Betting on Waste Management Phoenix Open
- Feb 3
- 12 min read
The Waste Management Phoenix Open (Feb 5–8, 2026) at TPC Scottsdale is a top PGA Tour event, drawing over 600,000 fans annually. With a $9.6M purse and a challenging par-71 course, it’s a prime opportunity for bettors. Key highlights:
Scottie Scheffler, a two-time winner at this event, enters as the favorite after a January 2026 win.
Recent champions like Thomas Detry (2025) and Nick Taylor (2024) showcase the importance of course familiarity and strong form.
Historical trends: 8 of the last 10 winners had top-7 finishes in prior Scottsdale appearances, and 9 were major or THE PLAYERS champions.
BettorEdge, a peer-to-peer platform, offers social betting, ensuring better odds and higher payouts. Key strategies include focusing on players with strong Par 4 stats, leveraging community insights, and tracking market activity for value. Whether betting on outright winners or head-to-head matchups, this event rewards smart, data-driven decisions.
2026 WM Phoenix Open Favorites and Betting Odds
Top Contenders to Win
Scottie Scheffler leads the pack as the favorite for 2026. The current World No. 1 has a stellar history at this event, winning in both 2022 and 2023. Even with a T25 finish in 2025, his odds of +275 reflected his dominance at TPC Scottsdale.
Justin Rose is another name to watch. Fresh off a commanding seven-stroke victory at the Farmers Insurance Open on February 1, 2026, he’s entering the tournament in excellent form.
Defending champion Thomas Detry is also a key contender. His impressive -24 score in 2025 earned him the title and a $1,656,000 payday.
Other notable players in the field include Hideki Matsuyama, a past winner at TPC Scottsdale, along with Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa (ranked World No. 18). The 2026 event boasts a stacked lineup, featuring 10 of the Top-20 players in the Official World Golf Ranking and 10 major champions.
Value Picks and Longshot Candidates
For bettors looking for value, Nick Taylor is a standout option. He won this tournament in 2024 with odds of +12,500 and was the runner-up in 2023. As a Scottsdale local, Taylor thrives in the high-energy environment of TPC Scottsdale.
Sam Burns also presents strong value. With a T3 finish in 2024 and T6 in 2023, Burns has consistently delivered at this course. He’s recorded back-to-back rounds of 64 at TPC Scottsdale and is currently ranked World No. 27, with a T7 position in the FedExCup standings.
Ryan Gerard is another intriguing pick. Despite not yet securing a win in 2026, he leads the PGA Tour in earnings as of February 2, showcasing his consistency and potential.
Additionally, Daniel Berger and Michael Kim both finished T2 in 2025 with scores of -17, proving their ability to go low at this venue.
"Only one winner had pre-tournament odds over +5000 in the last decade. [Nick] Taylor again was the one last year." - Keith Stewart, PGA Professional
These players offer a mix of proven performance and potential, making them worth considering for those looking to capitalize on longer odds.
Finding Odds and Market Data on BettorEdge
BettorEdge provides a peer-to-peer platform where you can compare real-time odds and secure the best possible prices. Unlike traditional sportsbooks that often inflate odds, BettorEdge allows you to evaluate multiple offers on the same player, ensuring you get better value.
The platform also offers community-driven insights, showing betting trends across the field. For instance, if public sentiment heavily favors Scheffler due to his past success, you’ll find better odds on players like Burns or Rose, who come in with strong recent performances. As the tournament approaches, you can monitor shifting odds to ensure you’re making informed decisions.
Peer-to-Peer Betting Strategies for the WM Phoenix Open
How Peer-to-Peer Betting Works
Peer-to-peer betting on BettorEdge connects you directly with other bettors, cutting out the middleman. Instead of dealing with a traditional sportsbook, you can either accept someone else’s price or set your own. This creates a transparent marketplace where the house edge is minimized.
Here’s the key difference: while traditional sportsbooks typically include a hefty 15% to 18% commission in their lines, peer-to-peer platforms operate with much lower commissions - usually around 1% to 2%. Over the course of a tournament like the WM Phoenix Open, this can make a big difference, especially if you’re placing multiple bets on outright winners, head-to-head matchups, or other markets. This setup not only maximizes your potential returns but also opens the door for more strategic betting tailored specifically to this event.
Golf Tournament Betting Strategies
When it comes to the WM Phoenix Open, a data-driven approach can give you a real edge. TPC Scottsdale, the tournament’s home course, is known for being one of the most predictive stops on the PGA TOUR. In other words, past performance and course-specific stats matter here more than at most events. One stat to pay close attention to: winners at TPC Scottsdale typically gain an 11-stroke advantage on Par 4s. So, focusing on players who excel in this area is a smart move.
Head-to-head matchups are another area where you can find value. Prioritize players with strong Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (T2G) stats, especially when they’re up against opponents who’ve been inconsistent or are recovering from injuries. If two players have similar odds, lean toward the one who’s shown an 8+ stroke gain in recent rounds at Scottsdale.
For those looking for safer bets, markets like "Top 20" or "Top 40" finishes can offer reliable returns. These options might not have the massive payouts of outright winner bets, but they’re less risky and can still provide good value within the peer-to-peer framework.
Here’s another crucial insight: 9 of the last 10 winners at this event had already won a major championship or THE PLAYERS, and 8 of the last 10 had previously finished 7th or better at TPC Scottsdale. Keeping this "elite archetype" in mind can help narrow down your options when choosing who to back.
Using Community Data to Inform Your Bets
One of the biggest advantages of a social betting platform like BettorEdge is the ability to tap into community insights. You can see what experienced bettors are backing and get a sense of why they’re making those choices. For instance, if a player like Scottie Scheffler is drawing a lot of attention due to his proven success at the WM Phoenix Open, you might find better prices on other strong contenders who aren’t as publicly favored.
Pay close attention to bettors who specialize in Strokes Gained metrics that align with TPC Scottsdale’s challenges. Since the course rewards precision in iron play and approach shots, following users who focus on SG: Approach and SG: Ball Striking can uncover valuable insights you might not have considered. Additionally, shared picks can reveal trends, such as a community preference for players who excel on Bermudagrass greens.
Community-driven analysis can also help you spot overlooked opportunities. For example, if a heavy favorite is dominating the outright winner market, savvy bettors often shift their focus to "Without Scheffler" markets or long-shot players with strong course history. Combining these shared insights with your own research can lead to a well-rounded and more informed betting strategy.
Finding Better Prices Through Social Betting Markets
Understanding Social Betting Markets
Most traditional sportsbooks include a 4%–6% vig (or commission) in their odds. For example, in a 50/50 market, instead of offering fair odds of 2.00, sportsbooks typically list both sides at 1.90. While this might seem minor, the difference adds up quickly, especially when placing multiple bets during an event like the WM Phoenix Open, where you’re wagering on outright winners, matchups, and props.
BettorEdge changes the game by connecting bettors directly, allowing them to set their own prices through bids and offers. The platform itself simply facilitates the match - it doesn’t take the opposing side of your bet. By removing the standard 5% vig, you pocket an extra $10 for every $100 winning stake. Over a four-day tournament filled with betting opportunities, those savings can make a big difference.
Here’s a striking example: Over a year-long simulation, a bettor placing 20 wagers per week at $100 each, with a 53% win rate (508-452 record), earned $5,760 in a social betting market. The same record in a traditional sportsbook market, with an 8% commission, resulted in a net loss of $1,800. That’s a $7,560 swing in potential returns. At an event like the WM Phoenix Open, these improved margins can significantly boost your overall profits.
To take advantage of this social betting model, start by exploring BettorEdge’s order book.
Comparing Prices on BettorEdge
BettorEdge not only lowers the high vig, but it also helps you find the best prices by showing real-time market data. Before placing any bets, compare odds from traditional sportsbooks to establish a baseline for fair value. For instance, if Hideki Matsuyama is listed at +4000 on DraftKings, check BettorEdge’s marketplace to see if a better price is available.
The platform’s order book displays current bids and asks for specific golfers, helping you identify where there’s market activity and what other bettors are willing to pay. Let’s say you’re interested in Billy Horschel, who’s listed at +5500 on FanDuel but +6600 on BetRivers. BettorEdge might offer an even better price - or allow you to set your own ask and wait for another bettor to match it.
Another key factor to monitor is implied win probabilities, which can shift throughout the week. For example, Scottie Scheffler’s +333 odds in 2025 translated to an implied win probability of 23.09%. If you believe his actual chances are better - or worse - based on recent performance or course-specific stats, you can either accept the listed prices or post your own. This is where the social betting marketplace shines: instead of battling against a sportsbook’s built-in margin, you’re negotiating directly with other bettors who might see things differently.
A smart strategy is to aim for at least a 2% margin between your calculated no-vig line and the available market price before placing a bet. This ensures you’re getting enough value to make the bet worthwhile. For an event like the WM Phoenix Open, where TPC Scottsdale ranks as the third most predictive course on the PGA Tour, using course-specific data to identify value in the peer-to-peer marketplace can give you a significant advantage.
Setting Up Groups and Competitions for the WM Phoenix Open
Creating Custom Groups and Betting Pools
BettorEdge makes it simple to transform the WM Phoenix Open into a social event. Whether you're setting up Head-to-Head Challenges, private markets with custom stakes and rules, fantasy leagues, or organized groups, the platform takes care of the matching and settlement process automatically.
If you're planning a private betting pool for the February 5–8, 2026 tournament, it’s easy to get started. Use the head-to-head challenge feature to define your group’s rules and stakes. You can even link a group chat directly to your pool, creating a space to coordinate challenges, share insights on TPC Scottsdale’s course conditions, and debate lines in real time. A group-specific leaderboard lets everyone track wins and ROI throughout the event. This functionality is especially useful given the course's history - six recent winners finished inside the top seven in one of their three most recent appearances.
TPC Scottsdale’s low scoring - like the 2025 winner finishing at -24 - opens up a variety of betting opportunities. With your custom pool ready, you can choose from different competition formats designed for golf betting.
Competition Formats for Golf Betting
Once your group is in place, you can dive into several competition formats to enhance the experience. The WM Phoenix Open’s lively atmosphere lends itself to a range of betting styles. For larger groups or ongoing engagement, Pick’em contests allow participants to create rosters of golfers or predict winners to earn points. If you’re looking for something more strategic, Auction Squares involve a bidding process to allocate limited picks. For smaller groups or one-on-one rivalries, Head-to-Head Challenges provide a straightforward way to set up peer-to-peer wagers with custom rules.
You can also incorporate official tournament pairings into your bets. For example, 3-ball challenges let participants wager on which of three golfers will post the lowest round score. Another option is Round 1 score props, where you bet on whether a player’s score will be over or under a set number, like 69.5.
"Keep it social. Play with friends. Learn the game and know the odds." - PGA TOUR
When organizing your competition, focus on golfers who have performed well at Scottsdale in the past. Players with top-seven finishes at this course are more likely to excel under the intense pressure - especially near the iconic 16th hole, "The Coliseum". The 2026 lineup includes stars like Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Sam Burns, providing plenty of big names to base your competitions around. These group contests align perfectly with BettorEdge’s community-focused, social betting marketplace, ensuring transparent and data-driven betting throughout the tournament.
Tracking Your Bets and Analyzing Performance
Bet Tracking Features on BettorEdge
BettorEdge makes it easy to keep tabs on your wagers, organizing bets by tournament, player, and type. This way, you can quickly revisit your winning strategies. During the February 5–8, 2026 event, you’ll have real-time access to your active positions, letting you compare the prices you secured against the broader marketplace.
The platform also provides advanced analytics, breaking down your performance with key metrics. For example, tracking stats like Par 4 performance - an essential indicator at TPC Scottsdale - can provide valuable insights. By diving into historical benchmarks, you can uncover patterns that help explain why you won or lost, not just if you did. This real-time data lays the foundation for a deeper analysis once the event concludes.
Using Analytics to Improve Your Betting
Once the tournament wraps up, BettorEdge’s post-event analytics can fine-tune your strategy. Building on the live data from your bets, the platform aligns your results with historical trends from TPC Scottsdale. Metrics like Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting are crucial here. For example, in 2024, Nick Taylor dominated SG: Putting with an impressive 8.934 and ranked 9th in SG: Approach at 5.118. If your bets targeted players excelling in these areas, your results will reflect that strategy.
Another valuable feature is the "performance history", which measures how well you’ve done historically by league/sports, team or market. This helps you understand the value you gained by using the peer-to-peer marketplace. Since the WM Phoenix Open is ranked as the third most predictive event on the PGA TOUR, the data you gather here can significantly enhance your approach to future tournaments. You can also track your ROI by bet type, pinpoint which formats delivered the best returns, and adjust your strategy for better outcomes moving forward.
WM Phoenix Open Betting & DFS Preview | Waste Management Phoenix Open | Inside Golf Podcast
Conclusion
The Waste Management Phoenix Open, running from February 5–8, 2026, blends the excitement of current competition with TPC Scottsdale's storied history. By using BettorEdge's peer-to-peer marketplace, you cut out the typical 4% to 6% vigorish that sportsbooks usually keep, meaning more of your winnings stay in your pocket.
With its social betting model, BettorEdge lets you bet directly against other users. This setup brings transparency, allowing you to see market trends clearly through the order book. Whether you're backing favorites like Scottie Scheffler or looking for hidden gems with a track record at TPC Scottsdale, this peer-to-peer system often delivers better odds compared to traditional sportsbooks.
"Social betting removes the high built-in sportsbook commission so winners take home payouts that more closely match the event's implied probability." - BettorEdge
Beyond competitive pricing, BettorEdge equips you with data-driven tools to enhance your betting strategy. Features like ROI tracking and win rate analytics help you refine your approach and make smarter decisions over time.
What really sets the platform apart is its focus on community. With custom groups and competitions, you can turn betting into a shared experience. Create private pools with friends, engage in tournament-specific chats for live updates, or climb public leaderboards to test your skills against others. From better pricing to strategic insights and social interaction, BettorEdge ensures you're set up for success at the WM Phoenix Open.
FAQs
Why is BettorEdge’s peer-to-peer platform a great choice for betting on the Waste Management Phoenix Open?
BettorEdge’s peer-to-peer platform is a game-changer for betting on the Waste Management Phoenix Open. By cutting out the high vig (the house commission), it offers you better value for your bets. Therefore, you get access to more competitive odds, which means a greater chance to boost your returns.
What sets BettorEdge apart is its focus on user-to-user betting. You can place wagers directly with others, giving you more control and flexibility. Whether you’re hunting for the best prices or setting up custom competitions, the platform lets you fine-tune your betting strategy for one of the most exciting events on the PGA Tour.
How do past performance and course stats at TPC Scottsdale shape betting strategies for the WM Phoenix Open?
Analyzing how players have performed in the past - both in recent tournaments and specifically at TPC Scottsdale - can offer key insights for betting on the WM Phoenix Open. Golfers who have consistently finished strong here or have been in good form leading up to the event often have an edge.
TPC Scottsdale's layout, with its mix of risk-reward holes, places a premium on accuracy and strategic shot-making. These skills are especially important when assessing potential winners.
By zeroing in on players who thrive in these areas and have a history of steady performance at this course, bettors can make smarter picks and boost their odds of success.
Why is Par 4 performance so important for predicting winners at the WM Phoenix Open?
Par 4 performance plays a major role in determining success at the WM Phoenix Open. The course layout places a strong emphasis on precision and strategy, especially on these holes. Players who excel on Par 4s often find themselves in contention, as these holes require a careful balance of risk and reward to create birdie chances.
What makes Par 4s so crucial? It's all about accuracy. Hitting precise approach shots and landing the ball close to the pin are essential. These factors make Par 4 performance a reliable measure of which players are likely to shine throughout the tournament.
