Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Prediction, Odds, & How to Watch Dec 19 Fight
- Greg Kajewski
- 1 day ago
- 11 min read
Jake Paul faces Anthony Joshua on December 19, 2025, in Miami, marking Paul’s first bout against an active elite heavyweight. Joshua, a two-time heavyweight champion with 25 KOs in 28 wins, is heavily favored (-1300 odds) against Paul, who enters as a +700 underdog. The fight is an eight-round heavyweight match, with Joshua’s size, reach, and experience towering over Paul’s record of 12–1.
Key Details:
Date/Time: Dec 19, 2025; Main card at 8 PM ET, ring walks around 10:30 PM ET.
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida.
Streaming: Available exclusively on Netflix, included with subscription.
Betting Odds: Joshua (-1300); Paul (+700).
Prediction: Joshua is expected to win via KO in Round 2, capitalizing on his size and power. Bettors might explore props like "Joshua by KO/TKO" (-360 to -475) or "Joshua to win in Round 2" (+350). For a safer option, consider the over/under rounds set at 2.5.
This event is a high-stakes clash between a seasoned champion and a rising star, with financial stakes reportedly exceeding $184 million.
Fight Details and Schedule
Date, Time, and Location
Mark your calendar for Friday, December 19, 2025, as the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, hosts this highly anticipated showdown. The doors open at 4:00 PM ET, with prelims kicking off shortly after at 4:45 PM ET (1:45 PM PT). The main card action begins at 8:00 PM ET (5:00 PM PT), and the fighters are expected to make their ring walks for the main event between 10:30 and 11:00 PM ET.
This professional heavyweight bout is scheduled for eight three-minute rounds. Both fighters will wear standard 10-ounce gloves, typical for the heavyweight division. Notably, Anthony Joshua is contractually required to weigh no more than 245 pounds during the official weigh-in.
With these details in place, the stage is set for a matchup that promises to bring new challenges and dynamics to Jake Paul’s career.
What Makes This Fight Different
This isn’t just another fight - it’s a clash with a storyline that sets it apart. Jake Paul will face Anthony Joshua, an active heavyweight powerhouse. Joshua’s resume speaks for itself: a two-time unified heavyweight champion, Olympic gold medalist, and owner of 25 knockouts.
For Paul, this fight marks a leap from the cruiserweight division (around 200 lbs) into the heavyweight ranks. The physical differences are stark: Joshua holds a five-inch height advantage and a six-inch reach advantage. Add in the betting odds (+700 for Paul, -1300 for Joshua), and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
For bettors, it’s an intriguing scenario - a massive underdog with knockout power taking on a seasoned champion eager to bounce back after his knockout loss to Daniel Dubois in September 2024.
Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Press Conference (FULL)
Fighter Breakdown and Matchup Analysis
Jake Paul: Record and Fighting Style
Jake Paul, now 28 years old, steps into this fight with a professional record of 12–1, including 7 knockouts. His sole loss came at the hands of Tommy Fury in February 2023. For this bout, Paul is expected to weigh in at around 220 pounds, a significant increase from his usual cruiserweight range. Despite the added weight, Paul leans on his speed, quick footwork, and what he describes as "delusional optimism" to offset the size disadvantage. Standing at 6′1″ with a 76-inch reach, Paul aims to use his agility and movement to outmaneuver his larger opponent.
"I believe that fighting a smaller man is often times harder for a heavyweight because of the speed difference and because of the foot speed, because of the angles. All that power is great. I just have to avoid that one shot."Jake Paul
Paul’s career has often been characterized by matchups against retired MMA fighters and aging boxers. Among his notable victories are a win over a 58-year-old Mike Tyson in November 2024 and a unanimous decision over Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in June 2025. These wins, while headline-grabbing, contrast sharply with the experience and pedigree of Anthony Joshua.
Anthony Joshua: Experience and Power
Anthony Joshua brings a wealth of experience to this fight, boasting a record of 28–4 with 25 knockouts - an impressive 89% knockout rate. At 36 years old, Joshua stands 6′6″ with an 82-inch reach, giving him a 5-inch height and 6-inch reach advantage over Paul. A two-time unified heavyweight champion and 2012 Olympic gold medalist, Joshua’s resume includes victories over elite opponents like Wladimir Klitschko. For this fight, a weight clause caps him at a maximum of 245 pounds.
"I know the person that's in front of me. I'm going to take your soul in the ring."Anthony Joshua
That said, Joshua enters this fight after a 14-month hiatus following a knockout loss to Daniel Dubois in September 2024. Adding to the challenges, he underwent elbow surgery during this time. To gear up for his return, Joshua has been training in Spain with Oleksandr Usyk's team. Former champion Hasim Rahman weighed in on the stakes:
"I feel like if Anthony Joshua don't go in there and manhandle (Paul) and maul him and get him out of there in one or two rounds, then we got some questions to be asked."Hasim Rahman
Side-by-Side Fighter Comparison
Here’s a look at how the two fighters stack up:
Feature | Jake Paul | Anthony Joshua |
Age | 28 | 36 |
Record | 12–1 (7 KOs) | 28–4 (25 KOs) |
Height | 6′1″ | 6′6″ |
Reach | 76″ | 82″ |
Weight (Expected) | ~220 lbs | Max 245 lbs |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Last Fight | UD win vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. | KO loss vs. Daniel Dubois |
Experience Level | Influencer Boxer | Former 2-Time Unified Champion |
The physical differences between the two are striking. Joshua has fought in more than double the number of professional bouts (32 compared to Paul’s 13). His knockout rate, calculated as knockouts divided by total fights, stands at around 78%, significantly higher than Paul’s 54%. Most importantly, Paul’s limited experience against high-level opponents is a glaring contrast to Joshua’s battles with some of the best heavyweights in the sport.
Betting Odds and Market Opportunities
Moneyline Odds and What They Mean
Anthony Joshua is stepping into this fight as the overwhelming favorite, with moneyline odds ranging from -1100 to -1300. For odds of -1300, you’d need to bet $1,300 just to win $100 - indicating a 92.31% implied chance of victory for Joshua. On the flip side, Jake Paul’s odds are +700, meaning a $100 bet would net $700 if he pulls off the upset. A draw is priced at +1800, making it an extremely unlikely scenario.
These odds reflect the stark difference in their fight histories. Joshua’s career is built on a solid foundation of professional boxing success, while Paul’s record, largely consisting of matches against retired athletes and MMA fighters, leaves sportsbooks less confident in his chances.
For bettors looking to explore beyond the moneyline, there are plenty of other betting options to consider.
Prop Bets Worth Considering
If you’re seeking alternatives to the standard moneyline bet, prop bets provide an exciting way to dive deeper into the action. One popular option is betting on "Joshua by KO/TKO", which is priced between -360 and -475. These odds underline the expectation that Joshua might finish the fight early.
For those who want to take an even bolder approach, round-specific bets are available. For example, betting on "Joshua to win in Round 1" offers odds of +280, while "Joshua to win in Round 2" is priced at +350. Additionally, the fight’s total rounds line is set at 2.5, with the "Over" slightly favored at odds ranging from -140 to -160.
If you think the streaming platform hosting the fight might want to stretch the action to keep viewers engaged before airing NFL games on Christmas Day, "Joshua by decision" at +450 could be a tempting long shot.
For the thrill-seekers, there are high-risk, high-reward options like "both fighters to be knocked down" at +800 or "either boxer winning in the first 60 seconds" at +1000. These props showcase the variety of wagering opportunities available for this event.
Betting on BettorEdge
While traditional sportsbooks set fixed odds, BettorEdge offers a more flexible and potentially rewarding alternative. Instead of betting against the house, BettorEdge operates as a peer-to-peer marketplace, allowing users to trade bets directly with one another. This setup lets you customize odds and potentially secure better pricing. For instance, the steep fees associated with heavy favorites like Joshua at -1300 can eat into your returns, but BettorEdge’s lower fees and live trading options give you more control over your bets.
Beyond better odds, BettorEdge provides tools to track your betting performance and social features to follow other bettors’ picks and strategies. In a fight with such unbalanced odds, the ability to negotiate prices or adjust your position mid-fight could make a noticeable difference in your overall profits.
Outcome | Odds (FanDuel/DraftKings) | Implied Probability |
Anthony Joshua to win | -1300 | 92.9% |
Jake Paul to win | +700 | 12.5% |
Draw | +1800 | 5.3% |
Joshua by KO/TKO | -360 | 78.3% |
Paul by KO/TKO | +1100 | 8.3% |
Fight Prediction and Betting Approach
How Each Fighter Can Win
Anthony Joshua's game plan is clear - use his size, reach, and technical skills to dominate early. With his powerful jab and straight right, Joshua can keep Paul on the defensive and chip away at his guard. His track record speaks for itself: 25 knockouts in 28 victories. Add to that the experience of 32 professional fights, and Joshua has the ability to spot any weaknesses in Paul's defense and exploit them quickly.
On the other hand, Paul's best shot at an upset lies in his speed and stamina. To have any chance, he needs to weather the storm of Joshua's early offense. If Paul can endure the initial rounds, he might be able to use his overhand right to catch Joshua off guard as fatigue sets in. These contrasting strategies make for an intriguing matchup.
Final Prediction
Anthony Joshua is predicted to win by knockout in Round 2. While Joshua himself has said it would feel like a "failure" if he doesn't finish Paul in the first round, Paul's durability suggests it might take an extra round for Joshua to find his rhythm. Expect Joshua to spend the first round establishing his jab and gauging the distance before unleashing his signature power shots.
For betting, here’s the breakdown: wager on Joshua to win by knockout in Round 2 at +350 on BettorEdge. Another solid option is the KO/TKO/DQ bet, which ranges from -360 to -475 and aligns with the expected outcome. For a hedge, consider the Over 2.5 rounds prop at -115. BettorEdge’s peer-to-peer marketplace gives you the chance to negotiate better odds, making every percentage point work in your favor.
How to Watch in the United States
Streaming and TV Options
The highly anticipated Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight will be available exclusively on Netflix in the United States and worldwide. There’s no need for a traditional TV broadcast or an extra pay-per-view fee - this event is included with any Netflix subscription. The action kicks off with the preliminary card at 4:45 p.m. ET (1:45 p.m. PT) on Tudum, Netflix's dedicated streaming platform, while the main card starts at 8:00 p.m. ET (5:00 p.m. PT) on the Netflix app. The main event ring walks are expected around 10:00 p.m. ET. Simply log into Netflix, find the event on the homepage, and tap the "Remind Me" bell to stay updated.
The broadcast team includes a star-studded lineup featuring Kate Scott, Lennox Lewis, Laila Ali, Andre Ward, Mauro Ranallo, David Haye, and Crystina Poncher. Considering Jake Paul's previous fight with Mike Tyson drew in 108 million viewers, it’s smart to prepare for heavy streaming traffic. Make sure your Netflix app is updated and your internet connection is solid to avoid interruptions. If you’d rather enjoy the fight live or in a festive group setting, there are more options below.
Attending Live or Hosting a Watch Party
The fight will take place at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, which can hold up to 20,000 fans. Tickets are available through official venue outlets for those who want to experience the electrifying atmosphere in person.
If staying home sounds more appealing, why not host a watch party? Prepare for a long evening by arranging plenty of seating and a good viewing setup. Stock up on snacks and drinks to keep everyone fueled. Since most viewers will tune in for the main card at 8:00 p.m. ET, plan your party schedule around that time.
Live Betting During the Fight
For those who enjoy adding a bit of excitement to the action, live betting is available through BettorEdge. You can place bets during the fight, track outcomes in real time, and even join group chats to discuss wagers as the event unfolds. It’s a fun way to stay engaged while watching the drama unfold in the ring.
Conclusion
The Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight on December 19, 2025, is shaping up to be one of the most talked-about boxing events of the year. With Joshua's imposing physicality, extensive professional experience, and knockout power, he's the clear favorite heading into the match. On the other hand, Paul steps into the ring as the underdog, facing what many believe will be his toughest test yet. This dynamic creates not only an intriguing storyline but also plenty of opportunities for strategic bets and an electrifying night of entertainment.
If you're planning to tune in, the viewing process couldn't be simpler. The fight will be available to stream on Netflix at no extra cost, with the main card kicking off at 8:00 p.m. ET. Keep in mind, streaming traffic is expected to be heavy - Jake Paul's last heavyweight bout against Mike Tyson drew a staggering 108 million viewers.
For those interested in betting, Anthony Joshua's favored status opens the door to a range of options, from straightforward moneyline bets to more specific prop bets like predicting a KO/TKO or choosing the exact round. The over/under set at 2.5 rounds hints at the likelihood of an early finish. BettorEdge adds another layer of excitement by offering a social betting platform where you can follow live odds, chat with other fans, and place bets in real time. Whether you're watching solo or with friends, it’s a great way to stay engaged throughout the fight.
Whether you're rooting for the seasoned heavyweight champion or hoping Jake Paul pulls off a shocking upset, BettorEdge provides the tools to make smarter bets. Download the app, explore the betting marketplace, and get ready for what promises to be an unforgettable night of boxing action in Miami.
FAQs
How could Jake Paul overcome Anthony Joshua's size and experience advantage?
Jake Paul is taking on a major test as he moves up from cruiserweight to face Anthony Joshua, a former heavyweight champion with multiple titles to his name. The size gap between the two is massive, and Joshua's deep well of experience in high-pressure bouts makes this an even steeper climb for Paul.
Though Paul's camp hasn’t shared any specific game plan, it’s safe to assume they’re banking on his speed, agility, and unpredictable style to offset Joshua's raw power and technical expertise. That said, the odds heavily favor Joshua, with many betting markets reflecting the belief that his size and experience will be a mountain too high for Paul to scale.
What are the challenges and benefits of streaming the Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight live on Netflix?
Streaming a live boxing match like Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua on Netflix marks a bold departure from the usual pay-per-view or cable setups. Netflix, known for its on-demand content, faces new challenges with live streaming. These include ensuring a seamless, high-quality experience for millions of viewers tuning in at the same time and incorporating live features like real-time scores or interactive elements.
But this collaboration also brings exciting possibilities. With Netflix’s massive global subscriber base, the fight can reach a far wider audience, sidestepping the regional limitations often tied to pay-per-view. Plus, Netflix’s powerful recommendation algorithms could draw in casual viewers who wouldn’t normally watch boxing, making this a standout moment for both the platform and the sport.
What are some smart betting strategies for the Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua fight?
Anthony Joshua enters as the heavy favorite with odds of -1300 (meaning you'd need to risk $1,300 to win $100), while Jake Paul is a major underdog at +700 (a $100 bet could return $700). The over/under for total rounds is set at 2.5, with odds of -122 for the under and -110 for the over. These numbers hint at a short, decisive fight, likely leaning in Joshua's favor.
If you're looking for value, a small bet on Paul at +700 could be a bold, high-risk option. To offset some of that risk, you might consider pairing it with a larger bet on Joshua. For instance, a $20 wager on Paul (which would yield $140 in profit if he wins) combined with a $200 bet on Joshua (for a $15 profit if he wins) caps your potential loss at $80 while leaving room for a sizable win if Paul pulls off the upset.
For those expecting a quick finish, betting the under 2.5 rounds might be a smart play. On the other hand, if you think the fight could stretch out, the over 2.5 rounds at -110 could offer a slight edge. Feeling adventurous? A prop bet on a first-minute knockout at +1000 could deliver a big payout for a small stake. Whatever your approach, remember to manage your bankroll carefully to balance potential rewards with the risks involved.
