UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan runs Saturday, October 31, 2026 at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, a 12-fight Halloween card headlined by No. 12 Renato Moicano and No. 14 Tom Nolan in a five-round lightweight main event. It is a ranked fight between a 37-year-old former title challenger and a 26-year-old Australian on a five-fight win streak, and it is Nolan's first UFC headliner. Moicano was supposed to rematch Brian Ortega at UFC 331 in September until Ortega pulled out with a cut, so this bout was built on short-ish notice for both men. Below it sits a ranked women's bantamweight fight between Yana Santos and Luana Santos, and an unbeaten welterweight stepping in on the main card. Here is the complete card bout by bout, every start time, the main event breakdown, and where the BettorEdge community board stands.
Moicano vs. Nolan fight card: who is fighting on October 31
Twelve bouts across two segments. Card as of October 27, and it is not final until the fighters make weight on Friday. It has already moved four times. Jacobe Smith replaced the injured Carlos Leal against Randy Brown. Dakota Hope replaced Gaston Bolanos against Francis Marshall after Bolanos suffered an eye cut in training. Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden and Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall were added, and Azamat Bekoev vs. Andre Petroski came off the card after Bekoev suffered a medical emergency. The order below matches the UFC's own event page, cross-checked against Wikipedia and Sherdog.
Main card
| Bout | Weight class |
|---|---|
| Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan | Lightweight (main event, five rounds) |
| Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith | Welterweight |
| Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden | Flyweight |
| Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos | Women's bantamweight |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov | Welterweight |
Prelims
| Bout | Weight class |
|---|---|
| Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope | Featherweight |
| Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren | Welterweight |
| Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee | Featherweight |
| Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall | Middleweight |
| Nick Klein vs. Joseph Kropschot | Middleweight |
| Talita Alencar vs. Piera Rodriguez | Women's strawweight |
| Lucia Szabova vs. Tainara Lisboa | Women's flyweight |
There is no separate early prelims block on this card as of October 27. The UFC lists all seven undercard bouts as one prelim segment.
How to watch UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Event: UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan (UFC Vegas 123, also listed as UFC Fight Night 292)
Date: Saturday, October 31, 2026
Venue: Meta Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Prelims: 5 p.m. ET, 4 p.m. CT, 2 p.m. PT
Main card: 8 p.m. ET, 7 p.m. CT, 5 p.m. PT
Watch: the full card streams on Paramount+ in the United States; Sportsnet+ carries it in Canada
Both segments stream on Paramount+, which holds the UFC's United States rights for 2026, and there is no pay-per-view charge on a Fight Night. The Apex is the UFC's small studio room, so expect no crowd noise to speak of and a smaller cage than the arena shows, which tends to suit the fighter who wants to close distance. Clocks fall back the next morning, but Saturday night still runs on daylight time, so the windows above hold. With five bouts on the main card, the main event walk should land somewhere around 10:30 p.m. ET, 7:30 p.m. PT, depending on how many finishes come ahead of it.
Read the line, then beat it.
Once you can read a price you can spot a bad one. BettorEdge shows real peer-to-peer odds, and they are often better than the book you would get stuck with.
Moicano vs. Nolan: the main event breakdown
Renato Moicano (21-7-1) is 37, from Brasilia, and trains at American Top Team. He is a jiu-jitsu fighter first: per his UFC profile, 11 of his 21 wins came by submission. His 2024 run is why he is still ranked. He outpointed Drew Dober, came back from a knockdown to stop Jalin Turner at UFC 300, and beat Benoit Saint Denis by doctor stoppage in Paris. That earned him a short-notice title shot against Islam Makhachev at UFC 311 in January 2025, which ended in a first-round submission loss. A unanimous decision loss to Beneil Dariush followed at UFC 317. He stopped the skid in April with a second-round submission of Chris Duncan in a Fight Night main event, the fight in the video above.
Tom Nolan (11-1) is 26, from Toowoomba in Queensland, and fights out of Brisbane. He is a former rugby league player who earned his contract with a first-round knockout on Dana White's Contender Series in 2023. His only career loss is his UFC debut, a first-round TKO against Nikolas Motta in January 2024. Since then he has won five straight: a first-round TKO of Victor Martinez, decisions over Alex Reyes and Viacheslav Borshchev, a first-round rear-naked choke of Charlie Campbell in Perth that earned Performance of the Night, and a unanimous decision over Fares Ziam in June. His record splits five knockouts, one submission and five decisions.
The tape is a real contrast. Nolan is listed several inches taller, though the reach gap is small: 73 inches to Moicano's 72, per the UFC. Eleven years separate them. The UFC's career stat averages, which are the split to read here rather than a fight-by-fight number, have Nolan landing 4.84 significant strikes per minute to Moicano's 4.10, and Moicano attempting more takedowns at 1.68 per 15 minutes to Nolan's 1.08.
Moicano's path. Make it a grappling fight. He has the deeper submission game, the more experience in main events, and a history of grinding rounds out from top position, as he did against Dober. Nolan is a tall lightweight headed into his first UFC main event, and a veteran wants to drag that kind of opponent into deep water. If Moicano can get Nolan to the mat early and make him carry weight, rounds four and five become his rounds.
Nolan's path. Use the frame. Keep Moicano at the end of his punches and kicks, punish the level change with knees, and win minutes on volume. Moicano was knocked down by Turner before coming back, and the Makhachev and Dariush losses showed that elite opponents can control him. Nolan is not that, yet, but he is younger, busier on the feet and has submitted someone himself. If the first two rounds stay standing, the fight tilts toward the younger man.
Moicano has more ways to win and more experience in the five-round format. Nolan has youth, height, volume and a five-fight streak. The question Saturday is whether Moicano can get it to the mat before Nolan's output starts to add up.
Moicano vs. Nolan odds: where the community board stands
Straight with you. As of 12:32 p.m. UTC on Tuesday, October 27, the BettorEdge community board had priced both sides of the main event and nothing else on the card. Nobody had posted a live community price on the other four main-card bouts or on any of the seven prelims.
| Bout | BettorEdge community odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Moicano vs. Nolan | Moicano -122, Nolan -100 (even money) | 55% / 50% |
| Brown vs. Smith | No community price posted | - |
| Osbourne vs. Durden | No community price posted | - |
| Y. Santos vs. L. Santos | No community price posted | - |
| Lebosnoyani vs. Hasanov | No community price posted | - |
The two main event prices add up to 105%, which is just the gap between the best offer on each side, not a house margin. Read it as a fight the community sees as close to a coin flip with Moicano a slight favorite. Peer-to-peer fight liquidity fills in late, after weigh-ins clear and the card stops moving, so expect the bare bouts to fill in by Friday. Convert any price before you compare. Run the number through the implied probability calculator and the moneyline calculator, then decide whether your read on the fight beats that percentage. The no-vig calculator strips the built-in margin out of any house board you want to measure against.
What each price asks you to believe
Moicano at -122 asks you to believe the grappling shows up. At 55%, you are betting that a 37-year-old with 11 career submission wins can get a taller, younger man down and keep him there over a 25-minute fight. His April win over Duncan says the submission game is still sharp. His two losses before that, to Makhachev and Dariush, say the top of the division can neutralize it.
Nolan at even money asks you to believe the streak is real. At 50%, you are betting that five straight wins against a rising level of opposition carry into a first main event against arguably the best grappler he has faced. Nolan's only loss came early in his UFC run, and he has shown he can win both inside the distance and over three rounds. The unknown is rounds four and five, which he has never been asked to fight in the UFC.
Both cases are reasonable, which is why the community has the fight close. Your edge, if you have one, comes from how you weigh age against experience. The UFC betting guide walks through how to build that read.
The underdog and method-of-victory angle
How Moicano wins is not a mystery. Per his UFC profile, 52% of his career wins came by submission, 38% by decision and 10% by knockout. Treat that as a career split, not a prediction, but it frames the method question: if Moicano wins, a submission or a decision covers most of the ways it happens. Nolan's wins split evenly between knockouts and decisions, with one submission. The method of victory guide covers how to bet how a fight ends rather than who wins it, which is often the more interesting question on a fight priced this close.
Jacobe Smith is the name to know on the undercard. Smith (13-0) stepped in for Carlos Leal on short notice and, per Heavy.com, has finished all four of his UFC opponents. Randy Brown (20-8) is a veteran who has lost two straight and gone 1-3 in his last four. The question for anyone looking at Brown is whether experience covers the gap in recent form.
The Santos fight is ranked, and it is the closest thing to a co-main. Yana Santos (17-8) is No. 6 and Luana Santos (11-2) is No. 7 in the women's bantamweight rankings, per the UFC's event page. A win here moves either woman closer to a top-five spot.
Two more main-card bouts round it out. Ode' Osbourne (13-9) and Cody Durden (18-11-1) were first booked for UFC 329 in July before Osbourne withdrew injured, so this is a rebooking at flyweight. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (11-2) opens the main card against Farman Hasanov, who is unbeaten. Unbeaten newer names are one of the things a community board most often misprices, in both directions, so wait for a number before forming a view.
Back Moicano vs. Nolan on BettorEdge
A ranked lightweight main event with a clear age and style contrast, a top-seven women's bantamweight fight, and an unbeaten welterweight stepping in on short notice, all on Halloween night. Get your action on BettorEdge and back your fighter against another real bettor at a community price, with up to $100 available when you verify your ID and no deposit needed.
Tools to check before you back a fighter
Know the math before locking anything in. Turn a price into a true win probability with the implied probability calculator, strip the built-in margin out of any board with the no-vig calculator, and size your payout with the betting calculator. Every announced card sits on the BettorEdge UFC hub, the prelims vs. main card guide covers how betting the undercard differs from the headliners, and the weight cut guide explains what happens to your bet if Friday's weigh-ins change the card.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan FAQ
Who is fighting at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan?
Renato Moicano fights Tom Nolan in a five-round lightweight main event, above a main card of Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith, Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden, Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos, and Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov. The prelims are Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope, Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren, Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee, Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall, Nick Klein vs. Joseph Kropschot, Talita Alencar vs. Piera Rodriguez, and Lucia Szabova vs. Tainara Lisboa. That is 12 bouts, as of October 27, 2026.
When is UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan and how can I watch it?
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan is Saturday, October 31, 2026 at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, streaming on Paramount+ in the United States. Prelims start at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT) and the main card at 8 p.m. ET, 7 p.m. CT and 5 p.m. PT.
Is Moicano vs. Nolan a ranked fight?
Yes, Renato Moicano is No. 12 and Tom Nolan is No. 14 in the UFC's lightweight rankings as listed on the event page. It is not a title fight, but it is Nolan's first UFC main event and Moicano's first fight since April.
Why is Moicano not fighting Brian Ortega?
Brian Ortega withdrew from their UFC 331 rematch in September with a cut, so the UFC moved Moicano to this card against Tom Nolan. It was the second time a Moicano vs. Ortega rematch fell through in 2026.
What time is the Moicano vs. Nolan main event?
The main card starts at 8 p.m. ET and Moicano vs. Nolan is the last of five bouts on it, so the walk typically lands around 10:30 p.m. ET, or 7:30 p.m. PT. The exact time depends on how many earlier fights end inside the distance.
What are the odds for Moicano vs. Nolan?
As of 12:32 p.m. UTC on October 27, 2026, BettorEdge community odds had Renato Moicano at -122 and Tom Nolan at -100 (even money). Community fight liquidity typically fills in once weigh-ins clear, so check the live board closer to Saturday.
How do I bet on UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan?
Pick your fighter and place a moneyline on BettorEdge against another real bettor at a community price rather than a sportsbook's. New users can get up to $100 after verifying their ID, with no deposit needed.
The bottom line
Moicano vs. Nolan is a ranked lightweight fight that turns on one question: can the veteran get it to the mat? Moicano has the submissions, the main event experience and the better resume. Nolan has eleven years on him, a height edge, more output on the feet and a five-fight streak. The Santos fight is ranked, Jacobe Smith brings an unbeaten record into a short-notice spot, and two rebooked or replaced bouts round out the main card. Twelve fights, two segments, four changes already, and a community board that has only priced the headliner. Watch the weigh-ins, then watch the prices.
Compare prices before the first prelim
Fight boards move fastest after the weigh-ins and again on fight-day morning. See the live BettorEdge board, back your Moicano vs. Nolan pick peer to peer, and grab up to $100 when you verify your ID. Better odds. You keep more.
Read the line, then beat it.
Once you can read a price you can spot a bad one. BettorEdge shows real peer-to-peer odds, and they are often better than the book you would get stuck with.