Denver Broncos Betting Outlook 2025

Greg Kajewski
3 days ago
4 min read

Updated: 1 day ago

The Denver Broncos are entering the 2025 NFL season with renewed expectations and heightened scrutiny. After a surprising 2024 campaign that exceeded league-wide predictions, this team has become one of the most intriguing betting options. Whether you're a seasoned sharp or a casual bettor, understanding the nuances of the Broncos’ roster, schedule, and betting trends will help you make more informed decisions this season.

Here, we dive into the key elements of the Denver Broncos’ betting outlook, exploring their strengths, weaknesses, and market positioning. This analysis is based on insights from Lefty of The Betting Network, whose comprehensive breakdown sheds light on the team's prospects and potential value for the upcoming season.

A Look Back at the 2024 Season

The Broncos made significant strides in 2024, far surpassing expectations set during the post-Russell Wilson rebuild. With a win total set at 5.5 before the season, Denver defied the odds to finish with 10 wins and secure a playoff berth.

Several factors contributed to their success:

Elite Defense: The Broncos boasted the league’s top-ranked defense based on Expected Points Added (EPA), particularly excelling in pass coverage.
Quarterback Stability: They found their future in quarterback Bo Nix, who delivered an efficient rookie campaign under the guidance of head coach Sean Payton.
Key Breaks: Denver avoided major injuries and benefited from favorable matchups, facing backup quarterbacks in 30% of their total snaps (the seventh most in the league).

However, some key stats reveal areas of caution. For instance, while Denver finished 6–2 in home games and thrived against weaker opponents, they struggled against playoff-caliber teams, going just 1–6 straight up and 2–5 against the spread (ATS) in such matchups.

The 2025 Season: New Challenges Ahead

Strength of Schedule

The Broncos are set to face one of the league’s toughest schedules in 2025, particularly at the quarterback position. They will square off against nine of the NFL’s top 10 quarterbacks, a stark contrast to their relatively soft defensive schedule in 2024. Denver’s ability to replicate their defensive dominance will be tested as they line up against more skilled offenses.

Roster Improvements

Despite their defensive dominance last season, the Broncos have retooled their roster to stay competitive:

Defensive Upgrades: Denver added key pieces, including slot cornerback Jade Baron in the draft and safety Talanoa Hufanga from the 49ers. When healthy, Hufanga is regarded as a top-five safety in the league.
Offensive Adjustments: On the offensive side, the Broncos addressed their weakest area by signing veteran tight end Evan Engram to bolster a position group that lacked production last year. However, questions remain about the depth and versatility of their skill positions, particularly in the running back room.

Key Betting Factors

Home Field Advantage: Denver’s home field, with its unique altitude and early-season heat, continues to be one of the most challenging venues for visiting teams. The Broncos are 7–2–1 ATS in their past 10 Week 1 home games.
Defensive Regression?: While the defense was exceptional in 2024, replicating that success will depend on their ability to adapt against elite quarterbacks. Additionally, defensive injuries could expose vulnerabilities.
Sophomore Slump Risk: Quarterback Bo Nix enters his second season with higher expectations but will face defenses that now have more film on his tendencies. Lefty suggests that Nix’s success in 2024 may have been aided in part by opposing defenses’ lack of preparation for him as a rookie.

Breaking Down the Win Total: Nine Wins or the Under?

Oddsmakers have set Denver’s win total at 9.5 games for the 2025 season, reflecting their emergence as a legitimate playoff contender. However, Lefty projects a slight lean toward the under, factoring in the tougher schedule and potential sophomore struggles for Nix.

While Denver’s defense could still anchor the team, their success will hinge on whether the offense can step up in high-leverage situations. Bettors should weigh these dynamics carefully when evaluating futures markets.

Week 1 Betting Opportunity

For those eager to get involved early, Denver’s Week 1 matchup against a rookie quarterback on the road presents an appealing betting opportunity. Historically, Denver has dominated early-season home games, particularly against inexperienced signal-callers. This could be a strong spot for a bet on Denver to cover the spread.

Key Takeaways

Elite Defense Faces Stiff Tests: Denver’s top-ranked defense will face a much tougher slate of quarterbacks this season, which could reveal weaknesses.
Sophomore Season for Bo Nix: Expectations are high for Nix, but bettors should remain cautious about the risk of a sophomore slump.
Home Field Edge: The Broncos’ home field remains a significant advantage, particularly early in the season.
Tougher Schedule: With nine games against top-tier quarterbacks, Denver’s 2025 schedule is significantly more challenging than last year’s.
Win Total Projection: Oddsmakers’ line of 9.5 wins feels appropriately priced, with a slight lean toward the under.
Week 1 Value: Denver’s Week 1 home opener against a rookie quarterback may be one of their strongest betting opportunities of the season.

Conclusion

The Denver Broncos enter the 2025 NFL season with momentum and heightened expectations, but bettors should approach with measured optimism. While their elite defense and strategic roster upgrades give them the tools to compete, a tougher schedule and potential regression in key areas pose challenges.

Whether you're betting on individual games, futures markets, or player props, understanding the broader context of Denver’s situation will help you find value. The team’s mix of strengths and uncertainties makes them a fascinating betting case study for the upcoming season.

Source: "2025 NFL Team Preview | Denver @broncos" - Live Dog Lefty, YouTube, Aug 2, 2025 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDAo1kG3QWM