Betting the AFC Championship Game: Patriots vs. Broncos
- Greg Kajewski
- 12 hours ago
- 9 min read
The AFC Championship Game on Sunday, January 25, 2026, features the New England Patriots (16-3) and Denver Broncos (15-3) battling for a spot in Super Bowl 60. Here’s what you need to know:
Game Details: Kickoff is at 3:00 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. Watch on CBS or stream on Paramount+ and FuboTV.
Key Storyline: Denver’s rookie QB Bo Nix is out with an ankle injury, leaving backup Jarrett Stidham - who hasn’t thrown a pass in 749 days - to face New England’s MVP finalist QB Drake Maye.
Stats:
New England: 8-0 on the road this season, forced 9 turnovers in the playoffs.
Denver: Won 14 of their last 15 home games, but their starting QB absence shifted betting odds significantly.
Betting Odds: Patriots are now 5.5-point favorites, with a moneyline of -245 to -258. Denver’s odds are +198 to +210.
This matchup pits Denver’s strong pass rush (league-high 68 sacks) against New England’s efficient passing attack. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ defense looks to capitalize on Stidham’s inexperience. Expect a low-scoring, hard-fought game.
Game Preview: Patriots vs. Broncos
Season Records and Past Matchups
Heading into the AFC Championship Game, both teams boast identical 14–3 records, but their journeys to this point couldn't be more different. The Patriots, as the No. 2 seed, secured their spot with postseason victories over the Chargers (16–3) and Texans (28–16). Meanwhile, the top-seeded Broncos had a first-round bye before narrowly defeating the Bills 33–30 in an overtime thriller.
When it comes to the history between these two teams, Denver holds the upper hand. The Broncos lead the all-time series 31–24 and have dominated in playoff meetings, winning four out of five matchups. Their dominance extends to home games, where they hold a 9–1 record against the Patriots, including postseason contests. In fact, New England has never won a playoff game at Mile High Stadium. That said, the Patriots have been perfect on the road this season, going 8–0.
Injury Report and Player Status
One of the biggest storylines heading into Sunday is the absence of Broncos starting quarterback Bo Nix. After fracturing his right ankle in the Divisional Round, Nix underwent surgery and is out for the remainder of the postseason. This means backup Jarrett Stidham will step into the spotlight. Stidham hasn’t started a game in over two years - 745 days to be exact - but now has a chance to prove himself on the biggest stage.
"I feel like I have a (No.) 2 (quarterback) that's capable of starting for a handful of, a number of teams. I know he feels the same way. So watch out. Just watch."Sean Payton, Head Coach, Denver Broncos
On the other side, the Patriots are in good shape health-wise. Their defense has gotten a boost with the return of defensive lineman Milton Williams, who has shored up their run defense. Quarterback Drake Maye, an MVP candidate, remains the key to their offense. During the regular season, Maye completed an impressive 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns. He’s also undefeated in the playoffs, sitting at 2–0.
Key Matchups to Watch
While season records and injuries set the stage, the outcome of this game will hinge on key on-field matchups. One of the most critical battles will be between New England’s offensive line and Denver’s ferocious pass rush. The Broncos led the league with 68 sacks in the regular season - 11 more than any other team - thanks in large part to linebacker Nik Bonitto, who racked up 14 sacks. Denver also allowed the fewest yards per play at just 4.46, making life difficult for opposing offenses. This presents a major challenge for a Patriots offense that thrives on downfield passing, connecting on nearly 20% of such attempts.
On the flip side, Denver’s quarterback situation may struggle against a Patriots defense that’s been on fire. Over their last four games, New England hasn’t allowed more than 16 points. In their two playoff wins, they forced nine turnovers, including five in their victory over Houston. Adding to Denver’s concerns, Stidham’s familiarity with the Patriots could backfire, as offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels knows how to exploit his weaknesses. These matchups - Denver’s pass rush against New England’s offensive line and Stidham versus the Patriots’ defense - will likely decide who punches their ticket to Super Bowl 60.
Both teams enter this game in top form. The Patriots have won 15 of their last 16 games, while the Broncos, after a shaky 1–2 start, have only dropped one game since. With two of the league’s best defenses squaring off, fans can expect a hard-fought, low-scoring battle.
Betting Odds and Lines
Current Betting Lines
Bo Nix's season-ending ankle injury has caused a major shake-up in the betting landscape. The Patriots' spread shifted dramatically, moving from 4.5 to -5.5. This makes them the heaviest road favorites in a conference championship game since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970. Oddsmakers estimate Nix's absence has impacted the spread by five to seven points. Before this setback, Denver had been favored by 1.5 points in the lookahead line.
The moneyline now ranges from -245 to -258 for New England, while Denver's odds sit between +198 and +210. Meanwhile, the Broncos' Super Bowl odds plummeted from +370 to +1100 following the injury. The total points line has also seen an uptick, rising from 40.5 to between 41.5 and 42.5, with 72% of the money wagered favoring the Over.
"We're looking forward to seeing how these two defensive-minded teams match up in the AFC championship and evaluating just how big of an impact Bo Nix had on this Broncos team throughout the year."Joey Feazel, Head of Football, Caesars Sportsbook
Betting Trends and Patterns
The shifting odds reflect broader betting trends that highlight public sentiment. Bettors are heavily backing the Patriots, with 94% of the point spread handle and 90% of the moneyline handle going New England's way. The Patriots come into the game with a strong 16-3 record, have gone 7-1 against the spread as 5.5+ point favorites, and boast an unblemished 8-0 record on the road.
Denver, however, has its own strengths to lean on. The Broncos have won 14 of their last 15 home games at Mile High, showcasing a formidable home-field advantage. Still, history may not be on their side - quarterbacks making their playoff debut, like Jarrett Stidham, have struggled, going 29-47 (38%) against the spread since 2003.
Recent scoring trends also provide some food for thought. The Over has hit in seven of the Patriots' last 10 games and in five of their last six matchups against top-10 scoring defenses. Despite heavy public betting on the Over, it's worth noting both teams exceeded the 41.5-point total in their respective Divisional Round games.
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Join the BettorEdge Community
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Betting Strategies for Patriots vs. Broncos
Recommended Bets for This Game
The stakes are sky-high with the AFC Championship on the line, and finding the right bets can make all the difference. Looking at the numbers, Patriots at -5.5 stands out as a solid choice. New England's seasoned passing game gives them an edge, especially against Denver's quarterback making his playoff debut. Historically, quarterbacks in their first playoff appearance have only covered the spread 38% of the time since 2003.
On the flip side, if you’re leaning toward a contrarian approach, Denver +5.5 offers solid potential. Home underdogs in AFC Championship Games have a track record of performing well against the spread, which could counterbalance the overwhelming 94% of public bets favoring New England.
The Under 40.5 (or 41.5) is another intriguing option. This total has hit in 8 of New England’s last 11 games when the line reached 40.5 or higher. For those exploring prop bets, consider Jarrett Stidham Over 0.5 Interceptions, priced between -176 and -191. This bet aligns with New England's tendency to force turnovers, making it a calculated play.
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New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos | AFC Championship Preview and Best Bets!
FAQs
How will Bo Nix’s injury affect the Broncos’ chances in the AFC Championship against the Patriots?
Bo Nix’s ankle injury has dealt a heavy blow to the Broncos, drastically reducing their chances of overcoming the Patriots in the AFC Championship. After undergoing surgery, Nix is out for the rest of the playoffs, leaving Denver to lean on a backup quarterback with little postseason experience.
This development has already impacted the betting odds, with the Patriots now favored by 4.5 points as road favorites - and that margin could grow. Without their starting quarterback, Denver’s offense loses its rhythm, forcing their defense to shoulder even more responsibility in trying to slow down New England’s experienced and well-balanced attack. It’s shaping up to be a tough road ahead for the Broncos to pull off a win.
What are the key matchups to watch in the Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship game?
The AFC Championship between the Patriots and Broncos is shaping up to be an exciting battle, with several crucial matchups likely to determine who comes out on top. One of the biggest storylines will be Jarrett Stidham, filling in as Denver's quarterback, going up against the Patriots' secondary. Stidham’s mobility and knack for extending plays will challenge New England’s defense, which will focus on pressuring him into making errors.
Another key factor will be the showdown between the Broncos’ defensive front and the Patriots’ ground game. For New England, success on the ground will depend on their offensive line and running backs finding ways to counter Denver’s tough defensive line. Controlling the clock through the run game could have a major impact on the outcome.
Keep an eye on the Patriots’ front seven as well, as their ability to pressure Stidham could disrupt Denver’s offensive rhythm. Forcing turnovers and creating chaos at the line of scrimmage might just give New England the edge in this high-stakes matchup. These battles will likely define which team earns a trip to the Super Bowl.
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