MLB Player Prop Betting: How to Pick Winners for Hits, HRs, and More

Greg Kajewski
12 hours ago
13 min read

MLB player prop betting focuses on individual player performances rather than team outcomes. Instead of betting on who wins, you can wager on specific stats like hits, home runs (HRs), strikeouts, or total bases. Here’s how to get started:

Popular Prop Types: Hits (low risk), Total Bases (moderate risk), Home Runs (high risk).
Key Metrics: Batting average for hits, slugging percentage for total bases, and HR stats for home runs.
Tools & Data: Platforms like BettorEdge offer analytics, peer-to-peer betting without a house edge, and tracking tools to refine strategies.
Betting Tips:
- Research matchups, player stats, and conditions (pitcher, ballpark size, weather).
- Use advanced analytics like exit velocity and launch angle for deeper insights.
- Manage your bankroll carefully - stick to 1-2% of your total per bet.
- Timing matters: Bet early for favorable odds or late to react to breaking news.

With the right research and tools, you can improve your chances of success in MLB prop betting.

How to Make Money Betting on Home Runs (MLB Player Props Tutorial)

Data and Tools for Better Prop Betting

Success in MLB prop betting comes down to combining data analysis with the right tools.

MLB Player Statistics to Track

To make smarter prop bets, you need to focus on the stats that truly matter for each type of wager. For example, batting average (AVG) is a key metric for hits props since it shows how often a player gets a hit during their at-bats. As of July 7, 2025, Aaron Judge leads the league with a .360 batting average, making him an excellent option for hits-related bets.

When it comes to home run props, tracking a player's home run totals is essential. Cal Raleigh, with 35 home runs so far, stands out as a prime candidate for home run betting. Additionally, slugging percentage (SLG) is worth noting because it reflects a player's power by measuring total bases per at-bat. Judge is also dominant here, boasting a .734 slugging percentage.

For total bases props, understanding how scoring works is crucial. A single counts as 1 base, a double as 2, a triple as 3, and a home run as 4. For instance, if a player goes 2-for-4 with two doubles, they rack up 4 total bases - enough to cover a 2.5 total bases prop bet.

Statistic	Description	Relevance to Prop Bets
Batting Average (AVG)	Hits per at-bat	Indicates likelihood of getting a hit
On-Base Percentage (OBP)	Frequency of reaching base	Highlights ability to get on base and score
Slugging Percentage (SLG)	Total bases per at-bat	Reflects power and extra-base hits
On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS)	OBP combined with SLG	Measures overall offensive performance
Home Runs (HR)	Number of home runs hit	Useful for home run props
Total Bases (TB)	Total bases earned from hits	Directly impacts total bases bets

Situational splits can also uncover hidden opportunities. For instance, a player might hit .320 at home but only .250 on the road or perform better against left-handed pitchers than right-handed ones. These splits can help you spot mismatches that the betting market may have overlooked.

Keep in mind that recent performance often outweighs season averages. A player on a hot streak might be worth betting on, even if their overall stats seem average. Conversely, a star player in a slump could be overvalued.

Using Analytics and Models

Advanced analytics can take your player evaluations to the next level. Metrics like exit velocity, launch angle, and spin rate provide insights that traditional stats can't. For example, a hitter with consistently high exit velocity might be poised for a breakout, even if their current batting average is low.

Machine learning models are also making waves in prop betting. These algorithms analyze historical data, matchups, and market odds to predict player performance and uncover value bets. The Houston Astros famously used predictive analytics to identify undervalued players, showing how data-driven strategies can lead to better decision-making.

These models consider various factors, including player health, weather, ballpark dimensions, and pitcher–batter matchups. While no model is perfect, they can help identify situations where the odds don't align with the likely outcome.

Resources like FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Savant are invaluable for diving into advanced stats. These platforms provide the raw data you need to conduct your own analysis or verify insights from predictive models.

BettorEdge Analytics and Tracking Tools

BettorEdge builds on advanced analytics by offering tools that streamline your betting strategy. Its platform includes features for tracking and filtering bets with BetMatch based on specific criteria, such as odds, bet type, and more.

Performance tracking tools break down your betting history, showing your ROI across different bet types, team-specific performance, and results under various game conditions. This helps you pinpoint strengths and weaknesses in your approach.

Performance Metric	Description
Bet Type ROI	Tracks profitability by market (Moneyline, Totals, Props)
Team Analysis	Shows win/loss records for specific teams
Pitcher Performance	Evaluates results from betting on or against certain pitchers
Time-Based Stats	Compares performance in day vs. night games or across seasons

BettorEdge also taps into crowd intelligence with its social feed analytics, which highlight community betting trends. You can see which props are getting the most attention and how successful bettors are navigating the market. The platform's leaderboard tracks top performers, showcasing ROI leaders, win rates, and streaks over 7-day and 30-day periods. Studying these trends can offer valuable insights.

For premium members, BettorEdge unlocks even more features, such as external market comparisons, historical data, and performance charts that visualize your betting patterns over time. These tools go beyond simple win-loss records, giving you a deeper understanding of your betting habits and helping you make smarter decisions.

Step-by-Step Guide to Picking Player Props

Use this guide to sharpen your approach to MLB player props. BettorEdge's analytics can be a valuable tool as you research matchups and refine your betting strategy.

Research Player Matchups and Situations

Successful prop betting starts with thorough research. Begin by diving into the starting pitcher matchup. Key stats like ERA, WHIP, and strikeout rate can tell you a lot about a pitcher's effectiveness. On the offensive side, focus on metrics such as batting average, slugging percentage, and home runs to evaluate a player's potential. Don’t forget to check bullpen stats like ERA, WHIP, and save percentage for a complete picture.

Environmental factors also play a big role. Ballpark dimensions matter - smaller parks often lead to more home runs, while larger ones can suppress them. Weather conditions are another key consideration. Warm temperatures might help the ball travel farther, while cold weather or strong winds can reduce home run chances. For example, a hot day with light winds could favor hitters, while a chilly, windy evening might benefit pitchers.

Umpire tendencies can also influence outcomes. A tighter strike zone may lead to higher scores. Lastly, consider situational performance - how players fare with runners in scoring position or in high-pressure moments can reveal valuable betting angles.

Once you've gathered these insights, remember to manage your wagers wisely to ensure long-term success.

Bankroll Management and Betting Rules

Smart bankroll management is the backbone of any successful betting strategy. Start by setting up a dedicated bankroll strictly for betting - this should be separate from your personal finances. Track every wager and adjust your unit size (typically 1–2% of your bankroll) as it grows or shrinks. For example, with a $1,000 bankroll, a unit size of $10–$20 is a good starting point. Experts often suggest beginning with a bankroll of 30 units.

Avoid the temptation to chase losses. Stick to your predetermined unit size to keep emotions from derailing your strategy. Take advantage of sportsbook bonuses and promotions, but always read the fine print to avoid surprises. Focus on placing bets with clear value instead of trying to win every single wager. Lastly, set limits for yourself and know when to step away. Betting should always be a form of entertainment, not a source of income.

Once your bankroll plan is in place, the timing of your bets becomes the next critical factor.

When to Place Your Bets

Timing can make all the difference in prop betting. Start by placing early bets to capitalize on potential inefficiencies in the lines. Sharp bettors often spot these opportunities before sportsbooks make adjustments. However, keep some funds available for last-minute bets. Late-breaking news - like lineup changes, weather updates, or player injuries - can significantly impact a bet's value.

Stay updated on team announcements, injury reports, and other relevant game-day news. Lineup changes might reveal rest days or shifts in the batting order that could affect a player's performance. Similarly, weather updates closer to game time can help you refine your picks even further.

Comparing Different Prop Bet Types

Understanding the differences between various MLB player prop types can help you spot the best opportunities for specific betting scenarios. Each type caters to different player profiles and game conditions.

Pros and Cons of Each Prop Type

Prop bets come with varying levels of risk and reward. Here's a breakdown of how the most popular MLB player props compare:

Factor	Hits	Total Bases	Home Runs
Volatility	Lower	Moderate	Higher
Payout Potential	Lower	Moderate	Higher
Data Availability	High	High	Moderate
Ideal For	Contact Hitters	Power Hitters	Power Hitters

Hits are the simplest prop bet to understand and wager on. They’re great when you expect a player to make contact but aren’t sure about the type of hit. With lower volatility, they appeal to more cautious bettors who focus on players with consistent batting averages.

Total bases strike a balance between hits and home runs. They are calculated as follows: (walks and stolen bases don’t count). This prop rewards players who rack up extra-base hits, making it ideal for aggressive hitters with high slugging percentages.

Home runs are the riskiest but offer the largest potential payouts. Factors like the ballpark and weather play a significant role here. Some stadiums naturally favor power hitters, while conditions like wind blowing out can help fly balls clear the fence. On the flip side, cold weather can suppress power numbers.

When to Bet Each Prop Type

Timing is everything when it comes to prop bets. Here’s how to decide which type to choose based on the situation:

Go for hits if you’re confident a player will make contact but aren’t expecting much power. This is especially effective for leadoff hitters or contact specialists facing pitchers who allow frequent hits but limit hard contact.
Choose total bases when you think a player will hit for extra bases or has a good chance of hitting a home run. Power hitters in favorable matchups shine here. Focus on players with high slugging percentages or those who consistently hit doubles and home runs. However, avoid players with high walk rates since walks don’t count toward total bases.
Bet on home runs when conditions are just right. Research the ballpark’s dimensions and its historical home run data. Some stadiums are more favorable to hitters, increasing the odds of extra-base hits. Combine this with favorable weather - like warm temperatures or a strong wind blowing out - for the best results.

Keep in mind: Hits include all successful at-bats, while total bases only count extra-base contributions. Total bases are also a key component in calculating slugging percentage, which is determined by dividing a player’s total bases for the season by their at-bats.

BettorEdge takes MLB prop betting beyond the numbers by adding a social and interactive layer. These features work hand in hand with the platform’s analytical tools, creating a more well-rounded approach to betting. You’ll find collective insights, customizable options, and tools to track your performance - all while connecting with a community of bettors.

The social feed is like an open window into the thoughts and strategies of the betting community. Every bet placed on BettorEdge appears in this feed, offering a transparent look at real-time betting activity. This constant stream of data makes it easier to spot emerging trends.

You can follow bettors whose strategies resonate with your approach to MLB props. The feed highlights popular patterns across different types of props, giving you actionable insights. For instance, if you notice several successful bettors consistently targeting "hits" props for contact hitters in favorable matchups, you can incorporate that into your own strategy. Some bettors focus on specific teams or players, and their expertise can provide sharper, more focused insights.

BettorEdge also fosters collaboration. You can tip successful bettors a portion of your winnings when their picks pay off, ask them about their reasoning, or share your own thoughts on game conditions. This kind of interaction helps you learn from others’ successes - and their mistakes - while refining your own betting strategy. By tapping into these real-time insights, you can build a stronger foundation for setting your own odds.

Benefits of Setting Your Own Odds

Using trends from the community as a starting point, BettorEdge lets you take control by setting your own market values. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, BettorEdge’s peer-to-peer system eliminates the house edge, giving you the freedom to create odds based on your own research and analysis.

For example, if you believe Mookie Betts has a 60% chance of getting at least one hit in a game, you can set odds that reflect that probability instead of relying on the inflated prices typically offered by sportsbooks. This approach significantly increases your chances of long-term profitability - 40% of users on betting exchanges turn a profit, compared to just 2% with traditional sportsbooks.

The platform also offers back and lay options, allowing you to manage risk and ensure your odds align with your assessment of likely outcomes. Plus, the sell-back feature adds flexibility. Let’s say you bet on a player to hit a home run but later learn he’s dealing with a minor injury. Instead of sticking with the bet, you can sell it back to the community at a price you set. This kind of flexibility is something you won’t find with traditional sportsbooks.

BettorEdge even lets you test strategies without worrying about fees. You can place free marketplace orders up to $100 per month (or $750 with a Premium plan). After that, only a small 1.5% fee applies, allowing you to build your bankroll without constant deductions.

Following Top Performers on Leaderboards

The leaderboard system on BettorEdge is a treasure trove for identifying top-performing bettors. It tracks success across multiple metrics, including ROI, win percentage, and betting streaks, over both 7-day and 30-day periods. This makes it easy to spot both hot streaks and consistent long-term performers.

For example, the ROI leaderboard highlights bettors who excel at finding value. A bettor with a 15% ROI over 30 days likely has a knack for spotting undervalued MLB props. Meanwhile, win percentage rankings focus on consistency. If someone wins 65% of their MLB prop bets in a month, it’s a strong indicator they understand player matchups and situational factors.

Streak tracking is another useful tool. A bettor on a 12-game winning streak with MLB props might be worth following closely. You can even follow these top performers to see their picks directly in your social feed. Whether you choose to copy their bets, use their picks as inspiration, or go against their selections based on your own research, the choice is yours.

For those seeking specialized insights, performance filtering is a game-changer. Let’s say a bettor boasts a 20% ROI exclusively on baseball total bases props. Their focused expertise may give you a deeper edge compared to someone betting across multiple sports and prop types. This level of precision helps you zero in on the strategies that matter most.

Conclusion: Mastering MLB Player Prop Betting

Success in MLB player prop betting hinges on thorough research, disciplined bankroll management, and using the right tools. What separates winning bettors from those who struggle is a commitment to methodical strategies and data-driven decision-making. This approach helps create a solid foundation for smarter, more effective bets.

Data-backed strategies are at the heart of long-term betting success. Tracking player performance metrics, factoring in park conditions, and comparing your analysis to sportsbook lines are essential steps before placing a wager. As Isaiah Sirois explains:

"Understanding park factors is a meaningful way for you to find an edge".

Establishing a 30-unit bankroll and sticking to consistent bet sizes can help protect against inevitable losses. Bettors who follow a systematic approach and heed expert advice often see better results than those relying solely on gut feelings.

BettorEdge’s peer-to-peer platform eliminates the house edge, while its social feed offers real-time insights and its analytics tools let you track performance. By setting your own odds based on detailed research, you can significantly increase your chances of making profitable bets.

Modern AI tools also play a key role, uncovering trends and patterns that might otherwise go unnoticed. With customizable filters and advanced statistical insights, these tools allow you to focus on the player metrics that matter most.

As Sol Fayerman-Hansen wisely points out:

"Betting should never be seen as a reliable way to generate income and should always be approached with moderation".

FAQs

How can advanced stats like exit velocity and launch angle help me make better MLB player prop bets?

How Advanced Stats Can Boost Your MLB Player Prop Bets

Metrics like exit velocity and launch angle are game-changers when it comes to betting on MLB player props. Let’s break them down:

Exit velocity measures how hard the ball is hit. For top hitters, speeds of 93–95 mph (or higher) are common, and these harder-hit balls are more likely to result in home runs or extra-base hits.
Launch angle tracks the ball's trajectory. The sweet spot? Between 25–35 degrees. This range often leads to optimal power and distance.

When you combine these two stats, you can pinpoint players with strong power-hitting potential. These are the players who are more likely to shine in props like hits, home runs, or total bases. By focusing on athletes who consistently excel in these metrics, you’ll make smarter, data-driven bets.

What should I consider when deciding to place MLB player prop bets early or closer to game time?

When deciding when to place MLB player prop bets, timing can make a big difference. The choice often comes down to weighing market shifts against the availability of information.

Placing your bets early can lock in favorable odds before they adjust due to public betting trends or breaking news. This strategy works well if you're confident in your research or spot value before others do. However, it does come with risks - unexpected events like injuries or lineup changes could throw off your predictions.

On the other hand, waiting until closer to game time allows you to make decisions with more up-to-date information. Details like player form, weather conditions, and lineup changes are clearer as the game approaches, which can sharpen your analysis. To make the most of this approach, pay attention to key factors such as pitcher-hitter matchups, recent performance trends, and any last-minute updates that might impact the game.

Ultimately, finding the right balance between early betting and waiting for more information can help you make smarter, more calculated wagers.

How does BettorEdge improve my betting experience compared to traditional sportsbooks?

BettorEdge offers a peer-to-peer betting platform where you can take control of your wagers by setting your own odds and trading bets directly with other users. Best of all, it eliminates the high sportsbook fees, like the vig (typically around 10%), giving you better value for your money.

The platform doesn’t stop there. It’s packed with detailed analytics tools that help you monitor your performance and make more informed betting choices. On top of that, BettorEdge adds a social twist with features like community bet sharing and leaderboards. This creates a more interactive and personalized experience, making betting not only smarter but also more enjoyable.