The Expected Value of Each Super Bowl Square
- Greg Kajewski
- 12 hours ago
- 10 min read
Super Bowl squares aren’t just about luck - understanding scoring patterns can help you pick squares with the best chances of winning. NFL scores often end in digits like 0, 3, 7, and 4, making squares with these numbers statistically better. Here’s what you need to know:
Top Squares: 0-0, 0-7, 7-0, 0-3, and 3-0 consistently rank highest due to common score combinations like 10, 13, 17, and 20.
Worst Squares: Avoid squares with 2, 5, 8, or 9. For example, 2-2 has a win probability of less than 0.1%.
Quarterly Payouts: Squares like 0-0 perform best early (21.43% first-quarter hit rate) but lose value later. In contrast, 0-7 and 0-3 remain strong throughout.
Expected Value (EV): High-EV squares like 0-7 ($25.56 in $100 payout pools) outperform low-EV options like 2-2 (-95.19%).
Focus on squares with 0, 3, 7, or 4 for better odds, especially in pools with payouts after each quarter. Avoid low-probability squares unless playing niche formats like "Every Score Pays."
1. 0-7 Square
Historical Score Frequencies
The 0-7 square (and its reverse, 7-0) stands out as the most frequent final score combination in NFL history, showing up in 3.30% of games between 2015 and 2024. This high occurrence is tied to how NFL scoring often results in totals ending in 0 or 7.
Looking closer at the numbers, the digit 0 appears in 27.1% of all quarter scores in Super Bowl history. For winning teams, 7 is the most common digit at 15.5%, while for losing teams, 0 leads at 20.5%. These patterns underline why the 0-7 pairing aligns so well with typical NFL score margins. This historical consistency highlights the square's strong performance across all quarters.
Quarter-by-Quarter EV
The 0-7 square’s value isn’t limited to a specific part of the game - it holds its own from start to finish. Unlike the 0-0 square, which dominates early but loses relevance later, the 0-7 square maintains a high expected value (EV) throughout all four quarters. Combinations involving 0, 3, and 7 account for over 75% of first-quarter outcomes and about 72% by the third quarter.
While the frequency of the digit 0 drops as the game progresses - from 46.6% in the first quarter to 13.6% by the fourth - the 0-7 pairing remains a strong contender throughout. This reliability makes it a great pick in pools that offer payouts after each quarter, not just for the final score.
Overall EV
In a pool with $100 payouts per quarter, the 0-7 square delivers an overall expected value of $25.56 across all four quarters ($6.39 per quarter × 4). This makes it the second-highest EV square, just behind the 0-0 square, which leads at $30.92.
Mike Beuoy, the mind behind inpredictable.com, highlights the square's dependability:
"Regardless of the payout scheme, 0-7 and 0-3 will be valuable squares".
When examining weighted EV, the 0-7 square shows an expected value of -4.04%, far outperforming low-probability squares like 2-2, which sits at -95.19%. This steady performance cements the 0-7 square as a key pick in any strategy focused on maximizing EV.
2. 0-3 Square
Historical Score Frequencies
The 0-3 (or 3-0) square is a strong contender, ranking among the top three squares with a 2.70% probability of hitting. This is largely due to common field goal-driven scores like 10, 13, 20, 23, and 30.
In low-scoring games (when total points fall below 47.5), its frequency jumps to 5.68%, making it the most likely winning square in such scenarios. The digit 0 shows up in 25.2% of low-scoring games, while 3 appears in 13.3% of all scores. If you’re anticipating a defensive, field-goal-dominated Super Bowl, the 0-3 square offers a statistical edge. Its consistent frequency makes it a reliable pick for evaluating performance throughout the game.
Quarter-by-Quarter EV
Unlike some squares that shine early but lose value later, the 0-3 square holds steady across all quarters. Digits like 0, 3, and 7 dominate scoring outcomes, with occurrence rates ranging from 75% to 72% through the first three quarters. By the fourth quarter, as scoring patterns diversify, these digits still account for about 21% of wins. This stability makes the 0-3 square a strong choice, especially in pools that offer payouts after each quarter.
Overall EV
Factoring in its consistent quarterly performance, the 0-3 square delivers an overall EV of $20.52 for pools with $100 payouts per quarter ($5.13 per quarter × 4). This translates to a –4.55% return, which is far better than low-performing options like the 2-2 square, which sits at –95.19%.
Mike Beuoy from inpredictable.com sums it up perfectly:
"In general, regardless of the payout scheme, 0-7 and 0-3 will be valuable squares".
3. 7-0 Square
Historical Score Frequencies
The 7-0 square has earned a reputation as one of the most sought-after combinations in Super Bowl squares, with a hit rate of 3.30% between 2015 and 2024. Data reveals that the digit 7 appears in 15.5% of winning scores, while 0 shows up in 20.5% of losing scores, resulting in a combined occurrence range of 3.30–3.99%. Common final scores like 17, 20, and 24 further highlight its statistical advantage. With a strong historical track record, let’s dive into its quarter-by-quarter expected value (EV).
Quarter-by-Quarter EV
Although the 0-0 square dominates early in the game - showing up in 21.43% of first-quarter scores since 2000 - the 7-0 square gains value as the game progresses. The digit 0, which appears in 46.6% of first-quarter scores, becomes less frequent by the fourth quarter, dropping to 13.6%. This shift benefits the 7-0 square as scoring patterns stabilize with touchdowns and field goals becoming more common.
On average, the 7-0 square delivers an EV of about $6.04 per quarter.
Overall EV
When stretched across all four quarters, the 7-0 square has an EV of approximately $24.16 in pools with a $100 payout structure. In professional betting markets, this equates to an EV of –5.79%, a far better outcome compared to low-probability combinations like the 2-2 square, which carries an EV as low as –95.19%.
Suitability for Alternative Payouts
The 7-0 square stands out in winner-take-all or final score–only payout setups, offering a 3.7% chance of hitting - a top-tier option in these scenarios. In games with fewer total points (under 47.5), the losing team’s score ends in "0" 25.2% of the time, making this square especially appealing for low-scoring matchups. Its reliability across different scoring conditions solidifies its place as a strong choice in both winner-take-all and final-score pools.
"In general, regardless of the payout scheme, 0-7 and 0-3 will be valuable squares".
4. 3-0 Square
Historical Score Frequencies
The 3-0 square consistently ranks among the top three combinations in Super Bowl squares pools, thanks to the frequent appearance of field goals and scores ending in zero. From 2015 to 2024, this square appeared in 2.70% of final scores. Looking at a broader dataset of 30 seasons and 8,162 games, it showed up in 3.97% of games. Breaking it down further, the digit 3 appears in about 13.3% of all NFL scores, while 0 is even more common, showing up in 20.5% of losing team final scores.
Quarter-by-Quarter EV
Quarter-by-quarter trends highlight how the 3-0 square performs at different stages of the game. It shines early, appearing in 16.6% of first-quarter scores - second only to the 0-7/7-0 square. However, its frequency decreases as the game progresses, dropping to 9.8% in the second quarter, 7.1% in the third, and 5.7% in the fourth. The digit 0 plays a big role early on, featuring in 46.6% of first-quarter scores but falling to just 13.6% by the fourth quarter. These scoring patterns make the 3-0 square a consistent contender throughout the game, especially in formats with payouts tied to different quarters.
Overall EV
The 3-0 square's strong early-game performance contributes to its overall expected value (EV), which stands at –4.55%. This makes it the second-best square out of all 100 options. It far outperforms low-probability combinations like the 2-2 square, which has an EV as low as –95.19%. In games with fewer total points - below 47.5 - the 0-3/3-0 outcome becomes even more common, increasing to a frequency of 5.68%. This makes the square particularly appealing in matchups where defensive play is likely to dominate.
Suitability for Alternative Payouts
The 3-0 square thrives in "Every Score Pays" formats, where payouts are distributed with each score change. It can deliver quick returns if the first score happens to be a field goal. In winner-take-all or final-score-only pools, its 2.70% win probability keeps it among the top picks. For first-quarter-only payouts, its 16.6% hit rate makes it a standout choice, second only to the 0-7/7-0 combination.
5. 3-7 Square
Historical Score Frequencies
The 3-7 square ranks as the sixth-best combination, with a 1.99% win probability between 2015 and 2024. This pairing combines digits that show up in 15.6% (7) and 13.3% (3) of scores. These scoring patterns explain its consistent performance. Historical data backs this up: in a review of over 18,000 scores since 1978, the most frequent final scores include 17 (1,412 instances), 27 (931 instances), 13 (952 instances), and 23 (754 instances) - all ending in 3 or 7. When prime squares like 0-7, 0-3, or 4-7 are taken, the 3-7 square stands out as a strong statistical alternative.
Quarter-by-Quarter EV
While historically reliable, the 3-7 square's game-time value (or expected value, EV) shifts depending on the quarter. Early in the game, its EV is lower since low-scoring outcomes dominate about 18–20% of first quarters. Notably, the digit 0 appears in nearly half (46.6%) of first-quarter scores, reducing the likelihood of non-zero combinations.
As the game progresses, the 3-7 square gains traction. Common scorelines like 13-7, 17-13, or 27-17 emerge due to the NFL's scoring system, which often revolves around increments of 3 and 7. This makes the square increasingly valuable in later quarters, especially in formats that reward ongoing scoring activity.
Suitability for Alternative Payouts
The 3-7 square thrives in alternative payout structures, such as "Every Score Pays" pools. In these formats, where a percentage (e.g., 5%) is awarded with each score change, the square benefits from frequent transitions like 7-3 to 13-7. Its ability to align with common scoring milestones throughout the game - not just at the final score - makes it a strong contender in dynamic payout setups.
Exploring the Math Behind Super Bowl Squares Pools | Sports Illustrated
Pros and Cons
Super Bowl squares can vary greatly in value, and understanding the probabilities behind each square can help you make smarter picks. For example, the 0-0 square is a powerhouse early in the game, with a first-quarter hit rate ranging from 13.46% to 21.43%. However, its value plummets as the game progresses and teams start scoring. On the other hand, the 7-0 and 0-7 squares are consistent performers throughout the game. They’re especially valuable for final score pools, as they represent the most frequent end-game combinations at around 3.30%. These squares are often considered top-tier choices in pools that emphasize the final score.
The 3-0 and 0-3 squares are another solid pick, offering steady performance across all quarters. With a final score frequency of 2.70% and an early-game hit rate of 3-5%, these squares benefit from field goals and maintain their value from start to finish. Meanwhile, the 4-7 and 7-4 squares sit in the mid-value range, with a frequency of 2.83%. They’re a dependable backup option when the premium squares are already taken.
On the flip side, squares involving 2, 5, 8, and 9 are long shots. For instance, the 2-2 square appears in less than 0.1% of games, while 5-5 shows up only 0.13% of the time. Betting markets reflect this low probability: the 2-2 square has an expected value of -95.19%, meaning you’d lose almost your entire stake on average.
Square | Final Score Frequency | 1st Quarter Hit Rate | Best Use Case |
0-0 | 2.23% | 13.46%-21.43% | Early payout pools |
0-7 / 7-0 | 3.30% | ~2-4% | Final score emphasis |
0-3 / 3-0 | 2.70% | ~3-5% | All-quarter consistency |
4-7 / 7-4 | 2.83% | Low | Mid-tier value |
2-2 | 0.09% | <0.1% | Avoid entirely |
Low-value squares only become appealing in special formats like "Every Score Pays" pools. In these setups, payouts happen after every score change - so even a safety that makes the score 2-0 could earn you a payout. Outside of these niche formats, it’s best to stick with squares featuring 0, 3, and 7, as they align with the scoring patterns typical in NFL games.
Conclusion
Focus on squares with 0, 7, 3, and 4. These numbers dominate NFL scoring because they align with common point totals: touchdowns with extra points (7), field goals (3), and round numbers like 10, 20, or 30. The 0-7 and 7-0 squares should be your top picks, followed by 4-7/7-4 at 2.83% and 0-3/3-0 at 2.70% probability.
In quarterly payout pools, the 0-0 square is a standout early on, winning 21.43% of first quarters. However, its value drops significantly in final-score pools. For "Every Score Pays" formats, 0-0 is a guaranteed winner at kickoff. While high-frequency squares offer great expected value, others fall far short.
Stay away from squares featuring 2, 5, 8, and 9. For example, the 2-2 square hits less than 0.1% of the time, and combinations like 5-5 or 8-8 rely on rare scoring events like safeties, missed kicks, or failed conversions.
Tailor your strategy to the game's scoring potential. In high-scoring games, digit 1 becomes more valuable (appearing 17.9% of the time). In contrast, low-scoring games increase the likelihood of zeros for the losing team (25.2%). These insights can help shape a winning approach.
Focus on probability, not price. Squares with digits like 2 or 5 might seem like a bargain, but their chances of winning are slim. Invest in squares that reflect actual NFL scoring patterns to boost your chances of taking home a payout.
FAQs
Why are numbers like 0, 3, 7, and 4 better choices in Super Bowl square pools?
Numbers like 0, 3, 7, and 4 tend to be stronger picks in Super Bowl square pools because they match up with typical NFL scoring patterns. Points in football - such as field goals (3 points), touchdowns with extra points (7 points), and scores rounded to multiples of 10 (ending in 0) - naturally lead to these digits appearing often as the last numbers in scores.
Think about it: games with scores like 10–7, 14–3, or 27–20 commonly feature these numbers. This makes squares involving 0, 3, 7, and 4 more likely to hit a payout compared to less frequent digits like 2, 5, 8, or 9. Picking the right numbers can give you a better edge in these pools.
How does a square's expected value (EV) affect my chances of winning in Super Bowl Squares?
The expected value (EV) of a square represents its chances of winning, based on historical NFL scoring patterns. Squares tied to numbers like 0, 3, or 7 tend to have higher EV because these combinations show up frequently in NFL games.
Targeting high-EV squares can improve your odds of hitting a payout during the game. If you're participating in an auction-style pool, it's smart to bid carefully. Spending more on high-EV squares might feel costly at first, but these squares usually offer better potential returns compared to cheaper, low-value options.
Why are the 0-7 and 0-3 squares considered some of the best picks in Super Bowl Squares?
Scores ending in 0, 3, and 7 hold a special place in NFL games because of how points are scored - field goals are worth 3 points, and touchdowns with extra points add up to 7. These patterns make the 0-7 and 0-3 squares highly sought after, as they tend to appear more frequently throughout a game, especially at key moments like the end of quarters or the final score.
In auction-style pools, these squares often command higher bids. Their statistical advantage means they provide a better chance of winning, not just for the final score but across multiple quarters of the game.
