasn't panicked.

Rashid Shaheed—whose return touchdowns felt like playoff defibrillators all season—got locked up at three years, $51M before another team could blink. Josh Jobe signed on for three years and $24M; at that price against his coverage numbers, Schneider essentially shoplifted a starting corner. OT Josh Jones returns for continuity up front. The core is preserved. The difference-maker is gone.

Which is why the draft matters more for Seattle than any other contender. Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love ran for 1,372 yards and 18 touchdowns last season—a legitimate three-down back with the burst to inherit Walker's role and the vision to run Pete Carroll's old gap schemes under Macdonald's modern defense-first philosophy. There is a zero percent chance that he's still available at number 32, meaning that the front office will have to pay heavily to trade up and get their man if they are serious about repeating as champs.

Buffalo Bills: Was +1200 > Now +1000

Josh Allen is too good for this to keep happening. The Bills' playoff exits aren't quarterback problems—they're roster problems, and Brandon Beane finally addressed the two that mattered most: a pass rush ranked 27th in win rate and a receiver room that collapsed without a legitimate second weapon opposite their best players.

DJ Moore lands via trade from Chicago—a mid-round pick swap that Beane likely replays in his head as the steal of the offseason. Moore gives Allen what he's been missing: a crisp route-runner who wins at all three levels and doesn't disappear in AFC playoff atmospheres. Bradley Chubb joins on three years, $43.5M with $29M guaranteed—8.5 sacks last year, elite third-down pass rush win rate, the kind of disruptive presence Jim Leonhard's new defense was designed to deploy. Add Dee Alford in the secondary and Kyle Allen for QB depth, and Buffalo's roster is measurably better than the one that flamed out last January.

The remaining need is red zone—Vanderbilt TE Eli Stowers in the draft gives Allen a mismatch weapon in the end zone he's never really had. Emmanuel Ogbah could add EDGE rotation depth without breaking the bank. The Bills have already been slashed from +1200 to +1000, and that may shrink further if the Bills land their top draft targets.