Parlay Strategy: When (and When Not) to Use Parlays in Your Bets

Greg Kajewski
Sep 2
13 min read

Parlay bets combine multiple wagers into one, offering the chance for bigger payouts - but at higher risk. Every leg must win for a payout, making them a gamble that can either multiply your winnings or wipe out your bet entirely. Here are the key points:

How Parlays Work: Combine multiple bets into one ticket for larger payouts. For example, a $10 three-leg parlay at +700 odds can return $70 in profit versus $30 from separate bets. But if one leg loses, the entire bet is lost.
When to Use Them: Parlays are best for correlated bets (like pairing a team’s spread with the game total) or when exploiting market inefficiencies. Same-game parlays also allow creative combinations within a single event.
When to Avoid Them: Avoid parlays with too many legs or when chasing losses. The odds of winning decrease significantly with each added leg, and relying on parlays for quick wins can drain your bankroll.
Managing Risk: Bet small percentages of your bankroll (0.5%-1% per parlay) and track your wins and losses. Use hedging strategies to lock in profits if most legs of your parlay hit.

Parlays are thrilling but risky. Use them sparingly and strategically to keep your betting sustainable.

How Parlays Work

What Is a Parlay?

A parlay is a single bet that combines multiple individual wagers - referred to as "legs" - into one ticket. To win, every leg of the parlay must be successful. For example, if you’re eyeing three NFL games this Sunday, you could either place three separate $10 bets or combine all three picks into a $10 parlay. The advantage of separate bets is that you can still see a return even if one wager loses. In contrast, a parlay requires all legs to succeed, making it a higher-risk, higher-reward option.

What makes parlays so appealing is how they multiply potential winnings. The odds for each leg are compounded, resulting in significantly larger payouts compared to single bets. For instance, a three-leg parlay with even odds (+100) for each leg would pay out at around +700 odds, rather than the +100 you’d get from a single wager. In practical terms, a $10 parlay could result in roughly $70 in profit. However, this comes with the added challenge of needing every leg to hit.

Parlays on Peer-to-Peer Platforms

On BettorEdge, you can place bets directly against other users, bypassing the traditional house edge thanks to their no-vig model. This setup also allows you to customize odds for your parlay bets. For example, if you think a three-leg NFL parlay should pay +800 instead of the standard +700, you can set those odds and wait for another user to take the opposite side.

The platform also allows you to create custom bet combinations that traditional sportsbooks might not offer. Let’s say you want to combine a player prop, a game total, and a moneyline wager into a single parlay - you can do that and set your own price. Additionally, if two legs of your parlay have already won, you have the option to lock in some profit by selling your parlay back to the community at a price you determine.

Basic Mechanics and Example

Let’s break down how a simple three-leg parlay works. Imagine you’re betting on these NFL picks:

Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 at -110 odds
Over 47.5 points in the Dolphins vs. Bills game at -110 odds
Green Bay Packers moneyline at +120 odds

First, convert each of these odds into decimal form:

-110 odds convert to approximately 1.91.
+120 odds convert to approximately 2.20.

Now, multiply these decimal odds: 1.91 × 1.91 × 2.20 = approximately 8.02.

This translates to about +702 in American odds. If you placed a $100 parlay on these three legs, you’d profit around $702 (with a total return of $802, including your original stake) if all three bets hit.

Compare this to betting each game individually. If you divide your $100 stake equally - roughly $33.33 per bet - and all three bets win, you’d see the following returns:

Each -110 wager would yield about $30 in profit ($33.33 × (1.91 - 1)).
The +120 wager would yield about $40 in profit ($33.33 × (2.20 - 1)).

In total, you’d make around $100 in profit from the three separate bets.

Here’s the trade-off: with a parlay, you need all legs to win. If, for instance, the Chiefs cover and the game goes over, but the Packers lose, your entire $100 parlay is wiped out. On the other hand, with separate bets, even if one leg fails, you’d still walk away with a profit from the two winning bets - around $27 after accounting for the losing wager.

This example underscores the allure and risk of parlays. They offer the chance for much larger payouts, but the stakes are higher since one missed leg means losing the entire bet. Up next, we’ll dive into how and when parlays can fit into your betting strategy.

The Math Behind Parlays - Profitable Sports Betting Strategies

When to Use Parlays

Parlays come with a higher level of risk, but when used strategically, they can lead to impressive payouts. Knowing when to use them is key to managing risk while improving your betting outcomes. Let’s dive into scenarios where parlays make the most sense.

Maximizing Returns with Correlated Bets

One of the smartest ways to use parlays is by combining - situations where the outcome of one bet increases the likelihood of another. Beyond these natural connections, market inefficiencies can also create opportunities for profitable parlay setups.

For example, data from major sports highlights strong correlations. In the NFL, when a favorite covers the first-half spread, they go on to cover the full-game spread 73.3% of the time. Similarly, underdogs that cover the first half maintain that momentum 76.7% of the time.

In college football, large favorites often show similar trends. Teams favored by 30+ points cover the spread and push the total over 70% of the time, with that figure rising to 71.3% for 35-point favorites that cover. Basketball offers a twist: in the NBA, when double-digit favorites cover the spread, the hits 52.5% of the time, increasing to 56.2% for 15-point favorites that cover.

These stats show how carefully selected parlays can shift the risk-reward equation in your favor.

Using Market Inefficiencies

By taking advantage of BettorEdge's no-vig model, you can exploit mispriced correlations and set your own odds. This allows you to access true odds and better prices from other bettors. Research suggests that combining three individual bets with a +5% expected value (EV) each can result in a parlay with a +12% EV. Most bettors stick to parlays with three or four legs to maintain a good balance between risk and reward.

Benefits of Same-Game Parlays

Same-game parlays offer another powerful tool by letting you combine multiple related outcomes within a single game. This approach works particularly well when you have a strong sense of how a game will play out. For instance, you might pair a team’s point spread with the over on total points and a related player prop. These combinations often capitalize on game-specific narratives that the broader market may overlook.

On BettorEdge, you can craft custom same-game parlays that go beyond what traditional sportsbooks offer. If other users disagree with your wager, they can take the opposite side, creating a market-driven betting experience. Plus, you have the option to lock in profits during the game by selling your parlay if it’s trending in the right direction.

When to Avoid Parlays

Parlays can be enticing with their promise of big payouts, but knowing when to steer clear of them is just as important. While they offer the allure of substantial rewards, their risks can quickly drain your bankroll if not approached carefully.

The Risk of Adding More Legs

The more legs you add to a parlay, the harder it becomes to break even. For example, the breakeven percentage drops from 27.4% for a two-leg parlay to just 14.4% for three legs. With each additional leg, the house edge multiplies, making it increasingly difficult to come out ahead.

Using Parlays to Chase Losses

One of the biggest pitfalls is using parlays as a way to recover losses. It’s tempting to think a single big win can erase past setbacks, but this approach often backfires. Betting larger amounts at worse odds in an attempt to "make it all back" usually leads to even greater losses.

"The typical bettor is betting into negative-EV situations, and they are compounding that edge and making it harder for themselves to win in the long run. If the odds of you winning get more and more minuscule, you're going to grind through your bankroll. There's a psychological effect when you're winning so infrequently." – Captain Jack Andrews

This psychological cycle - where rare big wins encourage riskier bets - can quickly spiral out of control, especially for bettors working with limited funds.

Misjudging the Payouts

The advertised payouts on parlays can be misleading. While they highlight the potential for massive returns, the actual chances of winning are far lower than they appear. For example, in January 2024, New Jersey sportsbooks reported a 19.9% hold on parlays, compared to just a –4.6% hold on standard single bets at –110 odds. This stark contrast shows how parlays are structured to heavily favor the house.

Many parlays are built with legs that have negative expected value, which only amplifies the risk. Unless every leg of the parlay has a positive expected value, the appealing payout is just a smokescreen for the mathematical disadvantage. For those with smaller bankrolls, this disconnect between perceived and actual value can lead to poor decisions, often resulting in betting more than they can afford. Recognizing this gap is key to making smarter, more disciplined wagers.

Risk vs. Reward in Parlays

Making smart parlay decisions means understanding the math behind the bets and practicing disciplined money management. While the possibility of big payouts can be tempting, seasoned sports bettors focus on the value of each individual wager and use strategies to protect their bankroll.

Calculating Expected Value (EV)

At the core of smart betting lies expected value (EV), which measures the average outcome of a wager over time. The formula is simple:(fair win probability) × (profit if win) – (fair loss probability) × (stake).

A positive EV signals a profitable bet in the long run, while a negative EV indicates a losing proposition. For parlays, it’s crucial to calculate the EV of each leg and ensure they all have a positive expectation. Here's an example: imagine an NFL game where the Baltimore Ravens are +150 underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs. If your analysis gives the Ravens a 42% chance of winning (compared to the implied 40% chance from the odds), the EV calculation would look like this:

Probability of Win = 42% = 0.42
Probability of Loss = 1 – 0.42 = 0.58
EV = (0.42 × 150) – (0.58 × 100)
EV = 63 – 58 = +5

This +5 EV means that, over time, you’d expect to make $5 for every $100 wagered. By stacking parlays with positive EV legs and combining this with disciplined bankroll management, you can make more informed betting decisions.

Bankroll Management for Parlays

Because parlays come with higher variance, managing your bankroll is even more important. Treat parlay bets as entertainment and wager a smaller percentage of your bankroll compared to straight bets.

"The importance of building and managing a bankroll cannot be understated if you plan on mitigating unnecessary risk and have the best chance for a solid return on investment (ROI)."– Staff, PGATOUR.COM

Start by dividing your bankroll into units - typically 1–5% per unit for straight bets. Conservative bettors might stick to 1–2%, while more aggressive ones may go up to 3–5%. For parlays, however, experienced bettors usually reduce their unit size even further, often wagering just 0.5–1% of their bankroll per parlay bet. For instance, with a $1,000 bankroll, if you normally wager $20 (2%) on straight bets, you might limit parlay bets to $5–10. This lets you enjoy the thrill of potential big payouts without putting your bankroll at unnecessary risk.

Stick to a flat betting strategy - wagering the same amount on each parlay - to maintain consistency. Avoid chasing losses or increasing bets after wins. Additionally, setting deposit limits and withdrawal benchmarks can help secure profits and prevent overspending.

"Bet with your head – not over it."– Staff, PGATOUR.COM

Hedging and Adjusting Parlays

Hedging is another way to protect your bankroll when most of your parlay legs have already won. It allows you to lock in profits or minimize losses. Here are some common hedging strategies:

Partial Cash-Outs: Many sportsbooks let you cash out part of your winnings before all legs are completed, giving you a chance to secure some profit while still leaving room for upside.
Manual Hedging: Place a counter-bet on the final leg (or remaining legs) at another sportsbook to offset potential losses if the original parlay doesn’t hit.
Progressive Hedging: Hedge incrementally by placing smaller bets after each successful leg to gradually lock in profits as uncertainty decreases.

Your decision to hedge should depend on factors like your risk tolerance, the potential payout size compared to your bankroll, and the specific details of the wager. By hedging selectively, you can reduce risk while still capturing a sizable portion of a parlay’s payout potential.

Pros and Cons of Parlays

When it comes to parlay betting, the stakes are high - both in terms of potential rewards and risks. Let’s break down the key advantages and disadvantages to help you decide when and how to use this strategy effectively. While parlays can offer the thrill of big wins, they also come with challenges that require careful consideration.

Comparison Table

Advantages	Disadvantages
High potential payouts - Small bets can lead to huge returns	Low probability of winning - One losing leg ruins the entire bet
Combines multiple bets - Simplifies betting into a single wager	Compounded risk - Each additional leg increases overall risk
Allows creative combinations - Use correlated outcomes and exploit inefficiencies	Difficult bankroll management - High variance makes consistent betting tough
No-vig options on BettorEdge - Avoid sportsbook fees with peer-to-peer betting	Can lead to reckless betting - Big payout potential may tempt poor decisions

The biggest appeal of parlays lies in their potential for massive payouts. For example, a five-leg parlay can transform a small wager into a significant win. This makes parlays attractive for bettors looking to maximize returns without putting a lot of money on the line.

That said, the odds are heavily stacked against you. Adding more legs to a parlay drastically reduces your chances of winning. Even skilled bettors struggle with the mathematical reality that every additional selection increases the difficulty of hitting the entire bet.

Parlays also open the door to unique betting strategies. Options like same-game parlays or correlated outcomes allow for creative combinations that aren’t possible with straight bets. Additionally, platforms like BettorEdge eliminate sportsbook margins, offering a no-vig model that can boost your returns.

On the flip side, parlays make bankroll management a challenge. The high variance means you’re likely to face longer losing streaks and more dramatic swings in your betting account. This volatility can be tough to handle, especially for those new to betting or without a disciplined strategy.

Perhaps the biggest risk is the temptation to bet recklessly. The allure of a big payout can lead bettors to chase losses with riskier parlays or wager more than they can afford, hoping for one big win to wipe out previous losses.

To use parlays wisely, they should be a small part of your overall betting strategy, not the main focus. Reserve them for situations where you’ve identified clear advantages, such as correlated bets or market inefficiencies. Always pair them with disciplined bankroll management and realistic expectations about long-term outcomes. Understanding these trade-offs will help you incorporate parlays responsibly into your betting approach.

Making Smart Decisions with Parlays

The secret to making parlay bets work in your favor lies in knowing when you truly have an edge and when you're simply chasing a big payday. Parlays are most effective when you can spot correlated outcomes or take advantage of market inefficiencies. For instance, pairing a favorite’s spread with the over in the same game can work well because of the statistical relationship between those outcomes.

Market inefficiencies offer your best opportunities. If you notice a weak line at a sportsbook, using that bet in a parlay can boost your potential returns. But to do this successfully, you’ll need strong handicapping skills and a sharp understanding of the market - luck alone won’t cut it.

Platforms like BettorEdge provide an edge by using a peer-to-peer, no-vig model. Without the typical sportsbook margins, you keep more of your winnings. Plus, you can set custom odds and find better value by betting directly with other users.

While these strategies can help, managing your bankroll is just as important. Parlays come with high variance, so it’s wise to risk no more than 1–2% of your bankroll on a single parlay. Even the most skilled bettors can experience extended losing streaks with parlays compared to straight bets.

Another smart move is hedging your bets. If most legs of your parlay have already hit, placing a counter-bet on the final leg can lock in a profit. This approach reduces risk and turns a high-stakes situation into a more controlled outcome.

Tracking your bets is equally essential. Focus on situations where you have a clear advantage instead of chasing lottery-like payouts. Many bettors overestimate their chances of winning parlays, so don’t let the allure of huge payouts cloud your judgment.

With BettorEdge's social features and analytics, you can monitor your parlay performance separately from straight bets. This data can reveal whether parlays are actually profitable for your style or if single-game wagers are a better fit. The platform’s transparency also lets you learn from successful bettors while avoiding common pitfalls that lead to losses.

Parlay betting demands discipline, careful selection, and realistic expectations. Used wisely, parlays can complement your overall betting strategy. But if approached recklessly, they can quickly deplete your bankroll. Combine these tactics with earlier tips on identifying favorable parlays to maintain a balanced and effective betting strategy.

FAQs

How can I identify correlated bets that work well in parlays?

To identify correlated bets for your parlays, focus on scenarios where outcomes are likely to impact each other. Take a football game, for example: if heavy rain is expected, it makes sense to bet on both a lower total score and fewer passing yards, as poor weather can limit offensive play. Another example? If a team with a high-powered offense is up against a weak defense, you might combine bets on that team winning and scoring over a certain number of points.

Pay attention to factors like weather, injuries, and travel fatigue, as well as trends in past performance. Spotting these connections can help you craft parlays that align with logical outcomes, increasing your chances of success. That said, correlated bets often come with increased risks, so it’s essential to weigh your potential rewards against your overall betting strategy and bankroll.

What’s the best way to manage my bankroll when placing parlay bets to avoid big losses?

To keep your bankroll in check while placing parlay bets and cutting down on losses, it’s smart to stick to betting a small slice of your total bankroll - typically 1-2% per parlay. This way, even if things don’t go your way, your overall funds stay intact.

Maintain a consistent betting unit based on your bankroll, and resist the urge to increase your wagers after a win or to chase losses during a rough patch. Discipline is your best friend here. Keeping a record of all your bets and reviewing your performance regularly can help you stay on track and fine-tune your approach. By setting clear limits and focusing on long-term stability, you can enjoy betting without putting yourself in financial trouble.

What are the advantages of using BettorEdge for placing parlay bets?

Using BettorEdge for parlay bets offers some standout perks. Since it operates as a peer-to-peer platform, you get access to better odds and reduced fees, as there’s no house edge cutting into your potential winnings. This setup means more of your money is working for you, increasing your chances of higher returns.

On top of that, BettorEdge puts you in the driver’s seat by giving you more control over your bets and ensuring clear, transparent transactions. The platform also encourages a sense of community, allowing you to connect with other bettors, exchange strategies, and sharpen your skills. It’s a smarter, more interactive way to approach parlay betting while staying focused on your goals and managing your bankroll effectively.