The Open Championship Preview, Picks and Predictions

Greg Kajewski
2 hours ago
14 min read

The 2025 Open Championship kicks off tomorrow, July 17, at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. This historic golf tournament, known for its challenging links courses and unpredictable weather, promises a thrilling competition. Here's what you need to know:

Dates: July 17–20, 2025
Venue: Royal Portrush Golf Club (Dunluce Course)
Prize Fund: $17,000,000, with $3,100,000 for the winner
Course Details: Par 71, 7,381 yards, featuring 57 bunkers and small, sloped greens
Weather Forecast: Rain (90% chance), wind (10–20 mph), temperatures between 57–69°F

Key Players and Betting Favorites:

Scottie Scheffler (+450): World No. 1 with elite ball-striking skills.
Rory McIlroy (+750): Local favorite with strong form and deep ties to Royal Portrush.
Jon Rahm (12-1): Consistent major performer with recent success on links courses.
Shane Lowry (25-1): 2019 Open Champion at Royal Portrush.
Tommy Fleetwood (25-1): Known for top finishes in past Opens.

Sleeper Picks:

Sepp Straka (40-1): Strong strokes-gained stats.
Jordan Spieth (60-1): Former Open Champion with excellent short game.
Hideki Matsuyama (90-1): Accuracy specialist suited for links challenges.

Royal Portrush's narrow fairways, elevated greens, and coastal winds demand precision, creativity, and mental toughness. With heavy rain and shifting conditions expected, the tournament will test even the best golfers. Betting strategies should focus on players with proven links success and adaptability to harsh weather.

Stay tuned for one of golf’s most unpredictable and exciting weeks!

Course Analysis and Major Storylines

2025 Host Course Breakdown

Royal Portrush Golf Club's Dunluce Course is a formidable test, even for seasoned Open Championship players. Stretching 7,381 yards with a par of 71, the course features 57 bunkers and greens averaging 5,700 square feet, demanding precision and skill on every shot.

The layout’s elevation changes and exposure to coastal winds make it a strategic challenge. Unlike flatter links courses, Royal Portrush forces players to contend with swirling winds and tight fairways. Covering just 24 acres with an average width of 28 yards, the fairways leave little room for error off the tee.

The course’s par-4s are particularly demanding, with five of the 11 measuring between 420 and 450 yards. These holes often require mid-irons into small, elevated greens. Standout holes include the 5th, known as "White Rock's", a 372-yard par-4, and the daunting 16th, "Calamity Corner", a 236-yard par-3 that can make or break a round depending on the wind.

"I have a real appreciation for how well bunkered it is off the tee. It's like, okay, well, I can hit a 2‑iron off the tee, but that brings this bunker into play. But then if I hit driver, it'll bring this bunker - so you have to take on the shot. You have to say, okay, I'm going to commit to hitting this shot and I just know I'm going to have to avoid the bunker."– Rory McIlroy

Adding to the complexity, the prevailing westerly and northwesterly winds create crosswinds on many holes, making club selection and shot execution particularly tricky. With its exposed design, the course’s conditions can shift dramatically during a round, ensuring no two rounds feel the same.

These elements combine to create a course that emphasizes strategy, precision, and adaptability, setting the stage for a gripping tournament.

Scoring Patterns and Weather Impact

At Royal Portrush, weather often plays a pivotal role in determining outcomes. The 2019 Open Championship is a prime example, where Shane Lowry triumphed by six strokes in challenging wet and windy conditions that separated the field.

Looking ahead to 2025, early rounds are expected to start under milder conditions, but rain on Thursday and Saturday, coupled with drier spells on Friday and Sunday, could shift the competitive dynamics. Such fluctuations in weather often create advantages - or challenges - for certain groups depending on their tee times.

The course’s small, sloped greens and elevation changes make putting a tough task, especially when the wind picks up. Players need to account for wind not only on approach shots but also on the greens themselves, where undulating surfaces amplify the challenge.

"I'm always surprised when I come here how much movement there is on the greens. The greens are quite slopey here for a links golf course. You're having to play two feet of break."– Rory McIlroy

Changing wind directions throughout the tournament can completely alter strategies for individual holes, making adaptability and course management critical assets. The unpredictable coastal weather typical of Ireland ensures that favorable tee times and conditions are hard to predict, adding another layer of intrigue to the competition.

Player Types That Succeed at The Open

Royal Portrush’s unique challenges mean that only a particular type of player thrives here. Unlike other major championships, this course rewards a specialized skill set. Players with strong ball-striking abilities, prior success on links courses, and a knack for adapting to unpredictable conditions tend to perform best.

Precision is non-negotiable. The narrow fairways, strategic bunkering, and compact greens severely punish errant shots. Players who rely heavily on precise yardages and high-tech tools might struggle with the guesswork required in unpredictable winds.

"It's just the mentality. I think, when you say links golf, it comes with weather, and when you play in bad weather, you have to have a good attitude. You have to visualize a lot more than just hitting your number on a machine."– Xander Schauffele

Short game expertise is equally critical. The elevated greens at Royal Portrush tend to repel balls, creating tricky up-and-down opportunities that reward creativity and finesse. Players who can control their ball flight and hit lower, penetrating shots in windy conditions gain a significant edge, while those with high ball flights often struggle.

Patience and strategic thinking are key to navigating this course. Players must embrace the challenge and accept that conditions will evolve throughout the round. Those who adapt and remain composed tend to find success.

"I think this golf course is a great test. It's very different from what I've seen from a lot of traditional links golf courses. There are a lot of more forced carries and doglegs. It does force you to play the ball in the air a bit more and test your ball‑striking."– Rickie Fowler

Finally, the presence of 19 LIV Golf players in the 2025 field adds an extra layer of intrigue. Their performances could influence Ryder Cup qualification and future major invitations. Despite being undervalued due to their tour affiliation, these players with proven major championship records might offer surprising betting opportunities.

Top Players and Betting Favorites

Leading Contenders and Current Odds

Scottie Scheffler leads the pack as the favorite with odds of +550, even though his experience on links courses is limited. His standout ball-striking skills will be put to the test at Royal Portrush, a course that demands precision and adaptability.

Rory McIlroy follows closely behind at +750. Currently in excellent form, McIlroy recently tied for second at the Scottish Open, delivering consistent rounds of 68-65-66-68. As one of Northern Ireland's most celebrated golfers, he also brings invaluable local knowledge to the table.

Jon Rahm, with odds of 12-1, remains a strong contender. He recently finished second at LIV Golf Andalucía and has been a steady performer in majors this year, including a T14 at the Masters, T8 at the PGA Championship, and T7 at the U.S. Open.

"Honestly, I probably hit it better than I have in the last year and a half. Started seeing some shots that reminded me of some other good weeks, and once I got it going today and I felt comfortable on the greens." – Jon Rahm

Player	Odds	Recent Form	Open History
Scottie Scheffler	+450	Strong overall form	Limited links experience
Rory McIlroy	+750	T2 at Scottish Open	2014 winner
Jon Rahm	12-1	2nd at LIV Golf Andalucía	Consistent major performer
Bryson DeChambeau	20-1	Strong LIV form	2019 Royal Portrush T8
Tommy Fleetwood	25-1	Solid recent play	Multiple Open top-10s
Xander Schauffele	25-1	Consistent form	Strong links record
Shane Lowry	25-1	Steady performance	2019 winner
Ludvig Åberg	25-1	Rising star	Limited Open experience
Tyrrell Hatton	25-1	T4 at U.S. Open	Career-best major form

These odds combine factors like recent form and past performances at The Open, offering bettors a balanced view of the field.

Sleeper Picks and Value Players

For those looking beyond the favorites, several players stand out as intriguing value options.

Sepp Straka (40-1): With strong strokes-gained metrics over the past six months, Straka trails only McIlroy and Scheffler in this key stat, making him a compelling choice.
Robert MacIntyre (35-1): Known for his links expertise, MacIntyre also brings a hometown edge to the competition.
Russell Henley (65-1): His well-rounded stats - 11th in approach play, 9th in bogey avoidance, 17th in driving accuracy, and 13th in scrambling over the last 36 rounds - make him a strong dark-horse contender.
Mackenzie Hughes (400-1): A true longshot, Hughes ranks first in scrambling over the past 36 rounds, offering high-risk, high-reward potential.

Among LIV Golf players, Tom McKibbin has gained attention with back-to-back T5 finishes in recent events. Meanwhile, Patrick Reed (90-1) brings major championship experience and extra motivation as he eyes Ryder Cup qualification.

"I think it all comes down to next week at The Open. Obviously play well here, but go ahead and win the Open Championship, and I believe I'd be inside the top 6 on points, so I think that would lock it in and allow me to be on the team." – Patrick Reed

Past Open Championship Results

Past performances at The Open provide valuable insights into the current betting landscape. Rory McIlroy's 2014 victory and Shane Lowry's 2019 triumph highlight their ability to excel on links courses. Similarly, Jon Rahm's consistent major finishes this year underscore his reliability as a contender.

Bryson DeChambeau's analytical approach to the game paid off with a T8 finish at Royal Portrush in 2019, while Tommy Fleetwood's repeated top-10 finishes at The Open further cement his reputation as a links specialist.

For bettors seeking creative options, the trio of Dean Burmester, Thriston Lawrence, and Laurie Canter have a perfect record of making the cut, offering a parlay opportunity at +356 for all three to advance to the weekend. These historical patterns and player trends provide valuable context for those crafting their betting strategies with BettorEdge.

The Open 2025 Update from Portrush: Picks, Weather, Tee Times & Notes from the Course

BettorEdge Peer-to-Peer Betting Strategies

Using BettorEdge's peer-to-peer platform can give you more control and potentially better returns when betting on the Open Championship.

How Peer-to-Peer Betting Works

BettorEdge operates as a no-vig marketplace, allowing bettors to trade directly with one another, cutting out the traditional bookmaker's edge.

Here’s why that matters: with traditional sportsbooks, the typical break-even rate is 52.4%, thanks to the 10% vig they charge. On BettorEdge, that drops to 50%, which can significantly boost your long-term profitability. You can either accept odds posted by other users or set your own and wait for someone to match them. For an event like The Open Championship, this setup often means better odds on top golfers and opportunities to find unique value.

Fees on BettorEdge are minimal. Free members can place up to $100 in no-vig bets each month, while premium members enjoy up to $750 monthly with no extra charges.

This direct trading model opens the door to creative betting strategies, especially for tournaments like The Open.

Open Championship Betting Approaches

The peer-to-peer format provides flexibility and control, which is particularly useful for betting on The Open Championship. By setting your own odds, you decide what prices you're willing to accept.

In weather-sensitive tournaments, this flexibility can be a game-changer. For example, you can post bets based on expected morning conditions before the market has time to adjust.

Another advantage is the option for early cash-outs. If the golfer you backed performs well in the early rounds, you can sell your position before the tournament ends, securing profits without waiting for the final leaderboard. Additionally, BettorEdge’s social features let you follow experienced golf bettors and track community betting trends. This can help you spot overlooked players or emerging favorites.

The platform also supports head-to-head betting and group competitions, letting you create custom matchups between players instead of sticking to outright winner bets.

These strategies work hand-in-hand with BettorEdge’s advanced tools.

Using BettorEdge Tools Effectively

BettorEdge’s tools, like the analytics dashboard and live scoring integration, provide real-time updates and insights. These features help you adjust your strategy as conditions change during the tournament. This is especially useful for tracking player performance around key scoring holes.

Dynamic market pricing is another standout feature. Odds update in real time as the tournament progresses, giving you the chance to find value as public sentiment shifts. The live bet feed highlights trending bets, making it easier to see where the "smart money" is going.

For The Open Championship, focus on stats like ball-striking and putting to identify potential value bets. For instance, Tony Finau’s strong ball-striking performance at the 2024 Masters is the type of insight BettorEdge users can leverage when placing bets.

Feature	Open Championship Application
No-Vig Orders	Fee-free betting on golf markets for premium members
Direct Matching	Adjust odds on specific players as weather conditions evolve
Instant Settlement	Receive payouts in real time as rounds conclude
Live Market Pricing	Stay updated as odds shift dynamically throughout the tournament

The platform’s bet-sharing feature makes betting a collaborative experience. You can share your Open Championship picks with the community, allowing successful strategies to spread quickly. Premium members also gain access to advanced filtering tools like BetMatch, which helps pinpoint the best odds across user-generated offerings.

Predictions and Best Bets

With Royal Portrush's challenging layout and unpredictable weather, the 2025 Open Championship promises exciting betting opportunities. Here's a closer look at the top contenders and value picks.

Winner Predictions and Top 10 Picks

Scottie Scheffler leads the pack with +450 odds, and it’s easy to see why. As the world No. 1, his precision with second shots and creative playstyle make him a standout choice. His ability to manage the course effectively positions him as a top favorite.

Rory McIlroy, with odds of +700, combines immense talent with a deep connection to Royal Portrush, his home turf. His links golf experience and exceptional ball-striking could pave the way for another major win.

Jon Rahm at +1200 offers solid value. His proven track record in major championships and ability to perform under tough conditions make him a reliable pick for a top-10 finish.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2800) is another strong option. Known for his consistent top-20 finishes, the Englishman’s links golf skills are well-suited for this course.

Viktor Hovland is an intriguing choice, especially after bouncing back from a withdrawal with an 11th-place finish at the Scottish Open. SportsLine Golf Expert Eric Cohen highlights Hovland's recent form:

"In his last three events, including the WD, Hovland has gained a combined 22 shots on approach, which is my favorite measure of predicted success. The Norwegian finished solo 3rd at the season's third major at Oakmont, gaining nearly 15 shots tee to green in the process. With three top-13 finishes in four Open Championship starts, this finishing position might actually be a notch too low for Hovland, who has solid upside."

These top picks provide a strong foundation, but longshot options could offer even greater rewards.

Best Value Bets and Longshot Options

The Open Championship has a reputation for delivering surprises, with three of the last six winners coming in at odds of +6000 or higher.

Shane Lowry at +3000 is a compelling choice. His victory at Royal Portrush in 2019 as a 30-1 longshot showcases his ability to thrive in major tournaments.

Jordan Spieth, available at +6000, offers excellent value. A former Open Champion, Spieth’s T-20 finish at Royal Portrush and mastery of links conditions make him a strong contender despite his earlier slump this year.

Justin Thomas (+5500) is showing signs of a resurgence. With improved putting and a history of success in majors, he’s a tempting mid-range longshot.

For those looking at even longer odds, Hideki Matsuyama at 90-1 stands out. His accuracy and steady approach are ideal for a course like Royal Portrush. Additionally, Nick Taylor (+17500) and Andrew Novak (+20000) offer extreme value for bettors willing to take a chance on players with precision-focused games.

Player	Odds	Key Strengths
Shane Lowry	+3000	2019 Royal Portrush winner, links expert
Jordan Spieth	+6000	Former Open Champion, elite short game
Justin Thomas	+5500	Major experience, improving form
Hideki Matsuyama	90-1	Accuracy specialist, methodical approach
Nick Taylor	175-1	Precision player, career-best form

BettorEdge Market Trends

BettorEdge's real-time marketplace sheds light on betting trends for the Open Championship. Their dynamic platform reveals where both casual and sharp bettors are placing their wagers.

So far, favorites like Scheffler and McIlroy are drawing significant attention from recreational bettors. Meanwhile, experienced bettors are focusing on the +2000 to +6000 range, where players like Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry are gaining traction. BettorEdge’s social feed reflects this interest, with discussions highlighting these players' links expertise and recent performances.

What makes BettorEdge particularly appealing is its 50% break-even rate - lower than the 52.4% required by traditional sportsbooks - offering more room for profitable betting. Their community leaderboards also spotlight top-performing bettors who prioritize metrics like strokes gained on approach and links golf proficiency, aligning with expert insights favoring precision over raw power at Royal Portrush. These tools complement earlier analyses of the course’s unique demands, providing valuable support for bettors seeking an edge.

Final Thoughts and Betting Tips

Main Points to Remember

The 2025 Open at Royal Portrush is shaping up to be a tournament where precision and expertise on links courses will outweigh raw power. With weather conditions likely to play a big role, players who excel in ball control and scrambling are expected to have an edge.

Rory McIlroy stands out as a top contender, especially with the emotional significance of playing on his home turf. Betting analyst Pamela Maldonado captures this perfectly:

"No one brings more emotional weight to Royal Portrush than Rory. It's his home turf and after a gutting missed cut in 2019, this return is personal".

McIlroy's history at Royal Portrush, including his incredible 61 at age 16, combined with his current form, makes him a strong pick despite the added pressure.

Jon Rahm's track record in majors is equally hard to ignore. With top-15 finishes in the past four majors and three top-7 finishes at The Open in the last four years, his consistency makes him a solid bet at +1200 odds.

Viktor Hovland also deserves attention. His ranking as second on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach highlights the kind of precision that is crucial at Royal Portrush.

For those looking for value picks, longshots with proven links experience are worth considering. Jordan Spieth, who has never missed a cut at The Open, offers tremendous value at 60-1 odds. Similarly, Tyrell Hatton, with a T6 finish at Royal Portrush in 2019 and a strong links record, is an appealing each-way option at 28-1.

These insights provide a solid foundation for refining your bets as the tournament approaches.

Last-Minute Betting Advice

With these key takeaways in mind, make sure to fine-tune your bets before the action kicks off. Pay close attention to the latest weather forecasts - challenging conditions will favor players who excel in course management and precision over those who rely on distance alone.

Leverage tools like BettorEdge to identify top-performing bettors who prioritize stats like approach play and links expertise. This can help refine your strategy further.

Diversify your bets to cover different outcomes. Consider outright winners, top-10 finishes, and head-to-head matchups to spread your risk. For example, Tommy Fleetwood's +260 odds for a top-10 finish and Adam Scott's +290 for a top-20 offer solid opportunities in these markets.

Stick to your research, seize value where you find it, and let smart tools guide your decisions for a more informed betting experience.

FAQs

How does the unpredictable weather at Royal Portrush affect betting strategies for the 2025 Open Championship?

Weather's Impact on Betting Strategies at Royal Portrush

The unpredictable weather at Royal Portrush is more than just a backdrop for the 2025 Open Championship - it’s a game-changer. Frequent rain and strong coastal winds can dramatically influence how the course plays, reshaping both player performance and betting strategies. For example, rain can soften the greens, making them more receptive to approach shots, while also altering ball flight. On the other hand, strong winds test a golfer's ability to choose the right club and execute precise shots, especially on a links-style course like this.

When placing bets, it’s smart to focus on players who have consistently performed well in challenging weather and on links courses. These are the golfers who know how to handle unpredictable conditions and make the necessary adjustments. Also, keeping an eye on real-time weather updates is key. Early rounds often see sudden shifts in conditions, and bettors who adapt their strategies based on the latest forecasts can gain an edge in this ever-changing environment.

Why is Royal Portrush considered a tough course, and what player skills are key to succeeding there?

Royal Portrush has earned a reputation for being a tough challenge, thanks to its classic links-style layout. The course is fully exposed to coastal winds that often exceed 20 mph, making every shot unpredictable. To succeed, golfers must have exceptional control over their shot trajectory and the skill to shape shots as needed.

Adding to the challenge are its rolling fairways, deep bunkers, and small, elevated greens. These features demand pinpoint distance control and carefully planned shot placement. Mastering this course means adjusting to the wind, executing low-flight shots, and approaching the tricky greens with precision and skill.

What makes BettorEdge's peer-to-peer platform a better choice for betting on The Open Championship compared to traditional sportsbooks?

BettorEdge’s peer-to-peer platform stands out from traditional sportsbooks by cutting out the house edge and hefty fees. This approach lets users keep more of their winnings - up to 40% more - making every wager far more rewarding.

What sets BettorEdge apart is its flexibility. You can set your own odds and bet directly with other users, creating a betting experience that’s both transparent and fair. On top of that, the platform offers social features like real-time bet sharing and strategy discussions, adding a sense of community to the mix. These elements don’t just make betting more enjoyable - they also make it smarter. Whether you’re betting on The Open Championship or any other event, BettorEdge gives you better control, lower costs, and a more interactive way to play.